Why is Murphy's law true?
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Given randomly distributed events happening at random times, it is much more likely that events (of any kind) get bunched together rather than occur at evenly spaced intervals. (It makes sense if you think about it, and it can be mathematically proven.) As humans we tend to apply patterns to randomness, thus "Murphy's Law" and endless superstitions. There is an astounding amount about life and existence that can be explained by understanding statistics. Alas, very few seem to grasp it. (I know, I'm no fun at all.)
Faith is a fine invention For gentlemen who see; But microscopes are prudent In an emergency! -Emily Dickinson
David Kentley wrote:
There is an astounding amount about life and existence that can be explained by understanding statistics
If your staistical analysis is about something reflecting "life and existence" (such as the distribution of random events) is that really so astounding? I'm tempted to say "Well I should hope so..." Still.. perhaps the reason "very few seem to grasp it" is because statistics are only as valid as the questions asked (measurements taken.) As Deep Thought pointed out (inter alia), the answer kind of depends on the question, and all too often an invalid or badly put question leads to less than useless answers (but repeated as gospel by fools) which pretty quickly turns people off the whole subject. Fred
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Gary Wheeler wrote:
Did it help?
one cup better... outlook is improving, there may be a correlation.... I decided to add a pop tart with the coffee to improve my mood also. Since Christina Aguilera wouldn't answer her phone, I had the Kelloggs variety instead. ;P
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
El Corazon wrote:
a pop tart ... Since Christina Aguilera wouldn't answer her phone
:rolleyes: Caffeine, sugar, saturated fats. Great way to start the day :-D... Like I should talk. I had a glazed blueberry cake donut after I got to work this morning (this was in addition to my normal bowl of cereal at home) :sigh:.
Software Zen:
delete this; -
Because it is. It's like the start of the universe, if it wasn't true, then it would shortly become true because of itself. This may be how the universe started - things were probably better when it wasn't here...
Damn :omg:. Who peed in your oatmeal this morning?
Software Zen:
delete this; -
David Kentley wrote:
Given randomly distributed events happening at random times
Naw, I think it has to do with Thermodynamics. Just think of the three laws: 1) You can't win. 2) You must loose lose. 3) You have to play the game. Physics! it's what's for breakfast today... mmmm speaking of thermodynamics.... mmmmm roasted coffee beans ground and water filtered through.... -- modified at 11:27 Tuesday 23rd October, 2007
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
El Corazon wrote:
- You must loose.
- You must always misspell "lose" on a public board. 4a) You must always mix up "they're" and "their" as well.
Please don't bother me... I'm hacking right now. Don't look at me like that - doesn't anybody remember what "hacking" really means? :sigh:
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El Corazon wrote:
a pop tart ... Since Christina Aguilera wouldn't answer her phone
:rolleyes: Caffeine, sugar, saturated fats. Great way to start the day :-D... Like I should talk. I had a glazed blueberry cake donut after I got to work this morning (this was in addition to my normal bowl of cereal at home) :sigh:.
Software Zen:
delete this;Gary Wheeler wrote:
Great way to start the day
well, I had dried appricots and a yogurt too. The pop tart was a last minute thing. I thought about a bear claw, but the pun wasn't nearly as entertaining.
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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El Corazon wrote:
- You must loose.
- You must always misspell "lose" on a public board. 4a) You must always mix up "they're" and "their" as well.
Please don't bother me... I'm hacking right now. Don't look at me like that - doesn't anybody remember what "hacking" really means? :sigh:
Robert Royall wrote:
You must always misspell "lose" on a public board.
As I always say... that is why they pay someone a fraction of my wage to edit my whitepapers. ;) I fully admit my spelling disadvantage, I graduated from the NM public school system, graduated 12th in a class of approx 265, and graduated with a 6th grade national equivalent spelling ability. I improve daily, but I am far from perfect. :)
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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David Kentley wrote:
There is an astounding amount about life and existence that can be explained by understanding statistics
If your staistical analysis is about something reflecting "life and existence" (such as the distribution of random events) is that really so astounding? I'm tempted to say "Well I should hope so..." Still.. perhaps the reason "very few seem to grasp it" is because statistics are only as valid as the questions asked (measurements taken.) As Deep Thought pointed out (inter alia), the answer kind of depends on the question, and all too often an invalid or badly put question leads to less than useless answers (but repeated as gospel by fools) which pretty quickly turns people off the whole subject. Fred
What amazes me is how few people realize the Wowbanger The Infinitely Prolonged had the question all along, "What to do with the long dark tea time of the soul?". His answer, to insult every living organism in the space time continuum in alphabetical order, didn't work. IMO Deep Thought's answer of For Tea Two was entirely correct and as independent of the question, while being aposite, as you could hope for, even with several million years of thought. Which only goes to show that if you couldn't beat the odds occasionally then they would be very odd indeed.
Nothing is exactly what it seems but everything with seems can be unpicked.
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Damn :omg:. Who peed in your oatmeal this morning?
Software Zen:
delete this;errr... ummmmm... sorry... I had too much coffee too fast this morning?
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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Damn :omg:. Who peed in your oatmeal this morning?
Software Zen:
delete this;I'd like to say nobody, but due to murphy's law, this probably isn't the case...
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Gary Wheeler wrote:
Did it help?
one cup better... outlook is improving, there may be a correlation.... I decided to add a pop tart with the coffee to improve my mood also. Since Christina Aguilera wouldn't answer her phone, I had the Kelloggs variety instead. ;P
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
El Corazon wrote:
I decided to add a pop tart with the coffee to improve my mood also. Since Christina Aguilera wouldn't answer her phone
I hear Paris Hilton is good with ice... :)
¡El diablo está en mis pantalones! ¡Mire, mire! Real Mentats use only 100% pure, unfooled around with Sapho Juice(tm)! SELECT * FROM User WHERE Clue > 0 0 rows returned Save an Orange - Use the VCF! VCF Blog
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Have you ever stopped to ponder the laws of chaos? I thought about it today. Sure I was tired, and that explains why I made too much noise getting up this morning, and woke my wife (many times). But also on the same day that one of the fire-alarms, INSIDE my step-son's room (why THAT one of all the ones in the house????) decided to start beeping every minute asking for a battery as I scramble to find one before it wakes him up, as it already had my wife (and then my noise kept her awake). On the same day they increase road construction and slow down traffic, on the same day a cold front moved in and HEL froze over. On the same day we have an increased number of tours, on the same day we found out our dead hard-drive (on an important machine) has to be re-ordered because purchasing "lost" the purchase request, on the same day that we need to use that machine, on the same day a florescent light over my desk is feeling a little "disco", and on the same day a fan went out on one of my computers... and the list just goes on. Do deadlines, problems and VIPs congregate to each other? Do they seek each other out deliberately like some perverse sadistic story? Is every day really bad, but we gloss over the bad parts because we are in a good mood already? If the latter, then are good days really bad, and what does that say about the universe? Maybe the laws of chaos are all just a sign of a lack of coffee... At least that is solvable.... I think I will try that....
"You know, I used to think it was awful that life was so unfair. Then I thought, wouldn't it be much worse if life were fair and all the terrible things that happen to us come because we actually deserve them. So now I take great comfort in the general hostility and unfairness of the universe." - Marcus Cole_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
El Corazon wrote:
Do deadlines, problems and VIPs congregate to each other? Do they seek each other out deliberately like some perverse sadistic story? Is every day really bad, but we gloss over the bad parts because we are in a good mood already?
Yes, yes, and yes.
El Corazon wrote:
"You know, I used to think it was awful that life was so unfair. Then I thought, wouldn't it be much worse if life were fair and all the terrible things that happen to us come because we actually deserve them. So now I take great comfort in the general hostility and unfairness of the universe." - Marcus Cole
I absolutely love that quote. Oh for the days of shows like Babylon 5..
"If you think of yourselves as helpless and ineffectual, it is certain that you will create a despotic government to be your master. The wise despot, therefore, maintains among his subjects a popular sense that they are helpless and ineffectual." - Frank Herbert
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El Corazon wrote:
Do deadlines, problems and VIPs congregate to each other? Do they seek each other out deliberately like some perverse sadistic story? Is every day really bad, but we gloss over the bad parts because we are in a good mood already?
Yes, yes, and yes.
El Corazon wrote:
"You know, I used to think it was awful that life was so unfair. Then I thought, wouldn't it be much worse if life were fair and all the terrible things that happen to us come because we actually deserve them. So now I take great comfort in the general hostility and unfairness of the universe." - Marcus Cole
I absolutely love that quote. Oh for the days of shows like Babylon 5..
"If you think of yourselves as helpless and ineffectual, it is certain that you will create a despotic government to be your master. The wise despot, therefore, maintains among his subjects a popular sense that they are helpless and ineffectual." - Frank Herbert
Patrick Sears wrote:
Oh for the days of shows like Babylon 5
The best series on television in my lifetime bar none. The only series I've shelled out for the entire DVD collection.:-D
Nothing is exactly what it seems but everything with seems can be unpicked.
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El Corazon wrote:
I decided to add a pop tart with the coffee to improve my mood also. Since Christina Aguilera wouldn't answer her phone
I hear Paris Hilton is good with ice... :)
¡El diablo está en mis pantalones! ¡Mire, mire! Real Mentats use only 100% pure, unfooled around with Sapho Juice(tm)! SELECT * FROM User WHERE Clue > 0 0 rows returned Save an Orange - Use the VCF! VCF Blog
Jim Crafton wrote:
I hear Paris Hilton is good with ice...
pop TART, not pop TWIT, those middle letters matter a lot.
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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Patrick Sears wrote:
Oh for the days of shows like Babylon 5
The best series on television in my lifetime bar none. The only series I've shelled out for the entire DVD collection.:-D
Nothing is exactly what it seems but everything with seems can be unpicked.
Matthew Faithfull wrote:
The only series I've shelled out for the entire DVD collection.
and will be for me too, but unfortunately it is not high enough on my list. I should push it higher.
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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Jim Crafton wrote:
I hear Paris Hilton is good with ice...
pop TART, not pop TWIT, those middle letters matter a lot.
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
Oh sorry, I'd forgotten how intellectually stimulating Christina Aguilera's conversation was :) Oh yeah, and her music, yeah, that's top notch stuff :)
¡El diablo está en mis pantalones! ¡Mire, mire! Real Mentats use only 100% pure, unfooled around with Sapho Juice(tm)! SELECT * FROM User WHERE Clue > 0 0 rows returned Save an Orange - Use the VCF! VCF Blog
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Have you ever stopped to ponder the laws of chaos? I thought about it today. Sure I was tired, and that explains why I made too much noise getting up this morning, and woke my wife (many times). But also on the same day that one of the fire-alarms, INSIDE my step-son's room (why THAT one of all the ones in the house????) decided to start beeping every minute asking for a battery as I scramble to find one before it wakes him up, as it already had my wife (and then my noise kept her awake). On the same day they increase road construction and slow down traffic, on the same day a cold front moved in and HEL froze over. On the same day we have an increased number of tours, on the same day we found out our dead hard-drive (on an important machine) has to be re-ordered because purchasing "lost" the purchase request, on the same day that we need to use that machine, on the same day a florescent light over my desk is feeling a little "disco", and on the same day a fan went out on one of my computers... and the list just goes on. Do deadlines, problems and VIPs congregate to each other? Do they seek each other out deliberately like some perverse sadistic story? Is every day really bad, but we gloss over the bad parts because we are in a good mood already? If the latter, then are good days really bad, and what does that say about the universe? Maybe the laws of chaos are all just a sign of a lack of coffee... At least that is solvable.... I think I will try that....
"You know, I used to think it was awful that life was so unfair. Then I thought, wouldn't it be much worse if life were fair and all the terrible things that happen to us come because we actually deserve them. So now I take great comfort in the general hostility and unfairness of the universe." - Marcus Cole_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
El Corazon wrote:
Have you ever stopped to ponder the laws of chaos? I thought about it today.
So did I. I really needed to catch up a lot today, having been a bit slow on Monday[1]. I attempted to drag myself out of bed at 5:30 this morning, and wrote that off against being more productive if I slept until 8:30. I had one of the longest, nicest lie in naps in recent history. It felt like I woke up at 11:00 or so, but I was out of the house at 9:00, but then everything seemed to be moving slowly. Traffic is normally clear by then, but even light traffic was moving very slowly. It felt like the usual 20 minute trip to work took an hour. Then I realised, I had been fortunate enough to wake up into a 'slow time' day. I have pumped out tons of code corrections and additions, because I had 'more time'. Only chaos laws could explain this. On the positive side, that is.
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Given randomly distributed events happening at random times, it is much more likely that events (of any kind) get bunched together rather than occur at evenly spaced intervals. (It makes sense if you think about it, and it can be mathematically proven.) As humans we tend to apply patterns to randomness, thus "Murphy's Law" and endless superstitions. There is an astounding amount about life and existence that can be explained by understanding statistics. Alas, very few seem to grasp it. (I know, I'm no fun at all.)
Faith is a fine invention For gentlemen who see; But microscopes are prudent In an emergency! -Emily Dickinson
Au contraire! Stats is much more fascinating, even to someone of my very limited understanding, than expecting regularity in everything.
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El Corazon wrote:
Have you ever stopped to ponder the laws of chaos? I thought about it today.
So did I. I really needed to catch up a lot today, having been a bit slow on Monday[1]. I attempted to drag myself out of bed at 5:30 this morning, and wrote that off against being more productive if I slept until 8:30. I had one of the longest, nicest lie in naps in recent history. It felt like I woke up at 11:00 or so, but I was out of the house at 9:00, but then everything seemed to be moving slowly. Traffic is normally clear by then, but even light traffic was moving very slowly. It felt like the usual 20 minute trip to work took an hour. Then I realised, I had been fortunate enough to wake up into a 'slow time' day. I have pumped out tons of code corrections and additions, because I had 'more time'. Only chaos laws could explain this. On the positive side, that is.
Brady Kelly wrote:
Then I realised, I had been fortunate enough to wake up into a 'slow time' day. I have pumped out tons of code corrections and additions, because I had 'more time'. Only chaos laws could explain this. On the positive side, that is.
so what you are saying is that YOU took my balance of time giving you an excess? Give it back! ;P you can have a pop tart!
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
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Patrick Sears wrote:
Oh for the days of shows like Babylon 5
The best series on television in my lifetime bar none. The only series I've shelled out for the entire DVD collection.:-D
Nothing is exactly what it seems but everything with seems can be unpicked.
Matthew Faithfull wrote:
The best series on television in my lifetime bar none. The only series I've shelled out for the entire DVD collection.
Absolutely. Same here! It's the only TV *anything* for which I have all the episodes and all the tv movies on DVD.
"If you think of yourselves as helpless and ineffectual, it is certain that you will create a despotic government to be your master. The wise despot, therefore, maintains among his subjects a popular sense that they are helpless and ineffectual." - Frank Herbert
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Brady Kelly wrote:
Then I realised, I had been fortunate enough to wake up into a 'slow time' day. I have pumped out tons of code corrections and additions, because I had 'more time'. Only chaos laws could explain this. On the positive side, that is.
so what you are saying is that YOU took my balance of time giving you an excess? Give it back! ;P you can have a pop tart!
_________________________ Asu no koto o ieba, tenjo de nezumi ga warau. Talk about things of tomorrow and the mice in the ceiling laugh. (Japanese Proverb)
Try going to your database and hitting the "refund" button. That's where all my time seems to go. :laugh: