Nature #470
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This is a recent study that hit the webosphere about a week ago. Basicallym, they used computer models and not the real world to get their data. Hence the words 'simulation'. In fact these climate models wre run on the publics machines; there was some kind of thing you could register with and some calculations would get run on your box and the results uploaded, hence the phrase 'publicly contributed climate simulations'. Of course this dosent make the data any more accurate, its just a marketing ploy (especially since the AGW proponents already have under theoir control some of the worlds most powerful computers (UKs MET office)). So, anyway, the data showing increased rainfall comes form a computer model, not the real world. Now I dont know whats wrong with the world today, how gullible it has become, or how used to living in virtual environments it has become, but clearly a computer simulation is not the same as the real world. And in fact real world data shows no oncrease in severe weather events. So realy, more junk science.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
fat_boy wrote:
Basicallym, they used computer models and not the real world to get their data.
They are creating a probability distribution of precipitation for the 'Industrial 2000' climate and a 'Non-Industrial 2000' climate. The second can, obviously, be obtained only through modelling; in order to compare like with like, the first is also modelled.
fat_boy wrote:
Of course this dosent make the data any more accurate,
I see no claims that it did.
fat_boy wrote:
its just a marketing ploy
Twaddle. They had originally intended to use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, but decided to use distributed computing instead.
fat_boy wrote:
the AGW proponents already have under theoir control some of the worlds most powerful computers
They have to pay for those resources, and join the queue, hence their use of BOINC on their partners' - Risk Management Solutions - workstations (and other volunteers, no doubt.)
fat_boy wrote:
So, anyway, the data showing increased rainfall comes form a computer model, not the real world.
There was increased rainfall in 2000: in the UK, in the real world. They are trying to determine the probability of it being anthropogenic. (BTW, there was also > 1200mm rainfall in 1768, 1852, and 1872, with Great Fludes)
fat_boy wrote:
So realy, more junk science.
I concur, but not for the somewhat flippant reasons given by you and the two Chrisses. Take Sea Surface Temperatures: The 'Industrial 2000' climate uses NOAA's Weekly Means; The 'Non-Industrial 2000' climate uses Weekly Means from which those temperature changes attributable to greenhouse gasses have been removed. However, these changes are available only at a Seasonal resolution, and thus have to be interpolated to a Weekly resolution! At that point, I would dismiss it as junk. Iteration after iteration of the models to "span the range of uncertainty", and if we find the 'Scandanavian Pattern' and a flood, we're home and wet. As for the other paper: "Nature Unleashes a Flood ... of Bad Science"[
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fat_boy wrote:
Basicallym, they used computer models and not the real world to get their data.
They are creating a probability distribution of precipitation for the 'Industrial 2000' climate and a 'Non-Industrial 2000' climate. The second can, obviously, be obtained only through modelling; in order to compare like with like, the first is also modelled.
fat_boy wrote:
Of course this dosent make the data any more accurate,
I see no claims that it did.
fat_boy wrote:
its just a marketing ploy
Twaddle. They had originally intended to use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, but decided to use distributed computing instead.
fat_boy wrote:
the AGW proponents already have under theoir control some of the worlds most powerful computers
They have to pay for those resources, and join the queue, hence their use of BOINC on their partners' - Risk Management Solutions - workstations (and other volunteers, no doubt.)
fat_boy wrote:
So, anyway, the data showing increased rainfall comes form a computer model, not the real world.
There was increased rainfall in 2000: in the UK, in the real world. They are trying to determine the probability of it being anthropogenic. (BTW, there was also > 1200mm rainfall in 1768, 1852, and 1872, with Great Fludes)
fat_boy wrote:
So realy, more junk science.
I concur, but not for the somewhat flippant reasons given by you and the two Chrisses. Take Sea Surface Temperatures: The 'Industrial 2000' climate uses NOAA's Weekly Means; The 'Non-Industrial 2000' climate uses Weekly Means from which those temperature changes attributable to greenhouse gasses have been removed. However, these changes are available only at a Seasonal resolution, and thus have to be interpolated to a Weekly resolution! At that point, I would dismiss it as junk. Iteration after iteration of the models to "span the range of uncertainty", and if we find the 'Scandanavian Pattern' and a flood, we're home and wet. As for the other paper: "Nature Unleashes a Flood ... of Bad Science"[
I didnt have access to the full article to look at it in detail, I only read the precis, but yeah, what you found is also questionable.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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I didnt have access to the full article to look at it in detail, I only read the precis, but yeah, what you found is also questionable.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
fat_boy wrote:
I didnt have access to the full article to look at it in detail
Nor did I. I was referencing some preliminary papers. But Willis Eschenbach has turned his attention to Nature Magazine’s Folie à Deux, Part Deux[^]. The problem is not computer models. The problem is Nature Magazine trying to pass off the end results of a long computer model daisy-chain of specifically selected, untested, unverified, un-investigated computer models as valid, falsifiable, peer-reviewed science.
2011 - Our best hope is that things will be frightening and dangerous rather than desperate and horrific. Jesse's Café Américain
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fat_boy wrote:
I didnt have access to the full article to look at it in detail
Nor did I. I was referencing some preliminary papers. But Willis Eschenbach has turned his attention to Nature Magazine’s Folie à Deux, Part Deux[^]. The problem is not computer models. The problem is Nature Magazine trying to pass off the end results of a long computer model daisy-chain of specifically selected, untested, unverified, un-investigated computer models as valid, falsifiable, peer-reviewed science.
2011 - Our best hope is that things will be frightening and dangerous rather than desperate and horrific. Jesse's Café Américain
"• The authors have conclusively shown that in a computer model of SW England and Wales, synthetic climate A is statistically more prone to synthetic floods than is synthetic climate B." :laugh: Good old WUWT!
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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Here it is raining today. Usually, at this time of years, it should freezing.
Le Gauchiste wrote:
"Le Gauchiste" - Formerly know as "Le Centriste"
Why this sudden radicalization? :)
When they kick at your front door How you gonna come? With your hands on your head Or on the trigger of your gun?
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Le Gauchiste wrote:
"Le Gauchiste" - Formerly know as "Le Centriste"
Why this sudden radicalization? :)
When they kick at your front door How you gonna come? With your hands on your head Or on the trigger of your gun?
Because everybody was calling me a leftist all the time, so I slowly transformed to a leftist :cool:
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Because everybody was calling me a leftist all the time, so I slowly transformed to a leftist :cool:
:-D
When they kick at your front door How you gonna come? With your hands on your head Or on the trigger of your gun?
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:-D
When they kick at your front door How you gonna come? With your hands on your head Or on the trigger of your gun?
lol
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:-D
When they kick at your front door How you gonna come? With your hands on your head Or on the trigger of your gun?
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My french is a bit rusty... "Comrade! The Revolution is about finished. Just give yourself a bayonette enema!" Is that close?
There is water at the bottom of the ocean. My Mu[sic] My Films My Windows Programs, etc.
I would rather translate like: "Comrade! The Revolution is at gunpoint, [it is] just between your bayonet and the heart of the Enemy"
When they kick at your front door How you gonna come? With your hands on your head Or on the trigger of your gun?