Recovery or not?

Lost User

UK: Credit markets are jammed up but mortgage lending is improving. House prices increasing, but jobless expected to go to 10% yet. Deficit to 10% too. CBI says recovery spring next year. US: Unemployment rate flattening, house prices stabilising, but is there a recovery yet? Europe: Did it even go into the recession yet? (OK the car industry has been behaving odly recently, BMW down 40%, Fiat up 17%. Perhaps the European corporates have suspended company car purchases as a measure of caution?) Asia: Dont know. Some interesting figures though, Burbery saw sales up 14% due to the low pound. If the UK can keep the exchange rate where it is for a few years its an excellent chance for exporters. The car industry, agriculture, and perhaps even old coal mines could be reopened as selling into europe would be profitcable now. (Perhaps AGW needs to die completely before countries will stomach using coal widely again). Pretty sure we have seen the stock market bottom though, (oil metals and construction was in october/november, banks in late jan). Who else rekons on a flat to bearish year till october when we will see a true bull market? (Somewhat in line with the old saying, "sell in may and go away" perhaps?) Anyway, just took profit on a 400% increase in some Taylor Wimpey stock I have had for a couple of months so I'm pretty happy right now!

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Oakman

fat_boy wrote:

Anyway, just took profit on a 400% increase in some Taylor Wimpey stock I have had for a couple of months so I'm pretty happy right now!

I'm glad, but based on the earnings reports coming in this morning and the realization that the bank "profits" being reported in an attempt to keep the executives' pay intact are created with accounting only matched by Bernie Madoff's firm (Goldman Sachs decided to report on an 11-month year so they could skip reporting their December losses of over a billion), I expect the market to tank again. I've been wrong before, but I still like gold and other precious metals far more than shares in what seems to be an only slightly mitigated disaster. A disaster that I am beginning to think will become even worse once the immediate jolt of the U.S.'s spending subsides.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Both democrats and republicans are playing for the same team and it's not us. - Chris Austin

Rob Graham

I've also seen several reports that credit is tightening back up, in spite of the tarp funding. TARP is now almost out of money, and Obama has been told that congress is not of the mood to provide more. As a result, the new plan seems to be to allow the conversion of those preferred shares that were supposed to protect the taxpayers investment to common shares, thus fucking the taxpayers if any of the banks go belly up in spite of the investment. Several banks are declining further loans due to the executive pay restrictions that come with them (possibly accounting for the credit tightening as well), but the others will be converting the preferred shares to "clean up their balance sheets". We (the taxpayers) should just get out the KY jelly and bend over. We no longer have a Democracy or a Republic, it's been replaced by a Socialist Kleptocracy (I wouldn't argue the notion that the Socialist Kleptocracy is just replacing the Capitalist one that had already killed the Republic).

Lost User

A tank would be good. Gives me a chance to put that profit back in a lower price. I might even go for taylor wimpey again if they drop back to 30p. (Used to be £4.50 ish so there is plently of long term upside if the economy gets back to a reasonable state, and I am generally a long term stock holder, although its hard to ignore the opportunities in a volatile marklet). Tell me, just how does the US get away with such dodgy accounting procedures? Its shocking how often this seems to come up, and the effects are disasterous (Enron etc). The UK and Europe, which has adopted UK accounting practices, seems far more visible, and therefore honest.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Oakman

fat_boy wrote:

just how does the US get away with such dodgy accounting procedures?

I think right now it's a matter of throwing shit against the wall hoping that some of it will stick.

fat_boy wrote:

The UK and Europe, which has adopted UK accounting practices, seems far more visible, and therefore honest.

Tell that to the stockholders of UBS. :laugh: or Credit Suisse :laugh: :laugh: What was the name of the outfit in France that maybe 18 months ago almost went belly up because they let some junior broker play the stock market on margin with their money? Idiocy and chicanery, sir, is like the sun. It shineth on Europe and the US; China and Britain alike. (with apologies to Wm Shakes)

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Both democrats and republicans are playing for the same team and it's not us. - Chris Austin

kmg365

We had a dive in US stock market yesterday. Reasons varied, but one that stood out was lack of transparency in bank financial conditions and the effect of the unseen hand of government behind the scenes. Announcement that the Executive on it's own will use TARP money to buy an increasing equity position in banks (aka nationalization). I was unclear if this was all banks that received government money (many were forced to take it even though they were healthy) or only those in trouble. Earlier TARP money was going to buy only the toxic assets, it seems there is a scope creep. My take is this a blip, it's in the administration's best interest to depress equity prices on bank stocks to gain more control over the financial system therefore they will act accordingly to talk down equities in those commercial enterprises where they seek to nationalize and the financial system is top of the list. I don't know if Fatty Brown would act different then Obama, but I suspect not. On the other hand Brown has spent all his political capital, and most of the UK's so he is somewhat limited.

Lost User

Weren't you predicting anarchy and the breakdown of society by October of this year? :)

Lost User

Yes, if the banks stopped lending on mortages. Since Brown seems to have convinced them to keep at least this credit line open the disaster seems to have been averted. Actually, it seems it was done quite early on.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription