Where did all the money go?

Oakman

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

But you and I agree that any American protectionism will be bad news for all and Europe will need to have a robust response.

Perhaps the EU could start by lowering its own trade barriers? Or do you believe they don't exist?

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

Presently, EU without UK participation is unthinkable

To whom? The UK or to the EU?

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Lost User

Jon, there is no getting away from the fact that if UK withdraws its membership of the EU that it will adversely affect the quantity and quality of trade. As UK no longer trades to the extent it once did with Commonwealth nations, there would be no short-term comfort to be had by trying to re-establish those trade-links. If USA chooses to go protectionist (as reported might happen - personally I doubt that outcome though), then the world, not just Britain, would be in for a very long winded bumpy ride. Boosting trade with China would be nice but again not a short-term solution. That leaves EU, and the relationship between UK & EU thus cannot fail. Salvation ? no, necessary.

Lost User

Oakman wrote:

Perhaps the EU could start by lowering its own trade barriers? Or do you believe they don't exist?

Yes they exist for some commodities, and they should be removed on a like for like basis with barriers that exist in America and other countries.

Oakman wrote:

To whom? The UK or to the EU?

Both.

KaRl

Rob Caldecott wrote:

People will still eat. They will still get healthcare.

Really? Some people already don't. Not everybody has something to eat everyday, and a growing number have no access to health care. I don't think the crisis will help to solve this situation, on the contrary.

Rob Caldecott wrote:

there won't be 'social collapse'.

I disagree. I think there could be huge social disorders, which are already starting this side of the Channel.

The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread Fold with us! ¤ flickr

Dalek Dave

yeah, started in 1914

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Oakman

Dalek Dave wrote:

An old alliance, tempered over the years by differences, but still a strong bond as H Clinton said yesterday.

No question. (Although we still owe you one for burning the White House :mad: )

Dalek Dave wrote:

We may have our obligations to Europe, especially our obligations to save France from German domination.

Maybe that should be rethought. ;)

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Dalek Dave

If UK were outside the EU, would we still trade with it? Yep, example... We are one of the biggest markets for French Wines and French Cars. German Cars and German Pizzas (Seriously). Italian Leather and Italian Cheese. Etc They would want to sell to us, so they could not close our market down. We would be like Norway and Switzerland, a trading partner, not but part of the EU. Look at those poor third world European Countries like Norway and Switzerland, think how much richer they would be. All they have to do is give up their own laws and currencies and surrender themselves to the unelected commissioners that rule by dictat without democratic elections and they too could enjoy the lack of freedoms and rights that we do. They could give up their successful economies too, so that they could pay for Poland and Romania. Or perhaps the thought of UK surviving outside the EU, not being saddled with the CAP and producing as much milk and meat and grain as it could and therefore selling it far cheaper than anyone else in Europe upsets you. Maybe it is our trade links and free entry to the US market that hurts deep down? OK, UK is in trouble, but it is far from fucked.

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Lost User

Rob Caldecott wrote:

Jesus, you're such a scaremonger. Your posts read like f***ing Daily Mail headlines

Recall, oh, whats his name, the chancellor, his comments last year in september. He said the economy was in a frightening state. He was right. Bcak in october the system nearly colapsed. Tell me, what kind of conversations do you think are being held behind closed doors onm the corridors of power that could result in an interest rate cut of 1.5%? Tell you what, they were scary, Scary as in, 'if we dont do this we are going down the pan' 'and hope to god its enough'. Yes, the UK will recover, people are like that, but dont think for one minute that house prices will get back to the same dizzying heights they did in 2007. The machine is broken. And they are not going to put it back together. All the govt can do is by taking ownership of the banks not forclose on mortage repayment failure. Quite whaty the state of the property becomes is anyoes guess. PArt owned by the govt, to whom the ex-owner now pays rent? Sounds like council housing to me. Perhaps it is what has to happen to save the UK.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Dalek Dave

Oakman wrote:

Although we still owe you one for burning the White House

Hey, you got a nice new one in it's place! (Who you put in it is your own business!)

Oakman wrote:

Dalek Dave wrote: We may have our obligations to Europe, especially our obligations to save France from German domination. Maybe that should be rethought

Hmm 1914, 1939, 2009(?)

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Lost User

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

But Britain will eventually recover

Yeah, in about 10 years.

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

But your remark "economic and hence social collapse" is not helpful

Neither is cancer, but its often the truth. OK, facileness aside, The UK is on the brink of collapse. One way out is to massively devalue the pound and go back to a manufacturing exporting state, but its going to take years (10) to pay off the collective debt built up by false property prices. Tell me, house proces have come off by 20%. How much more do you reken they need to go before they reach 'fair value' (when banks will start lending on property again? That difference is the negative equity sum owners will be saddled with if they fail to make payments and the house is reposessed. Next, how long will that debt take to pay off assuming work can be found? During that period of paying of (possibly £50,000) will people be eating out? Going on holiday? Buying new cars? New TVs?

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Oakman

I note in passing that implicit in what you are saying is there are strong protectionist barriers placed by the EU when it comes to trade with non member countries.

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

Salvation ? no, necessary

Something tells me that France will do everything in its power slowly to reduce the UK to third world status as long as you remain in. FWIW, my guess is that if the US becomes more protectionist - say to the same amount that our trading partners are - it will very quickly create a meaningful "most favored nation" status for a few countries like Canada, Ireland, Israel and Great Britain. But that's just conjecture. I do see where you are coming from.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Lost User

Oakman wrote:

French SB-er is in denial about the effects of the crisis on the EU/France and gloating over the problems that the UK has

No gloating here. Our UK house has halved its euro value in the last 12 months. I fully expect it to drop another 20% in sterling, and if sterling devalues as I believe it must and it has already by 40% against the euro) then take off another 20% in euros terms. I am not gloating, just looking at reality. And plenty of people in the UK want to keep hoping, and not acting. (And I wish we had sold, because come october I would have been able to buy 4 houses)

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Lost User

Dalek Dave wrote:

Maybe it is our trade links and free entry to the US market that hurts deep down? OK, UK is in trouble, but it is far from f***ed.

Yes to both points.

Dalek Dave wrote:

UK surviving outside the EU, not being saddled with the CAP and producing as much milk and meat and grain as it could and therefore selling it far cheaper than anyone else in Europe upsets you

No, the CAP is overdue for reform but the French farmers seem to have some hold over the French Government so the CAP although reform is desirable but not achievable because of the French veto. The UK farmers already are having their selling prices of produce trimmed by the ever-so-nice supermarkets and would not be able to lower their costs significantly to make it even cheaper short of paying their farm hands and farm workers smaller wages which would require a change in minimum wages law.

Dalek Dave wrote:

They would want to sell to us, so they could not close our market down.

But IMO they would make it ever so much harder for UK companies to win contracts.

Lost User

Dalek Dave wrote:

But we are culturally and politically closer to the US and Canada

No, not culturally. We are closer to Europe in this respect, a lot closer.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Lost User

Negative equity is nothing new - plenty of people had £25,000 or more of negative equity in the early 90s, but hey, funnily enough we survived. And others will profit out of lower prices - my first property was a repossession - I wouldn't of been able to get onto the housing ladder if it wasn't for the early-90s recession and this won't be any different - housing will become more affordable so the younger generation (and those who currently rent or have been holding off) will be in a position to buy. Coupled with the population pressures the UK faxes, especially in the South East, the housing market will eventually recover and the cycle will begin again. Banks and building societies are still lending, albeit at record lows, but the money and confidence will reappear sooner or later.

Oakman

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

they should be removed on a like for like basis with barriers that exist in America and other countries.

Okay. We'll stop trying to bankrupt your major software companies if you'll stop trying to bankrupt ours. ;)

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

Both.

Interesting.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Oakman

fat_boy wrote:

Yes, the UK will recover, people are like that, but dont think for one minute that house prices will get back to the same dizzying heights they did in 2007

Why is that a bad thing? Once the mortgages adjust accordingly (and they will, either by fiat or because the banks are ready to settle for half a loaf) how will it make a difference? If my house costs 1 X and your house costs 10X, you can still lord it over me for any value of X. And both of us will still exist in only one room at a time.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Oakman

Dalek Dave wrote:

Hmm 1914, 1939, 2009(?)

Well, it's your business, of course, but this time don't ask us to help. Last time all we got in return was a bunch of snooty French waiters.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Lost User

Oakman wrote:

I note in passing that implicit in what you are saying is there are strong protectionist barriers placed by the EU when it comes to trade with non member countries.

Well you can read this PDF United States Barriers to Trade and Investment Report for 2007[^]. Both US & EU are not "whiter than white" in terms of trade barriers.

Oakman

fat_boy wrote:

We are closer to Europe in this respect, a lot closer.

You are, but I don't think Britain is. (Not so sure about Scotland.)

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.