Bears at large [modified]

kmg365 · modified on Monday, March 2, 2009 1:36 PM

...one eye on wsj page, watching the ticker on the right side of the page... it's like a horror story unfolding... Kind-a like a giant meteor hit the central Atlantic, but I have a couple days and really don't have to worry about at this particular moment. :~

Oakman

kmg365 wrote:

Kind-a like a giant meteor hit the central Atlantic

It's got waves hitting in the Pacific, too. Imagine what it must be like to be in charge of China's "managed" economy right now. I say she falls, with maybe a couple of rest-stops on the way, until she hits 6400.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

kmg365

Oakman wrote:

until she hits 6400.

good a guess as any, be interesting to see where we are in 3 months.

Oakman

kmg365 wrote:

good a guess as any, be interesting to see where we are in 3 months.

You think it will take that long? I think we are looking at April Fools Day.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Chris Austin · modified on Monday, March 2, 2009 1:36 PM

thrakazog wrote:

The market has fallen farther and faster then the .com crash and the 73 oldoil crisis. Looks like it's time to start loading up on canned foods and shotguns.

And shorts. A way to hedge against some losses is to purchase short options on the stocks you currently own during a bear market.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?

Chris Austin

Oakman wrote:

I say she falls, with maybe a couple of rest-stops on the way, until she hits 6400.

Are you digging in with some put options on that? I have no clue on the broad market but with such a clear trend these days it's impossible for me to stop myself from gobbling up some of the shorts that are out there. Heck, a lot of them are "in the money" almost immediately.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?

Oakman

Chris Austin wrote:

Are you digging in with some put options on that?

Not yet. I am positive she'll hit 6,400, but I am not yet ready to say it's the real floor. Right now, I'm buying American Eagles for my grandkids. However, I am willing to hold a contest and the person who comes closest to picking the number that turns out to be a floor (for at least 6 weeks) will receive my copy of "Cover Letters That Knock 'em Dead."

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Lost User

If the graph from thrakazog's first link is accurate, 6400 may not be rock bottom especially if deflation becomes a problem. And a recovery from 2010 could be very optimistic.

Chris Austin

While telling, these type of line graphs are not very good for showing what is technically happening in the market. Heck, just looking at the chart posted it looks like 3 of the 4 bear markets magically trended upward or flattened out. A candlestick chart[^] is far more telling of technical indicators, price action and, momentum. There are tons of other trailing indicators that can be used to make price predictions but most require some form of market verification.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?

Chris Austin

Oakman wrote:

Right now, I'm buying American Eagles for my grandkids.

Are those older coins? I remember someone telling me that only pre-1940's coins are considered un-seizable by the government at large. Not that I verified this rumor, I just remember hearing it.

Oakman wrote:

I am willing to hold a contest and the person who comes closest to picking the number that turns out to be a floor (for at least 6 weeks) will receive my copy of "Cover Letters That Knock 'em Dead."

:laugh: I'll throw in a copy of Cryptonomicon.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?

Lost User

I knew of the Candlestick chart at its most basic but didn't realize the variety of them as shown here http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_cand[^]

Oakman

Chris Austin wrote:

I remember someone telling me that only pre-1940's coins are considered un-seizable by the government at large.

These are minted up by the US treasury in the here and now. You can buy a fresh new twenty-dollar gold piece for about $1,000. These folks[^] forget to ask for your social security number when you order.

Chris Austin wrote:

I'll throw in a copy of Cryptonomicon.

For a second I thought you were saying you had a copy of Cthulhu's Necronomicon :omg:

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Chris Austin

They are very helpful in trying to figure what actions are driving the market. Not being the sharpest knife in the drawer it took me several months of looking at them on a daily basis to really begin to "get it".

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?