Is this crisis almost the end of the US?
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The US wold go back to what it was in the first half of the 20th century. A weak dollar, isolationist in an ecconomic (and political sense) and consuming a lot less. They would also have to onshore their manufacturing and consume their own products. They can do this of course, and have been for a few years now, by printing a lot of dollar currency. (Un)fortunately it pushes up imports. Great for home producers, bad for the price of oil. This is one of the reasons the US has to get of oil or open up oil fields in Alaska and thr Arctic. IF it does this, it can let the dollar run to 4 or 5 to the euro, it will be exporting a lot of stuff to europe at that rate and unemployment will fall in the US as they get back to work producng and the economy overall be functioning well.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
his is one of the reasons the US has to get of oil or open up oil fields in Alaska and thr Arctic. IF it does this, it can let the dollar run to 4 or 5 to the euro
Just what do you smoke and when do you find time to smoke it? Extracting the oil from ANWR won't tangibly affect the price of oil.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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dan neely wrote:
Only if you view tinfoil as the height of fashion
I don't think Fat_Boy has ever forgiven the US for Gore's winning the Nobel prize.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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I believe this is only going to affect countries that rely on easy borrowing to function. Like the UK. I do not feel that Europe for example will be anywhere as nerly badly affected as the US and UK. Therejust isnt that much bad debt in the European system. It just cant exist. The quesiton for me is how far the UK goes. Its already slid off against the Euro, used to be 1.50, now its 1.25. Will it go to parity? Dont forget the UK already had to bail out a bank (and inject 40million into the banking system) somehting that hasnt yet happened on the Continent.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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As I write, France's Cac down 1% and Germany's Dax down 1.58% Europe will also be hard hit, perhaps not as bad as UK. But a whack on the head hurts just as much.
Mumbai has been hit, Brazil by 11%. But fundamentally this is an investment bank problem caused by bad debt in turn caused by easy borrowing. Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
I become Benevolent Leader for Life of the entire world after I seize control of the Swiss banking system. I'm working on it now, oops, I mean don't worry about it.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
Well...as long as you're benevolent; more specifically, as long as you're benevolent towards me. ;P ...right?
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Arguably, the United States, and consequently, the "free" world, is in recession. There will be no easy answers. Should the United States take an insular view, the recession could last well after the next Presidential election in 2012. The glimmer of hope is that China might use some of its resources to help reduce the intensity of the recession by assuming the role that America did once own - namely the Financial & Economic powerhouse of this world. There's a thought - Communist China coming to the rescue of a Capitalist World !!!!
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Arguably, the United States, and consequently, the "free" world, is in recession
only if you change the definition of the word, "recession" - from 2 quarters of negative growth to something that matches what took place yesterday and will probably take place today.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
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Not unless you work in finance and/or all your assets are tied up in financial sector stock. If you've got a pile of cash under the mattress along with a few gold bars you're all set. I'm worried about it because it's going to consume all my time probably into next year.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
If you've got a pile of cash under the mattress along with a few gold bars you're all set.
Ah, that's good news! The very things I possess in great abundance. :cool:
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Well...as long as you're benevolent; more specifically, as long as you're benevolent towards me. ;P ...right?
Uh, yeah. Of course. I mean, that's what Benevolent Dictators for Life do. They're, like, Dictators ... but for life. And all Dictators for Life are, uh, "nice". So, yeah.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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73Zeppelin wrote:
If you've got a pile of cash under the mattress along with a few gold bars you're all set.
Ah, that's good news! The very things I possess in great abundance. :cool:
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Ah, that's good news! The very things I possess in great abundance.
Excellent. Where do you live?
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Ah, that's good news! The very things I possess in great abundance.
Excellent. Where do you live?
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Excellent. Where do you live?
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
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Uh, yeah. Of course. I mean, that's what Benevolent Dictators for Life do. They're, like, Dictators ... but for life. And all Dictators for Life are, uh, "nice". So, yeah.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
Good. And here I was worrying! :laugh: Silly me!
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Mumbai has been hit, Brazil by 11%. But fundamentally this is an investment bank problem caused by bad debt in turn caused by easy borrowing. Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US.
:laugh: Then why is my desk currently full of requests to determine potential exposures to Lehman debt? These are generally followed up by questions asking: if we are exposed, what's the current "fair price". Unfortunately, I can't answer the latter question and the first question is also busting my ass.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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fat_boy wrote:
Does this mean tighter lending, onshoring manufacturing, comsuming only home produced good
I hope so - along with a cancellation of our commitment to NATO, ANZUS and the UN, reneging on the ridiculous amounts of foreign aid being poured into Africa and declaring illegal aliens as being uncovered by any American law.
fat_boy wrote:
massively weakening the dollar
Already happened. Thats why the US is selling so much more to Europe these days.
fat_boy wrote:
People have been saying for decades the US is bankrupt.
You aren't under the impression that France, England, Germany or Italy are in a different boat, are you? Most of the western democracies learned how to vote themselves into a funny-money economy at just about the same time. I can't escape the feeling that you are gleeful about the present economic crisis as if you think that somehow Europe will be able to stand if the US drops to her knees.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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73Zeppelin wrote:
Excellent. Where do you live?
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
Area 51 is a ruse. I'm somewhere behind a secret door in the Gotthard tunnel with all the other Gnomes.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
US stock market meltdown -> leading to other stock market meltdowns, people and firms around the world holds investment in US market -> bankrupcy all around the world in financial firms -> people lose all their money in countries where their bank savings are not insured by the government -> poor and angry people -> recruited by terrorist -> !!!?
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fat_boy wrote:
his is one of the reasons the US has to get of oil or open up oil fields in Alaska and thr Arctic. IF it does this, it can let the dollar run to 4 or 5 to the euro
Just what do you smoke and when do you find time to smoke it? Extracting the oil from ANWR won't tangibly affect the price of oil.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Extracting the oil from ANWR won't tangibly affect the price of oil.
The more isolated the US is it will, but not for us, just for the US. The rest of the world would probably switch to Rubels or Euros to sell oil.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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Oakman wrote:
I don't think Fat_Boy has ever forgiven the US for Gore's winning the Nobel prize
LEAVING THE EMPIRE!
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
modified on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 8:37 AM
We'll come back if you'll agree to pay off our debts...;P
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We'll come back if you'll agree to pay off our debts...;P
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Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
Area 51 is a ruse. I'm somewhere behind a secret door in the Gotthard tunnel with all the other Gnomes.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
Ohh, we know where you are - trust me, we know all about you. Paranoid? You'd better be...:suss:
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As a young teenager, your parents should be able to protect you from the worst of the present ravages. So hopefully by the time you turn adult the matter should be history. But learn from history. When you become an adult do ... Don't spend what you don't own. Don't buy on credit unless it is an affordable mortgage. Save what you can. Invest in a Pensions scheme for your old age (yep I know it is a very long way off but you need to think about it sooner rather than later).
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
As a young teenager, your parents should be able to protect you from the worst of the present ravages.
Protection? Ha! I don't need protection, I AM INVINCIBLE!
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Don't spend what you don't own. Don't buy on credit unless it is an affordable mortgage. Save what you can. Invest in a Pensions scheme for your old age (yep I know it is a very long way off but you need to think about it sooner rather than later).
OK, I'll remember that. And I have a pretty good memory, believe me. :-\