Is this crisis almost the end of the US?
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Mumbai has been hit, Brazil by 11%. But fundamentally this is an investment bank problem caused by bad debt in turn caused by easy borrowing. Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US.
:laugh: Then why is my desk currently full of requests to determine potential exposures to Lehman debt? These are generally followed up by questions asking: if we are exposed, what's the current "fair price". Unfortunately, I can't answer the latter question and the first question is also busting my ass.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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fat_boy wrote:
Does this mean tighter lending, onshoring manufacturing, comsuming only home produced good
I hope so - along with a cancellation of our commitment to NATO, ANZUS and the UN, reneging on the ridiculous amounts of foreign aid being poured into Africa and declaring illegal aliens as being uncovered by any American law.
fat_boy wrote:
massively weakening the dollar
Already happened. Thats why the US is selling so much more to Europe these days.
fat_boy wrote:
People have been saying for decades the US is bankrupt.
You aren't under the impression that France, England, Germany or Italy are in a different boat, are you? Most of the western democracies learned how to vote themselves into a funny-money economy at just about the same time. I can't escape the feeling that you are gleeful about the present economic crisis as if you think that somehow Europe will be able to stand if the US drops to her knees.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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73Zeppelin wrote:
Excellent. Where do you live?
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
Area 51 is a ruse. I'm somewhere behind a secret door in the Gotthard tunnel with all the other Gnomes.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
US stock market meltdown -> leading to other stock market meltdowns, people and firms around the world holds investment in US market -> bankrupcy all around the world in financial firms -> people lose all their money in countries where their bank savings are not insured by the government -> poor and angry people -> recruited by terrorist -> !!!?
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fat_boy wrote:
his is one of the reasons the US has to get of oil or open up oil fields in Alaska and thr Arctic. IF it does this, it can let the dollar run to 4 or 5 to the euro
Just what do you smoke and when do you find time to smoke it? Extracting the oil from ANWR won't tangibly affect the price of oil.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Extracting the oil from ANWR won't tangibly affect the price of oil.
The more isolated the US is it will, but not for us, just for the US. The rest of the world would probably switch to Rubels or Euros to sell oil.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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Oakman wrote:
I don't think Fat_Boy has ever forgiven the US for Gore's winning the Nobel prize
LEAVING THE EMPIRE!
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
modified on Tuesday, September 16, 2008 8:37 AM
We'll come back if you'll agree to pay off our debts...;P
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We'll come back if you'll agree to pay off our debts...;P
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Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Area 51. Look outside, I'm waving to you right now.
Area 51 is a ruse. I'm somewhere behind a secret door in the Gotthard tunnel with all the other Gnomes.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
Ohh, we know where you are - trust me, we know all about you. Paranoid? You'd better be...:suss:
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As a young teenager, your parents should be able to protect you from the worst of the present ravages. So hopefully by the time you turn adult the matter should be history. But learn from history. When you become an adult do ... Don't spend what you don't own. Don't buy on credit unless it is an affordable mortgage. Save what you can. Invest in a Pensions scheme for your old age (yep I know it is a very long way off but you need to think about it sooner rather than later).
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
As a young teenager, your parents should be able to protect you from the worst of the present ravages.
Protection? Ha! I don't need protection, I AM INVINCIBLE!
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Don't spend what you don't own. Don't buy on credit unless it is an affordable mortgage. Save what you can. Invest in a Pensions scheme for your old age (yep I know it is a very long way off but you need to think about it sooner rather than later).
OK, I'll remember that. And I have a pretty good memory, believe me. :-\
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Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
US stock market meltdown -> leading to other stock market meltdowns, people and firms around the world holds investment in US market -> bankrupcy all around the world in financial firms -> people lose all their money in countries where their bank savings are not insured by the government -> poor and angry people -> recruited by terrorist -> !!!?
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73Zeppelin wrote:
Extracting the oil from ANWR won't tangibly affect the price of oil.
The more isolated the US is it will, but not for us, just for the US. The rest of the world would probably switch to Rubels or Euros to sell oil.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
The estimates are about 10 billion barrels, that's a shit in the bucket. The volume is less than a fraction of a percent of global consumption. How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed? All OPEC would have to do is just cut back on production and cancel any potential price effect; if there was any ... and if there was it would probably be only cents on the dollar. A few cents on $100 per barrel is not even crumbs.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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The estimates are about 10 billion barrels, that's a shit in the bucket. The volume is less than a fraction of a percent of global consumption. How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed? All OPEC would have to do is just cut back on production and cancel any potential price effect; if there was any ... and if there was it would probably be only cents on the dollar. A few cents on $100 per barrel is not even crumbs.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed?
I didnt. The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it. Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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An economy based on easy borrowing and cunsumer consumption which is not a producer: Can it suffer such a shock as this? And how to get out of the chaos? Does this mean tighter lending, onshoring manufacturing, comsuming only home produced goods and massively weakening the dollar? People have been saying for decades the US is bankrupt. Is this the rekoning?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
No. I've see this plenty of times before. Now is a really good time to buy stock in the DOW or S&P 500. Also, buy 3-4 houses if you can. Then just ride it out.
fat_boy wrote:
People have been saying for decades the US is bankrupt
Really? I remember not too long ago when Clinton wiped out the deficit.
My Blog: http://cynicalclots.blogspot.com
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73Zeppelin wrote:
How do you figure that will cause OPEC to be alarmed?
I didnt. The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it. Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it.
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
fat_boy wrote:
Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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fat_boy wrote:
Continental Europe, although their banks have bought some of this debt, are no where as exposed as those in the US.
:laugh: Then why is my desk currently full of requests to determine potential exposures to Lehman debt? These are generally followed up by questions asking: if we are exposed, what's the current "fair price". Unfortunately, I can't answer the latter question and the first question is also busting my ass.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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fat_boy wrote:
The point is that if the US weakens its currency intentionally it will have to have a home based source of ol or, use less of it.
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
fat_boy wrote:
Since it has already done this to a certain extent, and I am sure we wil see more of it, you wlll see my words justified by future events.
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
Now you are repeating me.
73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
Of course it will be. And the EU couldnt stop it.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Arguably, the United States, and consequently, the "free" world, is in recession
only if you change the definition of the word, "recession" - from 2 quarters of negative growth to something that matches what took place yesterday and will probably take place today.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
I understand your words. However, taken from[^] ... [quote] The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis had significantly contributed to anticipation of a possible recession. U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008, the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession.". On April 29, 2008, nine US states were declared by Moody to be in a recession. Although the US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%, by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession. [/quote]
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Of course, you are right and everyone else wrong, including all the experts I have been listening to on CNBC for the last two days. Jerk.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
Of course, you are right and everyone else wrong, including all the experts I have been listening to on CNBC for the last two days. Jerk.
Asshole. How come other investment banks like Generali, Axa and others are also reporting exposure then, some in the +100 to several hundred million range? While you're at it you fucking smart ass, tell me why my desk is filled with requests to meet reporters' questions about exposures to Lehman if it's only U.S. banks?
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. needs to reduce its dependence on foreign AND domestic oil - for environmental and political reasons. It's 19th century technology.
Now you are repeating me.
73Zeppelin wrote:
The U.S. dollar will never be 4 or 5 to the Euro. Even the EU won't allow that to happen.
Of course it will be. And the EU couldnt stop it.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
Now you are repeating me.
Oh? Where did you type that?
fat_boy wrote:
Of course it will be. And the EU couldnt stop it.
Okay then, WHY AND HOW will the ECB allow the Euro to inflate to the point that it's at 4-5 Eurodollars per U.S. dollar? I gotta hear this...
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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fat_boy wrote:
Of course, you are right and everyone else wrong, including all the experts I have been listening to on CNBC for the last two days. Jerk.
Asshole. How come other investment banks like Generali, Axa and others are also reporting exposure then, some in the +100 to several hundred million range? While you're at it you fucking smart ass, tell me why my desk is filled with requests to meet reporters' questions about exposures to Lehman if it's only U.S. banks?
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
You just dont read do you. You make assumptions about what people have read based on your current emotional need to show your imagined superiority. Whats it like being mentally warped with the emotional response of a 12 year old?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription