I hope I'm right.

Ed Gadziemski

Stocks rebounded off of 12-year lows Wednesday after the Obama administration launched its mortgage-rescue plan to help millions of struggling homeowners stay in their homes.[^] I predicted a few months ago that the market bottom would be around 6,800. I estimate it will bounce around the bottom +/- 300 points or so for the rest of this year and begin recovery next year. There may be a random spike or trough here and there but overall things are looking up. Keeping in mind of course that the stock market is NOT the economy and that it is a poor indicator of true national health and wealth.

Oakman

Ed Gadziemski wrote:

Keeping in mind of course that the stock market is NOT the economy and that it is a poor indicator of true national health and wealth.

Unless, of course, you have a 401K and realise that there's a good chance you'll be dead before your stocks get back to where they were a year ago and you can retire. :omg:

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Ed Gadziemski

Oakman wrote:

you have a 401K and realise that there's a good chance you'll be dead before your stocks get back to where they were a year ago and you can retire

That's why good 401K fund managers advised: - Don't invest in your own company - Diversify your holdings between index funds and bonds - Invest for earnings (dividends) not illusory gains in trading prices If a person's retirement plan was based on the theory that stock prices will continue to rise forever despite P/Es the past dozen years that are way out of whack with reality, then they have no standing to throw stones at those who bought houses they couldn't afford on the theory that prices would rise forever. Same coin, different face.

Mike Gaskey

Ed Gadziemski wrote:

That's why good 401K fund managers advised

give'm hell Ed. fyi - the Charlie Huston series that I mentioned the other day was a crime series: Caught Stealing, Six Bad Things and Dangerous Man. Just starting Dangerous Man.

Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.

Chris Austin

I really hope you are right. Even here in DFW where things are relatively stable many people are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Ed Gadziemski wrote:

There may be a random spike or trough here and there but overall things are looking up.

I tend to not look at the broader market when trading but it could well be a bear market rally. In a few weeks we will see if the market has actually capitulated or if people are just barging hunting.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?

Chris Austin

Ed Gadziemski wrote:

- Invest for earnings (dividends) not illusory gains in trading prices

I remember stating this in my own way and good old RedStater jumped down my throat.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?

Oakman

Ed Gadziemski wrote:

Don't invest in your own company - Diversify your holdings between index funds and bonds - Invest for earnings (dividends) not illusory gains in trading prices

Good advice of course. But even if followed, it would not ameliorate the loss of capital experienced when the value of your stock holdings is cut in half. One of the reasons to hope that stock prices go up is because you are hedging against inflation. When they drop as they have, their real value, not their gain/loss in trading price is less when measured in constant dollars.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Stan Shannon

You're not. There is absolutely nothing that is being done which is even intended to improve the markets. Obama continues to talk down the economy precisely so the markets will continue to retreat. That increases the need to have him save us from the evils of capitalism. And there are plenty of morons out there such as yourself who will buy into it all. But thats fine with me.

Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.

kmg365

When the country is sufficiently deconstructed and when the government owns the methods of production then all will be accomplished. That is when it will end.

kmg365

click[^]

Rob Graham

Keep your powder dry.

kmg365

500 rounds of wad cutter .38 just arrived today. Off to the gun range on Friday (lunch time) for target practice. :)

modified on Wednesday, March 4, 2009 9:07 PM

Ed Gadziemski

Chris Austin wrote:

good old RedStater jumped down my throat

Good ol' Red. Whatever happened to him? Did y'all just get tired of him one day and have him exterminated?

Ed Gadziemski

Oakman wrote:

real value ... is less when measured in constant dollars

True. But you gotta admit that P/E of 25, 50, 100 or more is ridiculous when the historical average is 14. If a company ain't earning, it's stock ain't appreciating, and in the last few years we've had executives more interested in feathering their own nest than in growing the intrinsic value of their company.

Ed Gadziemski

That's inconsistent, Stan. If Obama is talking down the market, I should be buying into the pessimism but instead I'm feeling a touch of optimism.

Ed Gadziemski · modified on Wednesday, March 4, 2009 9:07 PM

I'll place odds on the guvmint when your personal Ruby Ridge or Waco comes to fruition.

Chris Austin

Ed Gadziemski wrote:

Whatever happened to him? Did y'all just get tired of him one day and have him exterminated?

I think one of our resident kiddies figured out his real identity by abusing the email to link :laugh: and he ran home to his mommy.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long Avoid the crowd. Do your own thinking independently. Be the chess player, not the chess piece. --?

kmg365

Ed Gadziemski wrote:

Ruby

I have not worked with Ruby on Rails, so can not really comment any particular API's. Perhaps you could explain further.

IdUnknown

It's hard to see the market bottom because the Credit Default Obligation (CDO) is still out there and haven't unwind, and no one is discussing on how to do deal with it. The way the government is dealing with the CDO right now is to prop up AGI, Citi and probably Bank of America. Also, Alt-A and Option Arm mortgage are just starting to reset. Unemployment is still going up, the estimate announced today is 700,000 new ones for February, which is up from January. I can go on but I will stop here. It all sound like doom and gloom but it's reality. If see the light at the end of the tunnel, make sure your are not hearing choo-choo, choo-choo.

Tim Craig

Chris Austin wrote:

he ran home to his mommy.

He didn't like it very much when the worm turned on him. :rolleyes:

"Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." -- P.J. O'Rourke