Lets take a look back at what the UK MET office said this winter would be like.
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25 September 2008 The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year. Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning. Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people. The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people. [^] Well, they couldnt have got that more wrong. Just a month after this prediction it snowed in London. Three months after that the sea in the English Channel is freezing. So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy. And we are supposed to continue funding these fraudulent charlatans?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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25 September 2008 The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year. Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning. Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people. The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people. [^] Well, they couldnt have got that more wrong. Just a month after this prediction it snowed in London. Three months after that the sea in the English Channel is freezing. So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy. And we are supposed to continue funding these fraudulent charlatans?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy.
This must be the Readers Digest version of science you're describing.
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fat_boy wrote:
So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy.
This must be the Readers Digest version of science you're describing.
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25 September 2008 The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year. Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning. Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people. The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people. [^] Well, they couldnt have got that more wrong. Just a month after this prediction it snowed in London. Three months after that the sea in the English Channel is freezing. So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy. And we are supposed to continue funding these fraudulent charlatans?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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Johnny ² wrote:
This must be the Readers Digest version of science you're describing.
And how many 'versions' of science are there?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
Some people believe in Evolution. Some think it is 5 monkies butt-fucking a fish-squirrel. (qv South Park) Science is truth, whether palatable or not. When people hide the truth because it is not in their political interest, that is fascism. Here is a truth. Black People Make Shit Swimmers. Not politically correct, but accurate. By the same token, the thing that makes Black People Shit Swimmers is exactly the same thing that makes them Superb Sprinters, muscle density. Now some will castigate me for making what they perceive as a Racist Comment, but it is not, it is merely truth. Some feel it uncomfortable to say things like this, but if truth is to be respected, it must be said.
------------------------------------ "The greatest tragedy in mankind's entire history may be the hijacking of morality by religion" Arthur C Clarke
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5 day weather predictions are flakey at best. I don't understand why anyone takes these people seriously about whole season forecasts and climate "changes".
He who makes a beast out of himself gets rid of the pain of being a man
I know of a trading desk that makes book trades on the weather, mostly for hotel chains and the like. I don't know how they assess the odds risk but I'll try and find out.
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25 September 2008 The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year. Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning. Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people. The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people. [^] Well, they couldnt have got that more wrong. Just a month after this prediction it snowed in London. Three months after that the sea in the English Channel is freezing. So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy. And we are supposed to continue funding these fraudulent charlatans?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
According to the shite I had to read when learning meterology for my PPL, weather foercasting 6 hours ahead is pretty damn accurate. This is why the first thing you do when you wake up on a sunday morning and feel like going for a fly is get the weather. The met office are surprisingly accurate, even down to the wind speeds and directions, temperatures at varying heighhts therough the atmosphere and all at many spots across the UK. Any more than 12 hour forcasts are absolute rubbish. Especially for the UK. We have 3 major weather systems (roughly - Arctic, Continental & Atlantic) that actually drive our weather and its almost impossible to predict with any accuracy which one will dominate at a given time over, say, a week. Therefore, predictions in summer or autumn for our winter weather is useless, and based on 2 main factors - previous years, and world weather linked to ocean currents (such as the well known el nino). The MET office are very good at doing what they do best - providing vital information to aviation, maritime, emergency services etc. I agree that long term forecasts are as useful as a chocolate teapot. However, dont even get me started on funding of the BBC!
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25 September 2008 The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year. Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning. Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people. The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people. [^] Well, they couldnt have got that more wrong. Just a month after this prediction it snowed in London. Three months after that the sea in the English Channel is freezing. So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy. And we are supposed to continue funding these fraudulent charlatans?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
"suggests ", "likely"... so sad they didn't associate a probability with these predictions...As it says it the article, "we should still be prepared for the risk of colder spells at times"!
fat_boy wrote:
the sea in the English Channel is freezing
Where? The temperature of the Channel is 10° in Britanny[^]
I prefer the company of peasants because they have not been educated sufficiently to reason incorrectly. Fold with us! ¤ flickr
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"suggests ", "likely"... so sad they didn't associate a probability with these predictions...As it says it the article, "we should still be prepared for the risk of colder spells at times"!
fat_boy wrote:
the sea in the English Channel is freezing
Where? The temperature of the Channel is 10° in Britanny[^]
I prefer the company of peasants because they have not been educated sufficiently to reason incorrectly. Fold with us! ¤ flickr
Karl, the whole language of AGW is full of 'suggests' and 'likely' and '95% certain' but this doesnt stop them clamouring for restrictions on CO2 production.
Ka?l wrote:
Where?
Dorset, UK, coast. Look at my post a few pages back about sea ice.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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Karl, the whole language of AGW is full of 'suggests' and 'likely' and '95% certain' but this doesnt stop them clamouring for restrictions on CO2 production.
Ka?l wrote:
Where?
Dorset, UK, coast. Look at my post a few pages back about sea ice.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
First, about climate 'they' give a probability, when 'they' did not for the weather. Next, we don't have to wait to be 100% sure to begin to act: 'Prudence est mère de sureté' ("Caution is the mother of safety", Discretion is the better part of valour). When you jump from a cliff you may have 0.01% chance to survive. Would you then jump without thinking about the risk?
If you kill a whale, you get Greenpeace and Jacques Cousteau on your back, but wipe out sardines and you get a canning subsidy!
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Some people believe in Evolution. Some think it is 5 monkies butt-fucking a fish-squirrel. (qv South Park) Science is truth, whether palatable or not. When people hide the truth because it is not in their political interest, that is fascism. Here is a truth. Black People Make Shit Swimmers. Not politically correct, but accurate. By the same token, the thing that makes Black People Shit Swimmers is exactly the same thing that makes them Superb Sprinters, muscle density. Now some will castigate me for making what they perceive as a Racist Comment, but it is not, it is merely truth. Some feel it uncomfortable to say things like this, but if truth is to be respected, it must be said.
------------------------------------ "The greatest tragedy in mankind's entire history may be the hijacking of morality by religion" Arthur C Clarke
How can you say such a thing? I refer my learned colleague to the case of Eric The Eel[^]. Ahh, yeah ok :)
My new favourite phrase - "misdirected leisure activity"
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First, about climate 'they' give a probability, when 'they' did not for the weather. Next, we don't have to wait to be 100% sure to begin to act: 'Prudence est mère de sureté' ("Caution is the mother of safety", Discretion is the better part of valour). When you jump from a cliff you may have 0.01% chance to survive. Would you then jump without thinking about the risk?
If you kill a whale, you get Greenpeace and Jacques Cousteau on your back, but wipe out sardines and you get a canning subsidy!
KaЯl wrote:
Next, we don't have to wait to be 100% sure to begin to act: 'Prudence est mère de sureté' ("Caution is the mother of safety", Discretion is the better part of valour).
Okay fine. For the sake of the argument, lets grant your central premise. Since the studies I've seen on this issue suggest that to make any meaningful impact on CO2 (which may or may not be one of the causes of the stipulated Global Warming purported to be happening) we need to return to the levels of industrialization the world had reached by 1900. Not just in the west, where, at least, we could retain electricty in major population centers, but in India and China where they'd have to revert to a horse-and-man-power culture, and the Middle east where they need to return to a nomadic life centered around camels and goats while ignoring all that black stuff bubbling out of the ground. What quantity of safety AK47s and discretion Abrams Tanks are needed to accomplish this goal - which may, or may not have an impact on Global Warming?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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First, about climate 'they' give a probability, when 'they' did not for the weather. Next, we don't have to wait to be 100% sure to begin to act: 'Prudence est mère de sureté' ("Caution is the mother of safety", Discretion is the better part of valour). When you jump from a cliff you may have 0.01% chance to survive. Would you then jump without thinking about the risk?
If you kill a whale, you get Greenpeace and Jacques Cousteau on your back, but wipe out sardines and you get a canning subsidy!
If CO2 causes a problem, which IMO is very unlikely, we would be better off spending the money on lessening those impacts than trying to reduce CO2. Lets say that Africa has less consistent rainfall. Then we build them dams so they can manage the rain they do have better. This, and the extra crop yields produced by CO2 will be of more benefit to the people. However, while you still have wankers like Mugabe in power there isnt much point doing anytihng for the people since he will fuck them up in ways we can only guess at thus negating any benefit we can bring. However, if CO2 has any effect on climate we KNOW it will be of benefit to the temperate climes, incresing our growing season, reducing our need for energy, thus increasing our wealth, so we will be in a better position to pay for any dam construction in less temperate climes that might be afected. However, as can be witnessed by current climate, CO2 is NOT in chanrge. Something else is. This is also apparent from the post war period, where temps fell while CO2 rose. Clearly, CO2 is NOT driving temperature so there isnt any point limiting it untill we know what is.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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25 September 2008 The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year. Seasonal forecasts from the Met Office are used by many agencies across government, private and third sectors to help their long-term planning. Earlier this year, John Hirst, Chief Executive of the Met Office and Michael Lake CBE, Director General of Help the Aged, signed an agreement to explore ways in which the two organisations can actively use weather information to support the health and well-being of older people. The forecast of another mild winter across the UK has been welcomed by Help the Aged, who work with other agencies to support older people. [^] Well, they couldnt have got that more wrong. Just a month after this prediction it snowed in London. Three months after that the sea in the English Channel is freezing. So clearly thay have no idea what is driving weather. If they did they would have got it right. They are even less capable then of predicting climate, since climate is just weather over a long timescale. A long timescale is only going to add to inaccuracy. And we are supposed to continue funding these fraudulent charlatans?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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If CO2 causes a problem, which IMO is very unlikely, we would be better off spending the money on lessening those impacts than trying to reduce CO2. Lets say that Africa has less consistent rainfall. Then we build them dams so they can manage the rain they do have better. This, and the extra crop yields produced by CO2 will be of more benefit to the people. However, while you still have wankers like Mugabe in power there isnt much point doing anytihng for the people since he will fuck them up in ways we can only guess at thus negating any benefit we can bring. However, if CO2 has any effect on climate we KNOW it will be of benefit to the temperate climes, incresing our growing season, reducing our need for energy, thus increasing our wealth, so we will be in a better position to pay for any dam construction in less temperate climes that might be afected. However, as can be witnessed by current climate, CO2 is NOT in chanrge. Something else is. This is also apparent from the post war period, where temps fell while CO2 rose. Clearly, CO2 is NOT driving temperature so there isnt any point limiting it untill we know what is.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
we would be better off spending the money on lessening those impacts than trying to reduce CO2.
Dealing with the symptoms rather than taking care of the root of the problems? What a short-sighted thing to do.
fat_boy wrote:
Clearly, CO2 is NOT driving temperature so there isnt any point limiting it untill we know what is.
IMO, the probability you are right is 5%, when the one you are wrong is 95%.
If you kill a whale, you get Greenpeace and Jacques Cousteau on your back, but wipe out sardines and you get a canning subsidy!
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fat_boy wrote:
we would be better off spending the money on lessening those impacts than trying to reduce CO2.
Dealing with the symptoms rather than taking care of the root of the problems? What a short-sighted thing to do.
fat_boy wrote:
Clearly, CO2 is NOT driving temperature so there isnt any point limiting it untill we know what is.
IMO, the probability you are right is 5%, when the one you are wrong is 95%.
If you kill a whale, you get Greenpeace and Jacques Cousteau on your back, but wipe out sardines and you get a canning subsidy!
Ka?l wrote:
Dealing with the symptoms rather than taking care of the root of the problems? What a short-sighted thing to do.
No, its actually long term, not short. If we implement Kyoto, at huge cost, we will only offset the supposed warming by a few years. That is a short term view.
Ka?l wrote:
IMO, the probability you are right is 5%, when the one you are wrong is 95%.
So tell me Karl, if CO2 is driving temperature why does CO2 lag temperature by centuries in the Vostok ice core data? Also, why did the temperature drop post war for 25 years when CO2 was rising? Also, why are todays temperatures much lower than predicted by the GCMs 15 years ago? If you can answer these with other than 'I dont know', which merely reinforces my statement that we should do more research before acting, then you will have cast doubt on the ability of CO2 to drive climate, and thus your position.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription