You're Welcome
-
Don't gloat so soon.
Rob Graham wrote:
Don't gloat so soon.
I also think the market will stay at or near 6,800 for most of this year, so the current rise is probably just an "irrational exuberance" spike that will fade before long.
-
Rob Graham wrote:
Don't gloat so soon.
I also think the market will stay at or near 6,800 for most of this year, so the current rise is probably just an "irrational exuberance" spike that will fade before long.
I agree, and the important part of your self congratulations was the "sell today" part. There will be more opportunities for profits, but it will be a while before a general recovery happens. I still worry about the inflationary impact of the now $3T that has been printed (Tarp1, Porkulus, and Bernanke's Buy Back + Geithner's "Legacy asset" loan program). Putting the breaks on that inflationary momentum will hurt.
-
I agree, and the important part of your self congratulations was the "sell today" part. There will be more opportunities for profits, but it will be a while before a general recovery happens. I still worry about the inflationary impact of the now $3T that has been printed (Tarp1, Porkulus, and Bernanke's Buy Back + Geithner's "Legacy asset" loan program). Putting the breaks on that inflationary momentum will hurt.
Inflation has been underreported for years, and some sectors of the economy have actually experienced severe deflation. The extra $3T should help align the money supply with reality. (Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series[^]) While there is correlation between overall money supply and inflation (The Money Supply and Inflation[^]), the unanswered question is whether increases in the money supply are a response to or result of inflation. Keep in mind that the last big inflationary period, 1979 to 1981, (Consumer Price Index 1913 - 2009[^]) was necessary to absorb the increased energy costs resulting from OPEC price fixing in the 1970s.
-
Inflation has been underreported for years, and some sectors of the economy have actually experienced severe deflation. The extra $3T should help align the money supply with reality. (Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series[^]) While there is correlation between overall money supply and inflation (The Money Supply and Inflation[^]), the unanswered question is whether increases in the money supply are a response to or result of inflation. Keep in mind that the last big inflationary period, 1979 to 1981, (Consumer Price Index 1913 - 2009[^]) was necessary to absorb the increased energy costs resulting from OPEC price fixing in the 1970s.
Ed Gadziemski wrote:
Keep in mind that the last big inflationary period, 1979 to 1981, (Consumer Price Index 1913 - 2009[^]) was necessary to absorb the increased energy costs resulting from OPEC price fixing in the 1970s
That does not make it a good thing, or something we should repeat more and more often with larger and larger amounts of inflation - which is what appears to be happening. Since we came off the gold standard inflation has become a much bigger issue than it has ever been before. That China is now eyeing askance at the value of their holdings should be a clear indication that we have problems.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
-
Rob Graham wrote:
Don't gloat so soon.
I also think the market will stay at or near 6,800 for most of this year, so the current rise is probably just an "irrational exuberance" spike that will fade before long.
-
Ed Gadziemski wrote:
Keep in mind that the last big inflationary period, 1979 to 1981, (Consumer Price Index 1913 - 2009[^]) was necessary to absorb the increased energy costs resulting from OPEC price fixing in the 1970s
That does not make it a good thing, or something we should repeat more and more often with larger and larger amounts of inflation - which is what appears to be happening. Since we came off the gold standard inflation has become a much bigger issue than it has ever been before. That China is now eyeing askance at the value of their holdings should be a clear indication that we have problems.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
Oakman wrote:
inflation has become a much bigger issue than it has ever been before.
I'm painfully aware of that. The inputs to my retail business, i.e. shipping costs, cost of goods, labor, etc. have risen by about 50% over the past 18 months, and that's on top of fairly high inflation the 2 or 3 years prior while the price I can sell at has remained stagnant. UPS rates have gone through the roof because of the cost of fuel. Hidden inflation is running about 30% annually I think, even though the "official" rate is only 2 or 3%. Many manufacturers are cheapening the quality of the product while increasing the price they charge wholesalers. Favorite tricks (besides manufacturing in China) are to reduce the quality of the paper and plastic used in the packaging, reducing the quantity (for example, a 2 pack of something that sold for $5 3 years ago is now a 1 pack that sells for $5), and skimping on the materials used in the product and the care/quality with which it is constructed.
-
Oakman wrote:
inflation has become a much bigger issue than it has ever been before.
I'm painfully aware of that. The inputs to my retail business, i.e. shipping costs, cost of goods, labor, etc. have risen by about 50% over the past 18 months, and that's on top of fairly high inflation the 2 or 3 years prior while the price I can sell at has remained stagnant. UPS rates have gone through the roof because of the cost of fuel. Hidden inflation is running about 30% annually I think, even though the "official" rate is only 2 or 3%. Many manufacturers are cheapening the quality of the product while increasing the price they charge wholesalers. Favorite tricks (besides manufacturing in China) are to reduce the quality of the paper and plastic used in the packaging, reducing the quantity (for example, a 2 pack of something that sold for $5 3 years ago is now a 1 pack that sells for $5), and skimping on the materials used in the product and the care/quality with which it is constructed.
Ed Gadziemski wrote:
The inputs to my retail business, i.e. shipping costs, cost of goods, labor, etc. have risen by about 50% over the past 18 months, and that's on top of fairly high inflation the 2 or 3 years prior while the price I can sell at has remained stagnant.
What are you doing to stay in business?
Ed Gadziemski wrote:
are to reduce the quality of the paper and plastic used in the packaging
I've been experiencing that. It sucks.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
-
Oakman wrote:
inflation has become a much bigger issue than it has ever been before.
I'm painfully aware of that. The inputs to my retail business, i.e. shipping costs, cost of goods, labor, etc. have risen by about 50% over the past 18 months, and that's on top of fairly high inflation the 2 or 3 years prior while the price I can sell at has remained stagnant. UPS rates have gone through the roof because of the cost of fuel. Hidden inflation is running about 30% annually I think, even though the "official" rate is only 2 or 3%. Many manufacturers are cheapening the quality of the product while increasing the price they charge wholesalers. Favorite tricks (besides manufacturing in China) are to reduce the quality of the paper and plastic used in the packaging, reducing the quantity (for example, a 2 pack of something that sold for $5 3 years ago is now a 1 pack that sells for $5), and skimping on the materials used in the product and the care/quality with which it is constructed.
Ed Gadziemski wrote:
reducing the quantity
Yeah, in the grocery store I'm getting really tired of the 14 oz pound. :laugh:
"Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it." -- P.J. O'Rourke
I'm a proud denizen of the Real Soapbox[^]
ACCEPT NO SUBSTITUTES!!! -
Ed Gadziemski wrote:
The inputs to my retail business, i.e. shipping costs, cost of goods, labor, etc. have risen by about 50% over the past 18 months, and that's on top of fairly high inflation the 2 or 3 years prior while the price I can sell at has remained stagnant.
What are you doing to stay in business?
Ed Gadziemski wrote:
are to reduce the quality of the paper and plastic used in the packaging
I've been experiencing that. It sucks.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
Oakman wrote:
What are you doing to stay in business?
Paying myself less, cutting some employees to half-time, squeezing suppliers as much as possible, writing software to automate the warehousing and shipping functions, reducing advertising and marketing, and delaying the purchase of capital equipment and real estate.
-
Oakman wrote:
What are you doing to stay in business?
Paying myself less, cutting some employees to half-time, squeezing suppliers as much as possible, writing software to automate the warehousing and shipping functions, reducing advertising and marketing, and delaying the purchase of capital equipment and real estate.
