Is this crisis almost the end of the US?
-
Oakman wrote:
I don't think Fat_Boy has ever forgiven the US for Gore's winning the Nobel prize
LEAVING THE EMPIRE!
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
modified on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 8:37 AM
We'll come back if you'll agree to pay off our debts...;P
-
We'll come back if you'll agree to pay off our debts...;P
-
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
Area 51 is a ruse. I'm somewhere behind a secret door in the Gotthard tunnel with all the other Gnomes.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
Ohh, we know where you are - trust me, we know all about you. Paranoid? You'd better be...:suss:
-
As a young teenager, your parents should be able to protect you from the worst of the present ravages. So hopefully by the time you turn adult the matter should be history. But learn from history. When you become an adult do ... Don't spend what you don't own. Don't buy on credit unless it is an affordable mortgage. Save what you can. Invest in a Pensions scheme for your old age (yep I know it is a very long way off but you need to think about it sooner rather than later).
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
As a young teenager, your parents should be able to protect you from the worst of the present ravages.
Protection? Ha! I don't need protection, I AM INVINCIBLE!
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Don't spend what you don't own. Don't buy on credit unless it is an affordable mortgage. Save what you can. Invest in a Pensions scheme for your old age (yep I know it is a very long way off but you need to think about it sooner rather than later).
OK, I'll remember that. And I have a pretty good memory, believe me. :-\
-
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
US stock market meltdown -> leading to other stock market meltdowns, people and firms around the world holds investment in US market -> bankrupcy all around the world in financial firms -> people lose all their money in countries where their bank savings are not insured by the government -> poor and angry people -> recruited by terrorist -> !!!?
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
Extracting the oil from ANWR won't tangibly affect the price of oil.
The more isolated the US is it will, but not for us, just for the US. The rest of the world would probably switch to Rubels or Euros to sell oil.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
The estimates are about 10 billion barrels, that's a shit in the bucket. The volume is less than a fraction of a percent of global consumption. How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed? All OPEC would have to do is just cut back on production and cancel any potential price effect; if there was any ... and if there was it would probably be only cents on the dollar. A few cents on $100 per barrel is not even crumbs.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
-
The estimates are about 10 billion barrels, that's a shit in the bucket. The volume is less than a fraction of a percent of global consumption. How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed? All OPEC would have to do is just cut back on production and cancel any potential price effect; if there was any ... and if there was it would probably be only cents on the dollar. A few cents on $100 per barrel is not even crumbs.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed?
I didnt. The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it. Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
-
An economy based on easy borrowing and cunsumer consumption which is not a producer: Can it suffer such a shock as this? And how to get out of the chaos? Does this mean tighter lending, onshoring manufacturing, comsuming only home produced goods and massively weakening the dollar? People have been saying for decades the US is bankrupt. Is this the rekoning?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
No. I've see this plenty of times before. Now is a really good time to buy stock in the DOW or S&P 500. Also, buy 3-4 houses if you can. Then just ride it out.
fat_boy wrote:
People have been saying for decades the US is bankrupt
Really? I remember not too long ago when Clinton wiped out the deficit.
My Blog: http://cynicalclots.blogspot.com
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed?
I didnt. The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it. Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it.
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
fat_boy wrote:
Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
-
fat_boy wrote:
Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US.
:laugh: Then why is my desk currently full of requests to determine potential exposures to Lehman debt? These are generally followed up by questions asking: if we are exposed, what's the current "fair price". Unfortunately, I can't answer the latter question and the first question is also busting my ass.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
-
fat_boy wrote:
The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it.
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
fat_boy wrote:
Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
Now you are repeating me.
73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
Of course it will be. And the EU couldnt stop it.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
-
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Arguably, the United States, and consequently, the "free" world, is in recession
only if you change the definition of the word, "recession" - from 2 quarters of negative growth to something that matches what took place yesterday and will probably take place today.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
I understand your words. However, taken from[^] ... [quote] The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis had significantly contributed to anticipation of a possible recession. U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession.". On April 29, 2008, nine US states were declared by Moody to be in a recession. Although the US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession. [/quote]
-
Of course, you are right and everyone else wrong, including all the experts I have been listening to on CNBC for the last two days. Jerk.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
Of course, you are right and everyone else wrong, including all the experts I have been listening to on CNBC for the last two days. Jerk.
Asshole. How come other investment banks like Generali, Axa and others are also reporting exposure then, some in the +100 to several hundred million range? While you're at it you fucking smart ass, tell me why my desk is filled with requests to meet reporters' questions about exposures to Lehman if it's only U.S. banks?
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
Now you are repeating me.
73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
Of course it will be. And the EU couldnt stop it.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
Now you are repeating me.
Oh? Where did you type that?
fat_boy wrote:
Of course it will be. And the EU couldnt stop it.
Okay then, WHY AND HOW will the ECB allow the Euro to inflate to the point that it's at 4-5 Eurodollars per U.S. dollar? I gotta hear this...
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
-
fat_boy wrote:
Of course, you are right and everyone else wrong, including all the experts I have been listening to on CNBC for the last two days. Jerk.
Asshole. How come other investment banks like Generali, Axa and others are also reporting exposure then, some in the +100 to several hundred million range? While you're at it you fucking smart ass, tell me why my desk is filled with requests to meet reporters' questions about exposures to Lehman if it's only U.S. banks?
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
You just dont read do you. You make assumptions about what people have read based on your current emotional need to show your imagined superiority. Whats it like being mentally warped with the emotional response of a 12 year old?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
-
fat_boy wrote:
Now you are repeating me.
Oh? Where did you type that?
fat_boy wrote:
Of course it will be. And the EU couldnt stop it.
Okay then, WHY AND HOW will the ECB allow the Euro to inflate to the point that it's at 4-5 Eurodollars per U.S. dollar? I gotta hear this...
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Oh? Where did you type that?
Go up about 6 posts and re-read what I wrote about the US having to reduce its need fort oil and swithch as much of that need to home produced oil. Did the ECB stop the dollar weakening from 130 to 160? If Greenspan or whoever runs the FED turns on the presses the ECB can do nothing but sit back and watch. --- modified--- Oh yeah, I know greenapsn retired a few years back or so and the bug is now called Bebanke or some such so please dont pick on this as the weak part of my post. Try to give it some thought.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
-
You just dont read do you. You make assumptions about what people have read based on your current emotional need to show your imagined superiority. Whats it like being mentally warped with the emotional response of a 12 year old?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
You just dont read do you. You make assumptions about what people have read based on your current emotional need to show your imagined superiority. Whats it like being mentally warped with the emotional response of a 12 year old?
You claimed European banks weren't exposed to Lehman debt. This is what you wrote: Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US. I'm telling you there are several European banks that have already reported multiple hundreds of millions of dollars of exposure to Lehman. With a team of other asset specialists I've also been assessing the exposure of the bank I work for and it's substantial. How you figure Europe isn't exposed to Lehman's collapse is beyond me.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
-
fat_boy wrote:
You just dont read do you. You make assumptions about what people have read based on your current emotional need to show your imagined superiority. Whats it like being mentally warped with the emotional response of a 12 year old?
You claimed European banks weren't exposed to Lehman debt. This is what you wrote: Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US. I'm telling you there are several European banks that have already reported multiple hundreds of millions of dollars of exposure to Lehman. With a team of other asset specialists I've also been assessing the exposure of the bank I work for and it's substantial. How you figure Europe isn't exposed to Lehman's collapse is beyond me.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
To quote me: "I do not feel that Europe for example will be anywhere as nerly badly affected as the US and UK" and my other quote is the same " are no where as exposed as those in the US". Yes, SG wrote off 8 billion a few months back, but they havent colapsed, or had to be bought out by the French Government have they? Same for many others. HSBC wrote a load off, but its stock proce didnt collapse yesterday, it only dropped by percent or so. I am not saying its not going to have an impact here, but in the US, its going to be, and already hase been, ugly and the impact on their economy is going to be bigger, and last longer, then its impact on ours.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
-
73Zeppelin wrote:
Oh? Where did you type that?
Go up about 6 posts and re-read what I wrote about the US having to reduce its need fort oil and swithch as much of that need to home produced oil. Did the ECB stop the dollar weakening from 130 to 160? If Greenspan or whoever runs the FED turns on the presses the ECB can do nothing but sit back and watch. --- modified--- Oh yeah, I know greenapsn retired a few years back or so and the bug is now called Bebanke or some such so please dont pick on this as the weak part of my post. Try to give it some thought.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
I'm sorry, none of this makes sense. Why would the U.S. just start printing out fiat when there's already economic slow down. Do you know how much they'd have to print to cause the U.S. dollar to drop to 4 or 5 USD per Euro? It's ridiculous and the inflation would be way off target - you'd end up with hyperinflation. It wouldn't even be good for the EU - exports would plummet and the European economy would collapse. I don't see where you're going with this at all. This would never happen unless there were some outrageous form of deliberate economic sabotage.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
-
To quote me: "I do not feel that Europe for example will be anywhere as nerly badly affected as the US and UK" and my other quote is the same " are no where as exposed as those in the US". Yes, SG wrote off 8 billion a few months back, but they havent colapsed, or had to be bought out by the French Government have they? Same for many others. HSBC wrote a load off, but its stock proce didnt collapse yesterday, it only dropped by percent or so. I am not saying its not going to have an impact here, but in the US, its going to be, and already hase been, ugly and the impact on their economy is going to be bigger, and last longer, then its impact on ours.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
To quote me: "I do not feel that Europe for example will be anywhere as nerly badly affected as the US and UK" and my other quote is the same " are no where as exposed as those in the US". Yes, SG wrote off 8 billion a few months back, but they havent colapsed, or had to be bought out by the French Government have they? Same for many others. HSBC wrote a load off, but its stock proce didnt collapse yesterday, it only dropped by percent or so. I am not saying its not going to have an impact here, but in the US, its going to be, and already hase been, ugly and the impact on their economy is going to be bigger, and last longer, then its impact on ours.
Lehman's debt load is currently estimated at 631 billion. Compared to Soc-Gen, that's tremendous. It's almost unbelievable that it was allowed to get to that level. The reason it got there is due to a lack of oversight of investment banking activities as well as the incompetence of the upper management. The impact from the fallout will most likely take the form of sweeping investment banking reforms and, quite possibly, an insistence that investment and deposit banking be kept together instead of allowing monoline investment banks to exist. One reason that the financials haven't been harder hit is that the full scope of exposure to Lehman probably won't be known until all the positions are unwound and that could conceivably take months. Fine. I also over-reacted. Sorry.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.