Now Hansen of GISS says the models inaccurately overestimated the effect of CO2.
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/20/friday-funny-hansens-book-of-horrors/#more-40279[^] "We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be -1.6 \pm 0.3 W/m2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large [negative] forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change" No shit, the IPCC has been saying for ages that much of the climate system has a "very low level of scientific understanding" Hansen also says this: "A recent decrease in ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. " Is he finally going to consider OHC as a better indicator than the surface stations? :omg:
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
fat_boy wrote:
as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change
Which is why more sophisticated modelling of atmospheric chemistry[^] is being introduced into Climate Models. When the Danes and others have modelled the effects of cosmic radiation on aerosol production, doubtless that too will be incorporated. Such improvements in modelling 'complicate' the Climate Models by increasing the variability of their projections, thus decreasing the certainty of climate predictions.
fat_boy wrote:
No sh*t, the IPCC has been saying for ages that much of the climate system has a "very low level of scientific understanding"
And yet these models' projections provided the basis for destabilising the world's economies.
Everybody is elitist to a certain extent; except me - I'm better than that. Micah
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Wow, you came all the way from the lounge just to post this! :)
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
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fat_boy wrote:
as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change
Which is why more sophisticated modelling of atmospheric chemistry[^] is being introduced into Climate Models. When the Danes and others have modelled the effects of cosmic radiation on aerosol production, doubtless that too will be incorporated. Such improvements in modelling 'complicate' the Climate Models by increasing the variability of their projections, thus decreasing the certainty of climate predictions.
fat_boy wrote:
No sh*t, the IPCC has been saying for ages that much of the climate system has a "very low level of scientific understanding"
And yet these models' projections provided the basis for destabilising the world's economies.
Everybody is elitist to a certain extent; except me - I'm better than that. Micah
ict558 wrote:
Such improvements in modelling 'complicate' the Climate Models by increasing the variability of their projections, thus decreasing the certainty of climate predictions.
Its possible, very remotely possible, that they might actually arrive at a model that is very close to the real thing. Its unlikely, natural systems are so complex. The classic laminar to turbulent boundary layer modeling problem is a classic example.
ict558 wrote:
And yet these models' projections provided the basis for destabilising the world's economies.
They got the cart before the horse with AGW. The IPCC, in fact AGW itself was a theory that was used politically before it was proved in any way. Fact is the wests (and US's in particular) industrial-military complex is not balanced equally or appropriately by a UN driven anti consumerist wealth redistibution plan like AGW. The USSR was better, but with its failing, it got replaced by AGW, but its really not up to the task.
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
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Trollslayer wrote:
*Tucks Wizz in*
Now that could be real confusing for those who don't know you! ;P ;P Peter
Software rusts. Simon Stephenson, ca 1994.
:laugh: :laugh: :thumbsup:
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
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Wow, you came all the way from the lounge just to post this! :)
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
or SoapBox, but yes, I did enter the Backroom...
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
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or SoapBox, but yes, I did enter the Backroom...
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
Yeah, so if you are going to wander in here and go "zzzzzz" at my rants I'll post them in th eLounge! :)
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
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Yeah, so if you are going to wander in here and go "zzzzzz" at my rants I'll post them in th eLounge! :)
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
At least you're safe from downvoting in here.
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
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At least you're safe from downvoting in here.
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
Do I care? :)
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
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Do I care? :)
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost
:zzz: What were we going on about now?
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
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:zzz: What were we going on about now?
Craigslist Troll: litaly@comcast.net "I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson
Nothing of interest to you I assume. :)
Dr D Evans "The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guess that was proved false by empirical evidence during the 1990s" financialpost