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  4. George Will - on calamaties

George Will - on calamaties

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  • L Lost User

    Whether the cooling period its 11 or 7 years depends on whether you accept the exceptional el-nino 1998 as the peak. If not, the GW peaked at around 2002. Either way, its a significant trend. Re the calamities thinhg though, I think its true. We always liie something to worry about. And so post cold war we had to comeup with somehting to replace the bomb and AGW was the result.

    Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

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    M Offline
    Mike Gaskey
    wrote on last edited by
    #17

    fat_boy wrote:

    so post cold war we had to comeup with somehting to replace the bomb and AGW was the result.

    must have boogey man, repeat, must have boogey man. so, yup, I agree with you.

    Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.

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    • J John Carson

      Rob Graham wrote:

      Quoting from the document you linked to: "Since the beginning of the twentieth century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74°C, but this increase has not been continuous. The linear warming trend over the past 50 years (0.13°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the past 100 years." That seems to contradict Will's assertion as to what the WMO is saying.

      Not necessarily. It could be true both that a linear fit to the data over the past 50 years shows a warming trend and that a linear fit to the last 10 years doesn't show a warming trend --- provided there was sufficient warming in the first 40 years. Like I suggested, if you get the hottest year on record in 1998 and then the temperature bounces around in the vicinity of that hottest year for the next decade, then a linear fit for those 10 years could show no upward trend. Nevertheless, the fact that temperature stays at near record levels is highly suggestive. If Will's claim is correct --- on which I reserve judgement --- then I strongly suspect that continued warming will show up in the data in the next 2-3 years as short-term weather effects wash out.

      John Carson

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      R Offline
      Rob Graham
      wrote on last edited by
      #18

      Although I am inclined to agree that 10 years is to short a period for a reasonable assessment, it is surprising considering that CO2 increase rates have been greater than the IPCC worst case scenarios in recent years. One wonders what factors were wrong or missing in the computer models...

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      • R Rob Graham

        Although I am inclined to agree that 10 years is to short a period for a reasonable assessment, it is surprising considering that CO2 increase rates have been greater than the IPCC worst case scenarios in recent years. One wonders what factors were wrong or missing in the computer models...

        L Offline
        L Offline
        Lost User
        wrote on last edited by
        #19

        Rob Graham wrote:

        One wonders what factors were wrong or missing in the computer models

        CO2 forcing is doubled, the earth is flat, it is constant day light, clouds dont exist... As you state, CO2 has kept climbing, even more than thought, and for 7, possibly 10 years temps have fallen (in the last 7 by 3 degrees C a century). So is CO2 in the driving seat? Nope. Its somewhere in the back with the also-rans. Even the IPCC downgraded CO2s forcing from 2.4 to 1.7 w/m^2 s between the third and fourth reports. The IPC also state that 4/5ths of climate science has a "very low level of scientific understanding". Its not surprising the computer models are so wrong.

        Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

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        • B BoneSoft

          Tim Craig wrote:

          Oh wait, they were carrying US flags, you don't salute that anymore

          Does that mean he's supporting Obama[^] now?


          Visit BoneSoft.com for code generation tools (XML & XSD -> C#, VB, etc...) and some free developer tools as well.

          O Offline
          O Offline
          Oakman
          wrote on last edited by
          #20

          BoneSoft wrote:

          Does that mean he's supporting Obama

          Nope, just that he's a self-confessed traitor. Probably an agent of a foreign government - probably Argentina.

          Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

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          • M Mike Gaskey

            fat_boy wrote:

            so post cold war we had to comeup with somehting to replace the bomb and AGW was the result.

            must have boogey man, repeat, must have boogey man. so, yup, I agree with you.

            Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.

            O Offline
            O Offline
            Oakman
            wrote on last edited by
            #21

            Mike Gaskey wrote:

            must have boogey man, repeat, must have boogey man. so, yup, I agree with you

            I feel a certain nostalgia for the USSR days.

            Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

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            • L Lost User

              Rob Graham wrote:

              One wonders what factors were wrong or missing in the computer models

              CO2 forcing is doubled, the earth is flat, it is constant day light, clouds dont exist... As you state, CO2 has kept climbing, even more than thought, and for 7, possibly 10 years temps have fallen (in the last 7 by 3 degrees C a century). So is CO2 in the driving seat? Nope. Its somewhere in the back with the also-rans. Even the IPCC downgraded CO2s forcing from 2.4 to 1.7 w/m^2 s between the third and fourth reports. The IPC also state that 4/5ths of climate science has a "very low level of scientific understanding". Its not surprising the computer models are so wrong.

              Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

              R Offline
              R Offline
              Rob Graham
              wrote on last edited by
              #22

              But, but... Al said...

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              • O Oakman

                Mike Gaskey wrote:

                must have boogey man, repeat, must have boogey man. so, yup, I agree with you

                I feel a certain nostalgia for the USSR days.

                Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

                G Offline
                G Offline
                Gary Kirkham
                wrote on last edited by
                #23

                I guess there is something to be said for knowing who and where your enemy is.

                Gary Kirkham Forever Forgiven and Alive in the Spirit "Truly, truly, I say to you, he who hears My word, and believes Him who sent Me, has eternal life, and does not come into judgment, but has passed out of death into life. Me blog, You read

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                • O Oakman

                  Mike Gaskey wrote:

                  must have boogey man, repeat, must have boogey man. so, yup, I agree with you

                  I feel a certain nostalgia for the USSR days.

                  Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

                  B Offline
                  B Offline
                  BoneSoft
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #24

                  Me too. Back then, people knew who the enemy was. Now they have no clue that that very enemy never went away, they just set up shop in our own back yard. Yep, it was a good time in history, when most of the pinko commies were overseas. :sigh:


                  Visit BoneSoft.com for code generation tools (XML & XSD -> C#, VB, etc...) and some free developer tools as well.

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                  • O Oakman

                    BoneSoft wrote:

                    Does that mean he's supporting Obama

                    Nope, just that he's a self-confessed traitor. Probably an agent of a foreign government - probably Argentina.

                    Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

                    M Offline
                    M Offline
                    Mike Gaskey
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #25

                    Oakman wrote:

                    Probably

                    you're starting to collect as many 1's as me or Stan. better shape up dude.:beer: :badger:

                    Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.

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                    • M Mike Gaskey

                      Oakman wrote:

                      Probably

                      you're starting to collect as many 1's as me or Stan. better shape up dude.:beer: :badger:

                      Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.

                      O Offline
                      O Offline
                      Oakman
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #26

                      Mike Gaskey wrote:

                      you're starting to collect as many 1's as me or Stan. better shape up dude

                      That's: A. 'cause I keep balancing yours (and his, more often than he can imagine). B. 'cause I get them from Stan who thinks he's paying me back, AND I get them from Oily cause he thinks he's paying me back. I think the whole run-around-and-give-other-people-ones not because they made a dumb argument or shot their mouth off without thinking but because you disagree with their position, is both childish and ill-mannered. They must all be managers.

                      Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

                      S 1 Reply Last reply
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                      • R Rob Graham

                        But, but... Al said...

                        O Offline
                        O Offline
                        Oakman
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #27

                        Rob Graham wrote:

                        But, but... Al said...

                        ROFL I can't imagine who one-voted you :rolleyes:

                        Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

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                        • O Oakman

                          Rob Graham wrote:

                          But, but... Al said...

                          ROFL I can't imagine who one-voted you :rolleyes:

                          Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

                          R Offline
                          R Offline
                          Rob Graham
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #28

                          Oakman wrote:

                          I can't imagine who one-voted you

                          No one I would enjoy actually knowing, I'm sure. Damn, 1-voted this one too. Must be someone who takes my posts personally. They should get a life.

                          modified on Monday, February 16, 2009 4:42 PM

                          J 1 Reply Last reply
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                          • O Oakman

                            Mike Gaskey wrote:

                            you're starting to collect as many 1's as me or Stan. better shape up dude

                            That's: A. 'cause I keep balancing yours (and his, more often than he can imagine). B. 'cause I get them from Stan who thinks he's paying me back, AND I get them from Oily cause he thinks he's paying me back. I think the whole run-around-and-give-other-people-ones not because they made a dumb argument or shot their mouth off without thinking but because you disagree with their position, is both childish and ill-mannered. They must all be managers.

                            Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

                            S Offline
                            S Offline
                            Stan Shannon
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #29

                            Oakman wrote:

                            B. 'cause I get them from Stan who thinks he's paying me back, AND I get them from Oily cause he thinks he's paying me back.

                            I don't believe I've ever given you a one . In fact, I gave you a five not too long ago for something I agreed with (can't remember what it was now) I hardly ever vote on anyone - except oily.

                            Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.

                            S 1 Reply Last reply
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                            • R Rob Graham

                              Although I am inclined to agree that 10 years is to short a period for a reasonable assessment, it is surprising considering that CO2 increase rates have been greater than the IPCC worst case scenarios in recent years. One wonders what factors were wrong or missing in the computer models...

                              J Offline
                              J Offline
                              John Carson
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #30

                              Rob Graham wrote:

                              Although I am inclined to agree that 10 years is to short a period for a reasonable assessment, it is surprising considering that CO2 increase rates have been greater than the IPCC worst case scenarios in recent years. One wonders what factors were wrong or missing in the computer models...

                              My understanding is that computer simulations do not typically predict a steady increase in temperature. Due to the non-linearities and complex interactions, they normally show fluctuations. It is also my understanding that there are quite a number of different models and that, while there is a broad agreement on a trend to warming, there are significant differences between them in the detail of their predictions. I think people freely admit that a lot of stuff is left out of the models or imperfectly modelled. Nevertheless, they would argue that their models can broadly capture the trends over the last 150 years and that no model that omits a significant role for human-generated greenhouse gases can do so.

                              John Carson

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                              • R Rob Graham

                                Oakman wrote:

                                I can't imagine who one-voted you

                                No one I would enjoy actually knowing, I'm sure. Damn, 1-voted this one too. Must be someone who takes my posts personally. They should get a life.

                                modified on Monday, February 16, 2009 4:42 PM

                                J Offline
                                J Offline
                                John Carson
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #31

                                Rob Graham wrote:

                                No one I would enjoy actually knowing, I'm sure. Damn, 1-voted this one too. Must be someone who takes my posts personally. They should get a life.

                                I've noticed that lately my posts attract a 1 vote regardless of what I say. It has only been happening the last month or two.

                                John Carson

                                1 Reply Last reply
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                                • S Stan Shannon

                                  Oakman wrote:

                                  B. 'cause I get them from Stan who thinks he's paying me back, AND I get them from Oily cause he thinks he's paying me back.

                                  I don't believe I've ever given you a one . In fact, I gave you a five not too long ago for something I agreed with (can't remember what it was now) I hardly ever vote on anyone - except oily.

                                  Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.

                                  S Offline
                                  S Offline
                                  Synaptrik
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #32

                                  Stan Shannon wrote:

                                  In fact, I gave you a five not too long ago for something I agreed with

                                  Well, that's acceptable. Agreeable votes are at least not...

                                  Jon wrote:

                                  but because you disagree with their position, is both childish and ill-mannered.

                                  ...disagreeable votes. :laugh: I wonder how often he digests his own self-righteousness. I mean one-votes shouldn't be because someone disagrees with the post, and surely, they can only be stalking-haters. :laugh:

                                  This statement is false

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