Human predictability
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No I haven't. The most I get to read these days seems to be the paper. Maybe this winter I can do some reading. I wikipediaed it and it sounds like fun to read.
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
It's been years since I read it, but one aspect of the story is about predicting the future based upon outcome probabilities, similar to your original post. :)
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra]
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
The group probability isn't too surprising at all. In physics, you can relate (random) quantum mechanical properties into bulk properties using the probabilities of members of the population being in each of the given states(this is called Statistical Thermodynamics). If this works for a random population, the effect will be stronger for populations where the randomness is decreased (e.g. human psychology being similar between individuals). Given enough information, I'd expect the percentage to be higher even for individuals but I don't think the science is there yet. Here is a question: if what the scientist says is true, what effect does that have on notions of free will?
ragnaroknrol The Internet is For Porn[^]
Pete o'Hanlon: If it wasn't insulting tools, I'd say you were dumber than a bag of spanners. -
No I haven't. The most I get to read these days seems to be the paper. Maybe this winter I can do some reading. I wikipediaed it and it sounds like fun to read.
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
If this subject interests you then the Foundation series should be read. An excellent set of books to read and very pertinent to your subject. Basic premise is that the larger the group of people the easier it is to predict. Impossible to predict a single person but a large crowd is predictable and a population is easy. So Seldon, the oracle of the book predicted the fall and rise of a galactic civilisation.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity RAH
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CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
Responding to my spelling indicates that my thoughts brutally trumped your thoughts.
Gasp! a dangling participle! :omg:
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DANGLE DANGLE DANGLE
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DANGLE DANGLE DANGLE
Yes, that's all that will be of your manhood.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
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Yes, that's all that will be of your manhood.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
A dangling participle? :confused:
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A dangling participle? :confused:
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Uh...screw you!
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DANGLE DANGLE DANGLE
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Have you read Foundation by Asimov? :)
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra]
Chris Meech wrote:
Have you read Foundation by Asimov?
I knew you'd say that!
Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. or "Drink. Get drunk. Fall over." - P O'H
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
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CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Why does that sound like dialogue from a porn film? Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
a parody of Enemy of the State
When a covert Government team clean out the bowels of a rather well stacked lady? Change Y for A?
Panic, Chaos, Destruction. My work here is done. or "Drink. Get drunk. Fall over." - P O'H
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I find this thread has become predictable.
Join the cool kids - Come fold with us[^]
You would say that, wouldn't you ... :-)
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_