Human predictability
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
Sounds like Asimov's 'psychohistory[^]'. I always thought it seemed like a feasible idea, but it wasn't quite the way you state it, IIRC. It was useless if you were trying to predict the actions of an individual; the ability to predict an outcome was directly related to the size of the group involved.
L u n a t i c F r i n g e
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
Just say you're against the Teaparty to CSS or you believe in GW to fat-boy. Check the reaction. :-D
Regards David R --------------------------------------------------------------- "Every program eventually becomes rococo, and then rubble." - Alan Perlis The only valid measurement of code quality: WTFs/minute.
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most. Before you try to dispute that by bringing up charitable donations, that "benefit" isn't necessarily financial, or even tangible. If someone is choosing whether to donate some amount of money to a charity, they're weighing the tangible benefit of having that money against the emotional benefit of making the donation (Well, there are other possible benefits, but let's keep it simple). Even when I do something completely random, just to confuse people, I'm deciding that the brief satisfaction I get from messing with peoples' heads benefits me more than the expected action :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
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Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most. Before you try to dispute that by bringing up charitable donations, that "benefit" isn't necessarily financial, or even tangible. If someone is choosing whether to donate some amount of money to a charity, they're weighing the tangible benefit of having that money against the emotional benefit of making the donation (Well, there are other possible benefits, but let's keep it simple). Even when I do something completely random, just to confuse people, I'm deciding that the brief satisfaction I get from messing with peoples' heads benefits me more than the expected action :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
CA: I knew you couldn't change. CF: I knew you'd know that. CA: Oh, I know that. AND I knew you'd know I'd know you knew. CF: But I didn't. I only knew that you'd know that I knew. Did you know THAT? CA: Of course. Name that movie :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
This is a problem since the government (with the help of corporations like google and facebook) are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
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This is a problem since the government (with the help of corporations like google and facebook) are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
their monitoring tenticals into
Do try and learn only to cut and paste from sites that can spell... :sigh:
Real men don't use instructions. They are only the manufacturers opinion on how to put the thing together.
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CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
their monitoring tenticals into
Do try and learn only to cut and paste from sites that can spell... :sigh:
Real men don't use instructions. They are only the manufacturers opinion on how to put the thing together.
I didn't copy and paste. Those are my own thoughts. Respond to my thoughts rather than my spelling. Responding to my spelling indicates that my thoughts brutally trumped your thoughts. You whimper in defeat.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
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This is a problem since the government (with the help of corporations like google and facebook) are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Why does that sound like dialogue from a porn film? Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Why does that sound like dialogue from a porn film? Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
You mean a porn film where homeland security officials TSA agents wield their power over "suspects" and travelers?
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
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I had watched an interview of a scientist on the daily show where the scientist talks about how given enough information could predict with 75% or so certainty about what a person or group will do. I don't think people are all that unpredictable. Do you find people very predictable?
That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
Depends, some people are pretty easy, some really aren't. I'd say that 75% is applicable to normal people. It's when people are either particularly creative, basket cases, absent minded, or worse yet any combination of the three that they get difficult. That said, my experience with good engineers and cats is that herding them involves more bribery than anticipating their actions. What that says about them I'll leave up to you guys.
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Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most. Before you try to dispute that by bringing up charitable donations, that "benefit" isn't necessarily financial, or even tangible. If someone is choosing whether to donate some amount of money to a charity, they're weighing the tangible benefit of having that money against the emotional benefit of making the donation (Well, there are other possible benefits, but let's keep it simple). Even when I do something completely random, just to confuse people, I'm deciding that the brief satisfaction I get from messing with peoples' heads benefits me more than the expected action :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
Sure, everyone is predictable. Each person does what they think will benefit them the most.
The exception to this is why I include absent minded people on my list of 'hard to peg', if they don't know what they were going to do, it's fairly hard to anticipate what they're going to do next. I say this living a bit of a space cadet who is never driving in a convoy again.
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CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Why does that sound like dialogue from a porn film? Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Depends, some people are pretty easy, some really aren't. I'd say that 75% is applicable to normal people. It's when people are either particularly creative, basket cases, absent minded, or worse yet any combination of the three that they get difficult. That said, my experience with good engineers and cats is that herding them involves more bribery than anticipating their actions. What that says about them I'll leave up to you guys.
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Ian Shlasko wrote:
Like... a parody of Enemy of the State... Oh wow, I just thought of a REALLY sick porn-style title for it, but I don't think I'm going to post it...
You mean a porn film where homeland security officials TSA agents wield their power over "suspects" and travelers?
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
You mean a porn film where homeland security officials TSA agents wield their power over "suspects" and travelers?
Keep your fantasies to yourself. Thanks.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Oh that's just nasty... and I'm going to condemn you as the one with the dirty mind on this one.
Distind wrote:
Oh that's just nasty... and I'm going to condemn you as the one with the dirty mind on this one.
Guilty as charged :)
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
This is a problem since the government (with the help of corporations like google and facebook) are increasing their monitoring tenticals into our daily lives.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
nah, wrong again, the gov't knows everything about you before Google and Facebook, your SSN gives them everything they want from you, where you were born, where you live, where you study (or studied), how much you make, how much you have in debts, even if they want to track down a bit more, they can get your credit/debit card history (if you have one) and get your consuming habits, you can avoid google, facebook, bing, yahoo and still they will know whatever they want about you. Google, Facebook, etc just add up a bit of what they already know.
I want to die like my grandfather- asleep, not like the passengers in his car, screaming!
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nah, wrong again, the gov't knows everything about you before Google and Facebook, your SSN gives them everything they want from you, where you were born, where you live, where you study (or studied), how much you make, how much you have in debts, even if they want to track down a bit more, they can get your credit/debit card history (if you have one) and get your consuming habits, you can avoid google, facebook, bing, yahoo and still they will know whatever they want about you. Google, Facebook, etc just add up a bit of what they already know.
I want to die like my grandfather- asleep, not like the passengers in his car, screaming!
The government gets other, more personal ifnoramtion from google, facebook, and the NSA's telecommunications filters. They can dial up anybody on their system and listen to their phone, find their location with their cellphone, and allt hat.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
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I didn't copy and paste. Those are my own thoughts. Respond to my thoughts rather than my spelling. Responding to my spelling indicates that my thoughts brutally trumped your thoughts. You whimper in defeat.
Invisible Empire: A New World Order Defined (High Quality 2:14:01)[^] Watch the Fall of the Republic (High Quality 2:24:19)[^] The Truthbox[^]
Show me your own thoughts then. Rather than the same-old, same-old dribble of half-digested, half-baked ideas taken from articles you barely understand; from unsubstantiated rumours and internet conspiracy theorists. And learn to spell - or at least use a spelling checker (or does that invade your right to be a free-form thinker?)
Real men don't use instructions. They are only the manufacturers opinion on how to put the thing together.
