Human predictability
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
Depends, some people are pretty easy, some really aren't. I'd say that 75% is applicable to normal people. It's when people are either particularly creative, basket cases, absent minded, or worse yet any combination of the three that they get difficult. That said, my experience with good engineers and cats is that herding them involves more bribery than anticipating their actions. What that says about them I'll leave up to you guys.
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Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most. Before you try to dispute that by bringing up charitable donations, that "benefit" isn't necessarily financial, or even tangible. If someone is choosing whether to donate some amount of money to a charity, they're weighing the tangible benefit of having that money against the emotional benefit of making the donation (Well, there are other possible benefits, but let's keep it simple). Even when I do something completely random, just to confuse people, I'm deciding that the brief satisfaction I get from messing with peoples' heads benefits me more than the expected action :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most.
The exception to this is why I include absent minded people on my list of 'hard to peg', if they don't know what they were going to do, it's fairly hard to anticipate what they're going to do next. I say this living a bit of a space cadet who is never driving in a convoy again.
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CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Why does that sound like dialogue from a porn film? Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Depends, some people are pretty easy, some really aren't. I'd say that 75% is applicable to normal people. It's when people are either particularly creative, basket cases, absent minded, or worse yet any combination of the three that they get difficult. That said, my experience with good engineers and cats is that herding them involves more bribery than anticipating their actions. What that says about them I'll leave up to you guys.
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Ian Shlasko wrote:
Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
You mean a porn film where homeland security officials TSA agents wield their power over "suspects" and travelers?
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
You mean a porn film where homeland security officials TSA agents wield their power over "suspects" and travelers?
Keep your fantasies to yourself. Thanks.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Oh that's just nasty... and I'm going to condemn you as the one with the dirty mind on this one.
Distind wrote:
Oh that's just nasty... and I'm going to condemn you as the one with the dirty mind on this one.
Guilty as charged :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
This is a problem since the government (with the help of corporations like google and facebook) are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
nah, wrong again, the gov't knows everything about you before Google and Facebook, your SSN gives them everything they want from you, where you were born, where you live, where you study (or studied), how much you make, how much you have in debts, even if they want to track down a bit more, they can get your credit/debit card history (if you have one) and get your consuming habits, you can avoid google, facebook, bing, yahoo and still they will know whatever they want about you. Google, Facebook, etc just add up a bit of what they already know.
I want to die like my grandfather- asleep, not like the passengers in his car, screaming!
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nah, wrong again, the gov't knows everything about you before Google and Facebook, your SSN gives them everything they want from you, where you were born, where you live, where you study (or studied), how much you make, how much you have in debts, even if they want to track down a bit more, they can get your credit/debit card history (if you have one) and get your consuming habits, you can avoid google, facebook, bing, yahoo and still they will know whatever they want about you. Google, Facebook, etc just add up a bit of what they already know.
I want to die like my grandfather- asleep, not like the passengers in his car, screaming!
The government gets other, more personal ifnoramtion from google, facebook, and the NSA's telecommunications filters. They can dial up anybody on their system and listen to their phone, find their location with their cellphone, and allt hat.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
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I didn't copy and paste. Those are my own thoughts. Respond to my thoughts rather than my spelling. Responding to my spelling indicates that my thoughts brutally trumped your thoughts. You whimper in defeat.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
Show me your own thoughts then. Rather than the same-old, same-old dribble of half-digested, half-baked ideas taken from articles you barely understand; from unsubstantiated rumours and internet conspiracy theorists. And learn to spell - or at least use a spelling checker (or does that invade your right to be a free-form thinker?)
Real men don't use instructions. They are only the manufacturers opinion on how to put the thing together.
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CA: I knew you couldn't change. CF: I knew you'd know that. CA: Oh, I know that. AND I knew you'd know I'd know you knew. CF: But I didn't. I only knew that you'd know that I knew. Did you know THAT? CA: Of course. Name that movie :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
I didn't copy and paste. Those are my own thoughts. Respond to my thoughts rather than my spelling. Responding to my spelling indicates that my thoughts brutally trumped your thoughts. You whimper in defeat.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
Responding to my spelling indicates that my thoughts brutally trumped your thoughts.
Gasp! a dangling participle! :omg:
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Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most. Before you try to dispute that by bringing up charitable donations, that "benefit" isn't necessarily financial, or even tangible. If someone is choosing whether to donate some amount of money to a charity, they're weighing the tangible benefit of having that money against the emotional benefit of making the donation (Well, there are other possible benefits, but let's keep it simple). Even when I do something completely random, just to confuse people, I'm deciding that the brief satisfaction I get from messing with peoples' heads benefits me more than the expected action :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
I don't know but it's a good film. :thumbsup:
Join the cool kids - Come fold with us[^]
Yep, total box office failure, but such a good movie :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
The government gets other, more personal ifnoramtion from google, facebook, and the NSA's telecommunications filters. They can dial up anybody on their system and listen to their phone, find their location with their cellphone, and allt hat.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
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Have you read Foundation by Asimov? :)
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra]
No I haven't. The most I get to read these days seems to be the paper. Maybe this winter I can do some reading. I wikipediaed it and it sounds like fun to read.
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
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Just say you're against the Teaparty to CSS or you believe in GW to fat-boy. Check the reaction. :-D
Regards David R --------------------------------------------------------------- "Every program eventually becomes rococo, and then rubble." - Alan Perlis The only valid measurement of code quality: WTFs/minute.
Both reactions are very tired ones. ;P
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
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Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most. Before you try to dispute that by bringing up charitable donations, that "benefit" isn't necessarily financial, or even tangible. If someone is choosing whether to donate some amount of money to a charity, they're weighing the tangible benefit of having that money against the emotional benefit of making the donation (Well, there are other possible benefits, but let's keep it simple). Even when I do something completely random, just to confuse people, I'm deciding that the brief satisfaction I get from messing with peoples' heads benefits me more than the expected action :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)I do think people are predictable, but for varying reasons. Some are selfish, some seem to be just hard wired into people. When you political parties, or organized anything you encourage predictability. Even CSS belongs to a group, regardless of what he might say. He'd be a member of the group of people who think like the Birch Society. It doesn't really matter what group that is. There is a limit to what can be predicted I'm sure, but I don't know what that might be. Selfishness is a pretty strong motivator as you've stated already.
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
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No I haven't. The most I get to read these days seems to be the paper. Maybe this winter I can do some reading. I wikipediaed it and it sounds like fun to read.
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
It's been years since I read it, but one aspect of the story is about predicting the future based upon outcome probabilities, similar to your original post. :)
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra]
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
The group probability isn't too surprising at all. In physics, you can relate (random) quantum mechanical properties into bulk properties using the probabilities of members of the population being in each of the given states(this is called Statistical Thermodynamics). If this works for a random population, the effect will be stronger for populations where the randomness is decreased (e.g. human psychology being similar between individuals). Given enough information, I'd expect the percentage to be higher even for individuals but I don't think the science is there yet. Here is a question: if what the scientist says is true, what effect does that have on notions of free will?
ragnaroknrol The Internet is For Porn[^]
Pete o'Hanlon: If it wasn't insulting tools, I'd say you were dumber than a bag of spanners.
