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  4. Auto Accidents, AIDS, Contraception and the Pope

Auto Accidents, AIDS, Contraception and the Pope

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  • I Ilion

    And you know this, how?

    C Offline
    C Offline
    Christian Graus
    wrote on last edited by
    #27

    What are you, 8 years old ? You're the one who said you had no standards.

    Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista. "I am new to programming world. I have been learning c# for about past four weeks. I am quite acquainted with the fundamentals of c#. Now I have to work on a project which converts given flat files to XML using the XML serialization method" - SK64 ( but the forums have stuff like this posted every day )

    I 1 Reply Last reply
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    • I Ilion

      Auto Accidents, AIDS, Contraception and the Pope[^]

      Suppose you make cars safer by requiring seat belts, collapsible stearing columns, and other changes that make it less likely that an auto accident will kill the car's occupants. The obvious conclusion, and the one many people reach, is that the highway death rate will go down. Sam Peltzman, in a classic article[^], pointed out that there was no good theoretical reason to expect that to happen. Auto accidents do not simply happen; they are the result of decisions made by drivers, such as how fast to drive, how much attention to pay to driving and how much to conversations with your passengers or listening to the radio, whether to drive home or take a cab after drinking a little too much. Making cars safer lowers the cost of dangerous driving; on the margin, drivers are more willing to risk accidents the less likely accidents are to kill them. So making cars safer results in fewer deaths per accident but more accidents. There is no theoretical basis to predict whether the net effect will be fewer deaths or more. ... I was reminded of this by a more recent controversy involving a different issue but the same logic. The Pope has, not surprisingly, come out against the distribution of condoms as a way of dealing with the AIDS epidemice in Africa—and, not surprisingly, been ferociously attacked for doing so. Just as with auto safety and auto accidents, making sex safer has two effects working in opposite directions. It makes the chance that a given act of sex will result in AIDS transmission lower. But, by lowering that risk, it reduces the incentive to avoid sex entirely, to avoid sexual acts such as anal intercourse that are particularly likely to transmit AIDS, to avoid sex with people likely to give you AIDS, such as prostitutes. On theoretical grounds we have no way of knowing whether the net effect will be more AIDS or less. It turns out that there is evidence that, just as in the auto case, the two effects roughly cancel. That, at least, was the widely reported con

      O Offline
      O Offline
      Oakman
      wrote on last edited by
      #28

      Ilíon wrote:

      “We have found no consistent associations between condom use and lower HIV-infection rates, which, 25 years into the pandemic, we should be seeing if this intervention was working.”

      Presumably then condums don't prevent any STD, inspite of the hundreds of studies showing otherwise. I suppose this could be because the AIDs virus is much cleverer than the syphillis virus and knows how to climb up to the top of the condum and slip out that way. . .or maybe the AIDs virus is so virulent that it melts microscopic holes in the condum. . .or maybe. . . :confused:

      Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

      I 1 Reply Last reply
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      • 7 73Zeppelin

        Ilíon wrote:

        So, you're going to punt?

        Depends on the context.

        O Offline
        O Offline
        Oakman
        wrote on last edited by
        #29

        73Zeppelin wrote:

        Depends on the context.

        Illion's deep in his own territory with his defensive backfield crouched behind his own goal-line. It's 4th an 1/2 inch - go for it.

        Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

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        • C Chris Meech

          Abstain from the use of a car. :)

          Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra]

          O Offline
          O Offline
          Oakman
          wrote on last edited by
          #30

          Chris Meech wrote:

          Abstain from the use of a car.

          And don't cross the road on foot, either.

          Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

          1 Reply Last reply
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          • 7 73Zeppelin

            So, the possibility to absolve sins would give people incentive to sin more, right?

            T Offline
            T Offline
            Tim Craig
            wrote on last edited by
            #31

            73Zeppelin wrote:

            So, the possibility to absolve sins would give people incentive to sin more, right?

            I had a catholic friend actually tell me that. Party Saturday, confess on Sunday, good to go again.

            "Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." -- P.J. O'Rourke

            I'm a proud denizen of the Real Soapbox[^]
            ACCEPT NO SUBSTITUTES!!!

            O 1 Reply Last reply
            0
            • T Tim Craig

              73Zeppelin wrote:

              So, the possibility to absolve sins would give people incentive to sin more, right?

              I had a catholic friend actually tell me that. Party Saturday, confess on Sunday, good to go again.

              "Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." -- P.J. O'Rourke

              I'm a proud denizen of the Real Soapbox[^]
              ACCEPT NO SUBSTITUTES!!!

              O Offline
              O Offline
              Oakman
              wrote on last edited by
              #32

              Tim Craig wrote:

              I had a catholic friend actually tell me that. Party Saturday, confess on Sunday, good to go again.

              Pity the Jews - they have a day of atonement, but it only comes around once a year.

              Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

              1 Reply Last reply
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              • I Ilion

                Auto Accidents, AIDS, Contraception and the Pope[^]

                Suppose you make cars safer by requiring seat belts, collapsible stearing columns, and other changes that make it less likely that an auto accident will kill the car's occupants. The obvious conclusion, and the one many people reach, is that the highway death rate will go down. Sam Peltzman, in a classic article[^], pointed out that there was no good theoretical reason to expect that to happen. Auto accidents do not simply happen; they are the result of decisions made by drivers, such as how fast to drive, how much attention to pay to driving and how much to conversations with your passengers or listening to the radio, whether to drive home or take a cab after drinking a little too much. Making cars safer lowers the cost of dangerous driving; on the margin, drivers are more willing to risk accidents the less likely accidents are to kill them. So making cars safer results in fewer deaths per accident but more accidents. There is no theoretical basis to predict whether the net effect will be fewer deaths or more. ... I was reminded of this by a more recent controversy involving a different issue but the same logic. The Pope has, not surprisingly, come out against the distribution of condoms as a way of dealing with the AIDS epidemice in Africa—and, not surprisingly, been ferociously attacked for doing so. Just as with auto safety and auto accidents, making sex safer has two effects working in opposite directions. It makes the chance that a given act of sex will result in AIDS transmission lower. But, by lowering that risk, it reduces the incentive to avoid sex entirely, to avoid sexual acts such as anal intercourse that are particularly likely to transmit AIDS, to avoid sex with people likely to give you AIDS, such as prostitutes. On theoretical grounds we have no way of knowing whether the net effect will be more AIDS or less. It turns out that there is evidence that, just as in the auto case, the two effects roughly cancel. That, at least, was the widely reported con

                J Offline
                J Offline
                John Carson
                wrote on last edited by
                #33

                In principle, either effect can dominate. In practice, auto safety reduces deaths and condoms reduce the spread of AIDS. Deaths from auto accidents relative to population and miles driven have fallen spectacularly in both Australia and the US due to road safety measures. See here for Australia.

                In 1970 there were 3,798 road fatalities, representing 30.4 fatalities per 100,000 persons or 8 per 10,000 registered vehicles. Since then the number of fatalities per year has declined significantly, especially over the 1980s and 1990s (graph 23.21). In 1999 the number of road fatalities had decreased to less than half the 1970 rate (1,761), representing 9.5 per 100,000 persons (graph 23.22) or 1.4 per 10,000 registered vehicles (graph 23.23). This decline cannot be attributed to a reduction in the distance travelled by vehicles, which has remained fairly steady since 1971, when each vehicle travelled an average of 15,900 km. In 1999, each vehicle travelled an average of 15,800 km.

                i.e., fatalities per 100,000 people dropped to less than a third of their previous level, while fatalities per vehicle (covering a roughly constant distance) fell to less than a fifth of their previous level. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/9AFD4E13D7DA281FCA2569DE0028B40C?Open&Highlight=0,crash#Top[^] For the AIDS-condom link, I suggest: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-evidence-on-preventing-aids-is-clear-20090413-a4rs.html?page=-1[^] http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2009/04/10/1239223045156.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1[^]

                John Carson

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                • C Christian Graus

                  you have no standards AND you're illiterate. Got it.

                  Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista. "I am new to programming world. I have been learning c# for about past four weeks. I am quite acquainted with the fundamentals of c#. Now I have to work on a project which converts given flat files to XML using the XML serialization method" - SK64 ( but the forums have stuff like this posted every day )

                  L Offline
                  L Offline
                  Lost User
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #34

                  Christian Graus wrote:

                  you have no standards AND you're illiterate.

                  AND he sucks cock.

                  Michael Martin Australia "I controlled my laughter and simple said "No,I am very busy,so I can't write any code for you". The moment they heard this all the smiling face turned into a sad looking face and one of them farted. So I had to leave the place as soon as possible." - Mr.Prakash One Fine Saturday. 24/04/2004

                  1 Reply Last reply
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                  • C Christian Graus

                    What are you, 8 years old ? You're the one who said you had no standards.

                    Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista. "I am new to programming world. I have been learning c# for about past four weeks. I am quite acquainted with the fundamentals of c#. Now I have to work on a project which converts given flat files to XML using the XML serialization method" - SK64 ( but the forums have stuff like this posted every day )

                    I Offline
                    I Offline
                    Ilion
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #35

                    Christian Graus wrote:

                    What are you, 8 years old ? You're the one who said you had no standards.

                    You're such a liar. And so irrational -- you seem to imagine that I have some sort of duty to take you seriously.

                    O 1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • C Christian Graus

                      you have no standards AND you're illiterate. Got it.

                      Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista. "I am new to programming world. I have been learning c# for about past four weeks. I am quite acquainted with the fundamentals of c#. Now I have to work on a project which converts given flat files to XML using the XML serialization method" - SK64 ( but the forums have stuff like this posted every day )

                      I Offline
                      I Offline
                      Ilion
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #36

                      Christian Graus wrote:

                      you have no standards AND you're illiterate. Got it.

                      Moreover, *IF* you were half so bright as you like to imagine you are, you'd see that you affirmed just what you called BS.

                      O 1 Reply Last reply
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                      • O Oakman

                        Ilíon wrote:

                        “We have found no consistent associations between condom use and lower HIV-infection rates, which, 25 years into the pandemic, we should be seeing if this intervention was working.”

                        Presumably then condums don't prevent any STD, inspite of the hundreds of studies showing otherwise. I suppose this could be because the AIDs virus is much cleverer than the syphillis virus and knows how to climb up to the top of the condum and slip out that way. . .or maybe the AIDs virus is so virulent that it melts microscopic holes in the condum. . .or maybe. . . :confused:

                        Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

                        I Offline
                        I Offline
                        Ilion
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #37

                        You're such a "troll."

                        O 1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • I Ilion

                          Christian Graus wrote:

                          What are you, 8 years old ? You're the one who said you had no standards.

                          You're such a liar. And so irrational -- you seem to imagine that I have some sort of duty to take you seriously.

                          O Offline
                          O Offline
                          Oakman
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #38

                          Ilíon wrote:

                          you seem to imagine that I have some sort of duty to take you seriously

                          Actually Christian's problem is he has retained the capacity for being surprised by your irrationality.

                          Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

                          1 Reply Last reply
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                          • I Ilion

                            Christian Graus wrote:

                            you have no standards AND you're illiterate. Got it.

                            Moreover, *IF* you were half so bright as you like to imagine you are, you'd see that you affirmed just what you called BS.

                            O Offline
                            O Offline
                            Oakman
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #39

                            Ilíon wrote:

                            Moreover, *IF* you were half so bright as you like to imagine you are, you'd see that you affirmed just what you called BS.

                            Troy, if you were twice as intelligent as you try to convince yourself you are, you still wouldn't have half the IQ, half the talent, half the skill, or a tenth of the money that Christian has.

                            Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

                            1 Reply Last reply
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                            • I Ilion

                              You're such a "troll."

                              O Offline
                              O Offline
                              Oakman
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #40

                              Ilíon wrote:

                              You're such a "troll."

                              I knew you'd see the utter ludicrousness of your claims and revert to schoolyard insults. :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Condoms cause AIDS and coughing saves you from a heart attack! Boy you are a medical genius!

                              Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface

                              1 Reply Last reply
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