Looting [modified]
-
Someone should forward this[^] to the Messiah. During the 1980s, a number of unusual financial crises occurred. In Chile, for example, the financial sector collapsed, leaving the government with responsibility for extensive foreign debts. In the United States, large numbers of government-insured savings and loans became insolvent - and the government picked up the tab. In Dallas, Texas, real estate prices and construction continued to boom even after vacancies had skyrocketed, and the suffered a dramatic collapse. Also in the United States, the junk bond market, which fueled the takeover wave, had a similar boom and bust. In this paper, we use simple theory and direct evidence to highlight a common thread that runs through these four episodes. The theory suggests that this common thread may be relevant to other cases in which countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust. We describe the evidence, however, only for the cases of financial crisis in Chile, the thrift crisis in the United States, Dallas real estate and thrifts, and junk bonds. Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations. Date of the paper? 1993. Interested parties may contact me using the email link for a copy of the paper. It's 74 pages and mathematical to some extent, but still readable. It will also allow you to see how an economic model is constructed which is relevant to the post below.
modified on Thursday, March 12, 2009 4:58 AM
You know me well enough to understand this is not an attack on you :) but I find it slightly amusing that so many people are digging up papers and articles from the 90s that predicted doom, today. I didn't see a rash of such articles being brought to the limelight in, say, 2006. And yes, I'd like a copy too :) I don't pretend I'll understand it, but there's always hope. And I don't have great plans for the weekend either.
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
-
Oakman wrote:
Having only read the precis, it appears that what they wrote as something of a warning, was taken as a how-to manual.
Well, it pretty much outlines the conditions under which a firm will take incredible risks because they believe they will be bailed out by the government. They also look at several case examples. It's still relevant as a paper because the current crisis followed exactly what they were talking about like a recipe - like you said. It just goes to show how badly the regulatory framework was out of date. This paper is 16 years old.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Well, it pretty much outlines the conditions under which a firm will take incredible risks because they believe they will be bailed out by the government.
Remember this[^] conversation from a year ago? :) Reading my reply to you in that thread, I didn't think the bailouts would take this dimension either! :omg:
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
Well, it pretty much outlines the conditions under which a firm will take incredible risks because they believe they will be bailed out by the government.
Remember this[^] conversation from a year ago? :) Reading my reply to you in that thread, I didn't think the bailouts would take this dimension either! :omg:
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
Well, it pretty much outlines the conditions under which a firm will take incredible risks because they believe they will be bailed out by the government.
Remember this[^] conversation from a year ago? :) Reading my reply to you in that thread, I didn't think the bailouts would take this dimension either! :omg:
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
Well, it pretty much outlines the conditions under which a firm will take incredible risks because they believe they will be bailed out by the government.
Remember this[^] conversation from a year ago? :) Reading my reply to you in that thread, I didn't think the bailouts would take this dimension either! :omg:
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
Heh. Yeah. "Woops" on my part. :doh:
-
Email me here, Richard:
-
You know me well enough to understand this is not an attack on you :) but I find it slightly amusing that so many people are digging up papers and articles from the 90s that predicted doom, today. I didn't see a rash of such articles being brought to the limelight in, say, 2006. And yes, I'd like a copy too :) I don't pretend I'll understand it, but there's always hope. And I don't have great plans for the weekend either.
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
Ok, will forward to you.
-
Vikram A Punathambekar wrote:
Remember this[^] conversation from a year ago?
It is a cruel thing to do, to remind any of us what we believed about the economy a year ago. ;)
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
;P What, I was proved right against Zep and can't gloat about it? ;) I wonder if I'll be invited to be part of the Illuminati? :-D
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
-
Email me here, Richard:
As the CP e-mail link don't work. What's your thoughts of creating a googlemail account as a "dead letter box" : The concept being that we can attach documents etc of all sorts either as drafts or by sending the thing to itself via that googlemail account without being inconvenienced by CPs limitations. This way, our own private e-mail details would never need to be published.
-
As the CP e-mail link don't work. What's your thoughts of creating a googlemail account as a "dead letter box" : The concept being that we can attach documents etc of all sorts either as drafts or by sending the thing to itself via that googlemail account without being inconvenienced by CPs limitations. This way, our own private e-mail details would never need to be published.
Probably a decent idea. You can send me email at: Let me know when you get this message so I can remove from the spambot attacks... :)
modified on Thursday, March 12, 2009 3:16 PM
-
Probably a decent idea. You can send me email at: Let me know when you get this message so I can remove from the spambot attacks... :)
modified on Thursday, March 12, 2009 3:16 PM
-
;P What, I was proved right against Zep and can't gloat about it? ;) I wonder if I'll be invited to be part of the Illuminati? :-D
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
-
Probably a decent idea. You can send me email at: Let me know when you get this message so I can remove from the spambot attacks... :)
modified on Thursday, March 12, 2009 3:16 PM
-
Vikram A Punathambekar wrote:
I wonder if I'll be invited to be part of the Illuminati?
You'll be at their next banquet. They are planning to demonstrate all the ways they can serve humanity.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
I never realized that the illuminati were anthropophagites.
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
You can send me email at:
Did you get my email?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
YEs, got it! Will be answering soon!
-
;P What, I was proved right against Zep and can't gloat about it? ;) I wonder if I'll be invited to be part of the Illuminati? :-D
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
Vikram A Punathambekar wrote:
What, I was proved right against Zep and can't gloat about it? I wonder if I'll be invited to be part of the Illuminati?
I am no longer a card-carrying member of the Illuminati. :sigh: You can have my place at the octagonal table! ;P
-
Someone should forward this[^] to the Messiah. During the 1980s, a number of unusual financial crises occurred. In Chile, for example, the financial sector collapsed, leaving the government with responsibility for extensive foreign debts. In the United States, large numbers of government-insured savings and loans became insolvent - and the government picked up the tab. In Dallas, Texas, real estate prices and construction continued to boom even after vacancies had skyrocketed, and the suffered a dramatic collapse. Also in the United States, the junk bond market, which fueled the takeover wave, had a similar boom and bust. In this paper, we use simple theory and direct evidence to highlight a common thread that runs through these four episodes. The theory suggests that this common thread may be relevant to other cases in which countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust. We describe the evidence, however, only for the cases of financial crisis in Chile, the thrift crisis in the United States, Dallas real estate and thrifts, and junk bonds. Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations. Date of the paper? 1993. Interested parties may contact me using the email link for a copy of the paper. It's 74 pages and mathematical to some extent, but still readable. It will also allow you to see how an economic model is constructed which is relevant to the post below.
modified on Thursday, March 12, 2009 4:58 AM
[JOKE] Wow that was like reading Machiavelli's "The Prince" except for girlie men with MBAs. [/JOKE] Very interesting stuff that fits pretty well into my opinion of our situation. i.e. lots of people saw the writing on the wall but no one wanted to waste time and energy on people who would refuse to listen. Heck, I even remember a finical author on cnn talking about the currency value vs the gains we had on wall street and how it was all just a house of cards. Even though he had lots of data and 'pretty' charts for people with short attention spans they just 'yah yah whatevered' him off the show.
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?
-
Vikram A Punathambekar wrote:
What, I was proved right against Zep and can't gloat about it? I wonder if I'll be invited to be part of the Illuminati?
I am no longer a card-carrying member of the Illuminati. :sigh: You can have my place at the octagonal table! ;P
73Zeppelin wrote:
I am no longer a card-carrying member of the Illuminati.
Does this mean they have a job opening? I have a friend finishing up his post doc work on economics/finance at yale. I am sure he'd make a great addition to the team.
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
Well, it pretty much outlines the conditions under which a firm will take incredible risks because they believe they will be bailed out by the government.
Remember this[^] conversation from a year ago? :) Reading my reply to you in that thread, I didn't think the bailouts would take this dimension either! :omg:
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
Has it been a year already? I still remember when this nonsense really picked up steam like it was yesterday.
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?
-
I never realized that the illuminati were anthropophagites.