The Arctic could be ice free in 5-6 years time. `
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...and as it is in my freezer. :)
"I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by." (DNA)
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Back in 2007, Richard Abbot posted htis typical scare story. Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. [^] So, now its 4 years later and...
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
Well, for what it's worth, the minimum AMSR-E Sea Ice extent for each of 2008, 2009 and 2010 turned out to be greater than 2007. The 2011 maximum extent, however, less than that of 2007. Still time for it all to disappear, or for it grow, or for it to stay much the same. We shall just have to wait until the end of 2013 before we start questioning their model. (At which time, coincidentally, other modellers may be called to account if we have not experienced global warming greater than that of 1998. No problem, though: "Just 15 years of weather, nothing to do with climate change.")
2011 - Our best hope is that things will be frightening and dangerous rather than desperate and horrific. Jesse's Café Américain
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Back in 2007, Richard Abbot posted htis typical scare story. Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. [^] So, now its 4 years later and...
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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Back in 2007, Richard Abbot posted htis typical scare story. Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. [^] So, now its 4 years later and...
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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Sssh! Dont confuse the alarmists with facts! :)
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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Well, for what it's worth, the minimum AMSR-E Sea Ice extent for each of 2008, 2009 and 2010 turned out to be greater than 2007. The 2011 maximum extent, however, less than that of 2007. Still time for it all to disappear, or for it grow, or for it to stay much the same. We shall just have to wait until the end of 2013 before we start questioning their model. (At which time, coincidentally, other modellers may be called to account if we have not experienced global warming greater than that of 1998. No problem, though: "Just 15 years of weather, nothing to do with climate change.")
2011 - Our best hope is that things will be frightening and dangerous rather than desperate and horrific. Jesse's Café Américain
Well, its not so much 1998 as 1995 (As Dr Jones said to the BBC, there hasnt been any statisticall significant warming since then. Given UAH temperatures are plumting, any warming since then is getting less and less significant.) So thats what, 1975 - 1995, 1995 - 2013. 20 years of warming, 18 of not warming. (Of course 1940 - 1975 was a cooling period.) Not looking so convincing is it? :)
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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But do they have to do it at our expense?
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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Were you that bored that you were compelled to look that far back into CP history. Poor you. :laugh:
:) I was just looking at an old post and accidentally came across it. Given we are aproaching the date of the supposed calamity, I thought it interesting to reflect back on the statement, and the facts today. Of course we wil see more and more of these alarmists statements exposed for what they are as time passes. :)
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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But do they have to do it at our expense?
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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Be nice if they could do some usefull research though. I am all for protecting the environment and the planet, but perhaps they could devote themselves to developing new energy sources instead of coming up with silly scare stoires?
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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:) I was just looking at an old post and accidentally came across it. Given we are aproaching the date of the supposed calamity, I thought it interesting to reflect back on the statement, and the facts today. Of course we wil see more and more of these alarmists statements exposed for what they are as time passes. :)
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
As time marches forward, we learn and understand that much more than we previously did. And that can challenge accepted scientific theories, or place doubts on developing theories. Timescales in a chaotic system may never be as precise as we would like. And, we all are capable of producing alarmist statements that can mount to nothing more than hot air. :)
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As time marches forward, we learn and understand that much more than we previously did. And that can challenge accepted scientific theories, or place doubts on developing theories. Timescales in a chaotic system may never be as precise as we would like. And, we all are capable of producing alarmist statements that can mount to nothing more than hot air. :)
Indeed.
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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Sssh! Dont confuse the alarmists with facts! :)
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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He also said: "Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that." :)
"I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by." (DNA)
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I know a fact: I will get drunk before the last bit of ice melts.
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I know a fact: I will get drunk before the last bit of ice melts.
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(b)
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Back in 2007, Richard Abbot posted htis typical scare story. Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. [^] So, now its 4 years later and...
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman
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Yeah, its swinging around a fair bit. What I find interesting is that these swings, both up and down, in the last fe years, are equal to to the supposed rise in 100 years, 0.7 `C. So if CO2 is such a big player, just what the hell is it that can do the same thing 100 times quicker! It must be a REALLY big player, whcih kind of puts CO2 way in the back.
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip now due to mankind." Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, IPCC "It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you have, or how many of you here are, and certainly not how many papers your side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. Period." Professor Richard Feynman