Cricket: Some Stats
-
Past events are not indicators of future performance. If you toss a coin 100 times and it is heads every time, the next time you toss the coin it is still a 50/50 chance of being a tails.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
-
If you toss a coin 100 times and it is heads every time, there is a higher than 99% chance that your coin is loaded or you are throwing it wrong.
Or it may just have heads on both sides. :)
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra] posting about Crystal Reports here is like discussing gay marriage on a catholic church’s website.[Nishant Sivakumar]
-
Past events are not indicators of future performance. If you toss a coin 100 times and it is heads every time, the next time you toss the coin it is still a 50/50 chance of being a tails.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
Dalek Dave wrote:
If you toss a coin 100 times and it is heads every time
That will never be the case.. if you know your math right, you should know that a *unbiased* coin tossed 100 times, will result a head ~ 50 times.
Dalek Dave wrote:
Past events are not indicators of future performance.
They do, specially the recent past. But what I pointed is not that. Some past 'pattern of events' has a tendancy to continue to the future...
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
-
Dalek Dave wrote:
If you toss a coin 100 times and it is heads every time
That will never be the case.. if you know your math right, you should know that a *unbiased* coin tossed 100 times, will result a head ~ 50 times.
Dalek Dave wrote:
Past events are not indicators of future performance.
They do, specially the recent past. But what I pointed is not that. Some past 'pattern of events' has a tendancy to continue to the future...
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Nirosh wrote:
That will never be the case.. if you know your math right, you should know that a *unbiased* coin tossed 100 times, will result a head ~ 50 times.
Incorrect. A coin would PROBABLY result in heads about 50% of the time. That's the most likely occurrence, but it doesn't necessarily have to happen that way.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Nirosh wrote:
That will never be the case.. if you know your math right, you should know that a *unbiased* coin tossed 100 times, will result a head ~ 50 times.
Incorrect. A coin would PROBABLY result in heads about 50% of the time. That's the most likely occurrence, but it doesn't necessarily have to happen that way.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)I vaguely recall (back in the dim dark uni days - this was pre-interwebs...) that there was a coin toss simulator that threw a million heads in a row, but after however many gazillion coin tosses (it just kept going and going) the average came out to something like 49.999% one way and 50.001% the other... I can't find a link to it now, but admittedly I didn't look that hard...
Reminiscing just isn't what it used to be!! If you like cars, check out the Booger Mobile blog | If you feel generous - make a donation to Camp Quality!!
-
Nirosh wrote:
That will never be the case.. if you know your math right, you should know that a *unbiased* coin tossed 100 times, will result a head ~ 50 times.
Incorrect. A coin would PROBABLY result in heads about 50% of the time. That's the most likely occurrence, but it doesn't necessarily have to happen that way.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Incorrect.
Are you sure?? :-D
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Nirosh wrote:
Are you sure?? :-D
Is that even a serious question? The probability of tossing 100 heads in a row is ~7.88861 x 10-31. It is most vehemently not impossible.
-
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Incorrect.
Are you sure?? :-D
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Yes. 100% sure. Here, I have a fairly-balanced coin... If I flip it now, what's the probability of it landing on heads? 50%, right? What if I now tell you that last week I flipped it a hundred times, and got heads a hundred times in a row? And if the week before, it flipped tails a hundred times in a row? Do you have to take all that into account before guessing the chances of me getting tails now? Do you need the entire flip history of the coin before you can calculate the odds? No, it's 50/50. It's always 50/50.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Yes. 100% sure. Here, I have a fairly-balanced coin... If I flip it now, what's the probability of it landing on heads? 50%, right? What if I now tell you that last week I flipped it a hundred times, and got heads a hundred times in a row? And if the week before, it flipped tails a hundred times in a row? Do you have to take all that into account before guessing the chances of me getting tails now? Do you need the entire flip history of the coin before you can calculate the odds? No, it's 50/50. It's always 50/50.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
Do you need the entire flip history of the coin before you can calculate the odds?
Yes.. that is how it was calculted the very first time as well, wasn't it? Any way, what I said was that the probable finalists of this world cup are India and Sri Lanka. That evidently is right. I said it based on some pattern indetified in the world cup history. So where are you now with your argument.. ??
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
-
Yes. 100% sure. Here, I have a fairly-balanced coin... If I flip it now, what's the probability of it landing on heads? 50%, right? What if I now tell you that last week I flipped it a hundred times, and got heads a hundred times in a row? And if the week before, it flipped tails a hundred times in a row? Do you have to take all that into account before guessing the chances of me getting tails now? Do you need the entire flip history of the coin before you can calculate the odds? No, it's 50/50. It's always 50/50.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
No, it's 50/50. It's always 50/50.
No it's not, it is biased to come up the same side it started. So if it is heads up when you flip it the probability of it landing on heads is 51%. So history is only important as far is it effects starting position.
Every man can tell how many goats or sheep he possesses, but not how many friends.
-
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Do you need the entire flip history of the coin before you can calculate the odds?
Yes.. that is how it was calculted the very first time as well, wasn't it? Any way, what I said was that the probable finalists of this world cup are India and Sri Lanka. That evidently is right. I said it based on some pattern indetified in the world cup history. So where are you now with your argument.. ??
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Nirosh wrote:
Yes.. that is how it was calculted the very first time as well, wasn't it?
The answer is 'no'.
Nirosh wrote:
Any way, what I said was that the probable finalists of this world cup are India and Sri Lanka. That evidently is right. I said it based on some pattern indetified in the world cup history. So where are you now with your argument.. ??
I still can't tell if you're joking or not. If not, gee, how come you haven't won the lottery about fifty times already?
-
Ian Shlasko wrote:
No, it's 50/50. It's always 50/50.
No it's not, it is biased to come up the same side it started. So if it is heads up when you flip it the probability of it landing on heads is 51%. So history is only important as far is it effects starting position.
Every man can tell how many goats or sheep he possesses, but not how many friends.
ChrisElston wrote:
No it's not, it is biased to come up the same side it started.
So if it is heads up when you flip it the probability of it landing on heads is 51%.
So history is only important as far is it effects starting position.
:confused: Is THAT a joke?
-
ChrisElston wrote:
No it's not, it is biased to come up the same side it started.
So if it is heads up when you flip it the probability of it landing on heads is 51%.
So history is only important as far is it effects starting position.
:confused: Is THAT a joke?
-
No. Large and slow pdf[^]
Every man can tell how many goats or sheep he possesses, but not how many friends.
OK, I admit, that was pretty interesting, but of course a real coin flip is basically deterministic. It's not surprising that under certain conditions it will be statistically more likely to land on one side over the other. But it's not a function of its history, but rather how it's flipped and how it lands.
-
1983 - Winner India 1992 - Winner Packistan 1996 - Winner Sri Lanka 1999 - Runner up Pakistan 2003 - Runner up India 2007 - Runner up Sri Lanka 2010 - It has to be either Sri Lanka, India or Pakistan it cannot be New Zeland Among the three, Indians are the favourite while Sri Lankans also is having a chance.. Sri Lanka vs England match was so funny that commentators from Europe were living in a mythical world. They were self-satisfying themself commenting like they can win over mighty Sri Lankans with that small total of 229. Who they trying to fool.. Who in the world with a fair mind think that one can win over Sri Lanka by asking them to chase that small total in their home territory, poor of them..they thought so.. Except for them, all of us new that Lankans going to win it when England were scoring at around 4 runs per over.. I feel sorry about South Africans.. they deserve a world cup Win.
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
-
Past events are not indicators of future performance. If you toss a coin 100 times and it is heads every time, the next time you toss the coin it is still a 50/50 chance of being a tails.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
Dalek Dave wrote:
If you toss a coin 100 times and it is heads every time, the next time you toss the coin it is still a 50/50 chance of being a tails.
There is different way to look at these kind of events. If an event gives result X in run one, probability of same result is 10% in run two. Although if it happens second time, probability of same result in third occurrence is 90%. I have totally forgotten where and in what context and in which Math book I read this. Although something within myself tells me that this was a generalization rather than for some specific event. /Off to search google on this one
"Your code will never work, Luc's always will.", Richard MacCutchan[^]
-
1983 - Winner India 1992 - Winner Packistan 1996 - Winner Sri Lanka 1999 - Runner up Pakistan 2003 - Runner up India 2007 - Runner up Sri Lanka 2010 - It has to be either Sri Lanka, India or Pakistan it cannot be New Zeland Among the three, Indians are the favourite while Sri Lankans also is having a chance.. Sri Lanka vs England match was so funny that commentators from Europe were living in a mythical world. They were self-satisfying themself commenting like they can win over mighty Sri Lankans with that small total of 229. Who they trying to fool.. Who in the world with a fair mind think that one can win over Sri Lanka by asking them to chase that small total in their home territory, poor of them..they thought so.. Except for them, all of us new that Lankans going to win it when England were scoring at around 4 runs per over.. I feel sorry about South Africans.. they deserve a world cup Win.
- A random opportunity is like a taller chair, those who sit hang on, those who hang on fall L.W.C. Nirosh. Colombo, Sri Lanka.
-
OK, I admit, that was pretty interesting, but of course a real coin flip is basically deterministic. It's not surprising that under certain conditions it will be statistically more likely to land on one side over the other. But it's not a function of its history, but rather how it's flipped and how it lands.
Is one side of a coin heavier? (Due to the engraving) :)
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
-