Where did all the money go?

[Pierre Leclercq]

Dalek Dave wrote:

Our rebate has gone!

Oh poor you! Well, this rebate has gone on since 1984, and it was paid by other member of the EU. Just see that France alone was paying 1.6 billions euros every year for this rebate.

Dalek Dave wrote:

We still pay over £50 Billion!

Well see this: http://www.touteleurope.fr/fr/organisation/budget/recettes/presentation/comparatif-contribution-par-etat-membre-au-budget-2008.html[^] France is contributing 16.95% of the European budget, compared to 11.41% for the UK. And still, I think this is good to keep on building Europe, and I am quite annoyed by those who do not want to pull their weight.

You can't turn lead into gold, unless you've built yourself a nuclear plant.

[Lost User]

Dalek Dave wrote:

China is in trouble

China is fucked. 20 million new unemployed due to the crunch. 20 million. That is stagering.

Dalek Dave wrote:

Spain is going third world

The construction boom on the past years has certainly died. I dont know for sure what the spanish lending laws are like though so I cant comment on the effect of tight credit on their economy.

Dalek Dave wrote:

France and Greece

France is a lot LESS dodgy looking than the UK. Believe me, I live there.

Dalek Dave wrote:

Trouble is who will pay for the debts of Other European Countries? Answer - UK and Germany

The UK couldnt pay for a cheap holiday in Brighton right now.

Dalek Dave wrote:

But the pound is deflating (good for our exports) and Germany is in political quicksand, with 70% wanting withdrawl from the Euro and over 50% wondering about withdrawl from EU. If UK and Germany pull, EU finished, rest of Europe goes 3rd world like Spain.

I have been mooting a German withdrawal form the Euro for some time. They have had a heavy bill. But the ONE strength of Europe, and the one thing that will save it is the Euro? Why? As the dollar slides off the plate, and sterling too, there is one safe, massive, backed up by centuries of stability based on trade, that other countries can buy for foreign reserves. And thats the Euro. In sumary, its time to get of your high horse. The UK is fucked. It is nothing. It is finished. Time to accept that fact.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

[Dalek Dave]

Pierre Leclercq wrote:

Where do you get this information from?

Read Stern[^]

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

[Lost User]

Like I said, "bad news for business considering the levels of trade that exists between UK and the continent", and my remark regarding the French was more tongue-in-cheek. But you and I agree that any American protectionism will be bad news for all and Europe will need to have a robust response. Presently, EU without UK participation is unthinkable no matter what CP Member Matthew Faithfull and his UKIP say.

[KaRl]

Dalek Dave wrote:

Really?

Absolutely. Since 1973 UK brought nothing positive to the Union. It is an obstacle rather than a driving force.

Dalek Dave wrote:

who will pay for it?

The net contribution of UK is €2.75bn. I don't think EU would collapse without this money.

The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread Fold with us! ¤ flickr

[Oakman]

fat_boy wrote:

In sumary, its time to get of your high horse. The UK is f***ed. It is nothing. It is finished. Time to accept that fact.

Interesting. If I am reading this right, every SB-er who lives in France - even an ex-pat like you - seems to need to believe that the UK is going down for the last time, but that new French Empire (aka EU) is somehow going to be untouched by the global crisis. Yet Reuters has just reported a record low euro zone business and consumer confidence and says that the euro zone economy is sinking deeper into its first recession. Why the disconnect?

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

[Lost User]

Oakman wrote:

Why the disconnect?

I know businesses in the UK do better in general, they have easier employment laws, one of the big burdens the Eurozone has. But, the ease of lending pushed house prices up in the UK beyond all reasonable values. Now the bubble has burst a large part of the UK populaiton is facing negative equity of around £50,000 plus. Add this to an average credit card debt of around £15,000 PER PERSON, and IF the banks dont start lending, but instead start forclosing, then the debt level per capita will be so high it wil take the UK ten years before the populace are capable of spending money on anything except food and clothes. Then unemployment. It is rising massively. And the impact on the internal business structure (ie that services home customers) is going to be catastrophic further adding to the unenployment levels and speeding the downturn. House prioces in the UK are, at a reasonable estimate, were least 40$ overvalued. They have corrected by 20% already. And theres lots of downside still to go. The UK is hanging by a thread over a pit of ecconomic and hence social collapse the like of which will shock the world when the thread snaps. Which is what it will do by october. Unless the banks are forced to lend.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

[Dalek Dave]

Oakman wrote:

Why the disconnect?

One word - FEAR!

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

[Lost User]

Jesus, you're such a scaremonger. Your posts read like fucking Daily Mail headlines and, to be honest, you're starting to sound like a broken record. So we're in a recession, but it won't last forever. Sure it's going to hurt, recessions always do, but we'll get through it. If everyone thought like you we'd never get out of bed in the fucking morning. Being born in the UK, France, or anywhere else in the West is a massive stroke of good fortune compared to what the rest of the developing world has to endure, so I think we can handle the economy contracting by a few percent. People will still eat. They will still get healthcare. There won't be food riots and there won't be 'social collapse'. The housing market was always going to crash; it has before and it will again, and governments the world over aren't going to let the banking system fall off a cliff and totally collapse. We'll still be here arguing the toss this time next year, mark my words.

[Chris Austin]

Exactly. I am amazed reading some of these arguments.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long

[Lost User]

Britain will hurt. But Britain will eventually recover. But your remark "economic and hence social collapse" is not helpful but can understand why you suggest that, but I don't see Britain, no more than America sinking into oblivion.

[Oakman]

Dalek Dave wrote:

One word - FEAR!

It seems from this side of the puddle that every French SB-er is in denial about the effects of the crisis on the EU/France and gloating over the problems that the UK has - while providing what seem to be faith-based assurances that the UK's only hope of salvation is to remain in the EU.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

[Dalek Dave]

Britain has always looked west. We may have our obligations to Europe, especially our obligations to save France from German domination. But we are culturally and politically closer to the US and Canada. An old alliance, tempered over the years by differences, but still a strong bond as H Clinton said yesterday.

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

[Oakman]

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

But you and I agree that any American protectionism will be bad news for all and Europe will need to have a robust response.

Perhaps the EU could start by lowering its own trade barriers? Or do you believe they don't exist?

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

Presently, EU without UK participation is unthinkable

To whom? The UK or to the EU?

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

[Lost User]

Jon, there is no getting away from the fact that if UK withdraws its membership of the EU that it will adversely affect the quantity and quality of trade. As UK no longer trades to the extent it once did with Commonwealth nations, there would be no short-term comfort to be had by trying to re-establish those trade-links. If USA chooses to go protectionist (as reported might happen - personally I doubt that outcome though), then the world, not just Britain, would be in for a very long winded bumpy ride. Boosting trade with China would be nice but again not a short-term solution. That leaves EU, and the relationship between UK & EU thus cannot fail. Salvation ? no, necessary.

[Lost User]

Oakman wrote:

Perhaps the EU could start by lowering its own trade barriers? Or do you believe they don't exist?

Yes they exist for some commodities, and they should be removed on a like for like basis with barriers that exist in America and other countries.

Oakman wrote:

To whom? The UK or to the EU?

Both.

[KaRl]

Rob Caldecott wrote:

People will still eat. They will still get healthcare.

Really? Some people already don't. Not everybody has something to eat everyday, and a growing number have no access to health care. I don't think the crisis will help to solve this situation, on the contrary.

Rob Caldecott wrote:

there won't be 'social collapse'.

I disagree. I think there could be huge social disorders, which are already starting this side of the Channel.

The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread Fold with us! ¤ flickr

[Dalek Dave]

yeah, started in 1914

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

[Oakman]

Dalek Dave wrote:

An old alliance, tempered over the years by differences, but still a strong bond as H Clinton said yesterday.

No question. (Although we still owe you one for burning the White House :mad: )

Dalek Dave wrote:

We may have our obligations to Europe, especially our obligations to save France from German domination.

Maybe that should be rethought. ;)

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

[Dalek Dave]

If UK were outside the EU, would we still trade with it? Yep, example... We are one of the biggest markets for French Wines and French Cars. German Cars and German Pizzas (Seriously). Italian Leather and Italian Cheese. Etc They would want to sell to us, so they could not close our market down. We would be like Norway and Switzerland, a trading partner, not but part of the EU. Look at those poor third world European Countries like Norway and Switzerland, think how much richer they would be. All they have to do is give up their own laws and currencies and surrender themselves to the unelected commissioners that rule by dictat without democratic elections and they too could enjoy the lack of freedoms and rights that we do. They could give up their successful economies too, so that they could pay for Poland and Romania. Or perhaps the thought of UK surviving outside the EU, not being saddled with the CAP and producing as much milk and meat and grain as it could and therefore selling it far cheaper than anyone else in Europe upsets you. Maybe it is our trade links and free entry to the US market that hurts deep down? OK, UK is in trouble, but it is far from fucked.

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson