Is this crisis almost the end of the US?
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fat_boy wrote:
To quote me: "I do not feel that Europe for example will be anywhere as nerly badly affected as the US and UK" and my other quote is the same " are no where as exposed as those in the US". Yes, SG wrote off 8 billion a few months back, but they havent colapsed, or had to be bought out by the French Government have they? Same for many others. HSBC wrote a load off, but its stock proce didnt collapse yesterday, it only dropped by percent or so. I am not saying its not going to have an impact here, but in the US, its going to be, and already hase been, ugly and the impact on their economy is going to be bigger, and last longer, then its impact on ours.
Lehman's debt load is currently estimated at 631 billion. Compared to Soc-Gen, that's tremendous. It's almost unbelievable that it was allowed to get to that level. The reason it got there is due to a lack of oversight of investment banking activities as well as the incompetence of the upper management. The impact from the fallout will most likely take the form of sweeping investment banking reforms and, quite possibly, an insistence that investment and deposit banking be kept together instead of allowing monoline investment banks to exist. One reason that the financials haven't been harder hit is that the full scope of exposure to Lehman probably won't be known until all the positions are unwound and that could conceivably take months. Fine. I also over-reacted. Sorry.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Compared to Soc-Gen, that's tremen
Now you ARE repeating me.
73Zeppelin wrote:
almost unbelievable that it was allowed to get to that level
Lack of control of borrowing. Its endemic in those systems, its how they function. In Continentasl Europe borrowing is regulated, as I am sure you know at a personal level, and I wouldnt be surprosed at the level of investement baks aswell. As you say this kind of control is gong to have come into the US system too. And, I agree, the full extent of this will take a long time to discover. Probably meaning another 8 billion loss for SG.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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dan neely wrote:
Only if you view tinfoil as the height of fashion
I don't think Fat_Boy has ever forgiven the US for Gore's winning the Nobel prize.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
Well somebody deserves some serious blame for that... Just don't know that it's the fault of the US, I mean we don't really blame Canada for Celine Dion. If we can saddle somebody with blame for Gore, who gets it for Araphat's Nobel prize?
Visit BoneSoft.com for code generation tools (XML & XSD -> C#, VB, etc...) and some free developer tools as well.
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John, how much of an impact do you presume an interest rate cut by the Feds would have in the present situation, and will it be enough to calm the situation. http://www.marketwatch.com/[^] and now this http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a1BDNEUcpB4E&refer=news[^]
Last modified: 4mins after originally posted --
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
John, how much of an impact do you presume an interest rate cut by the Feds would have in the present situation, and will it be enough to calm the situation.
Ooof. Hard to say. I really don't expect the Fed to cut rates, but I could be wrong. If they do cut the rates, I don't expect it will do much for the financial sector stock - it may aid drops in other sectors like technology, etc... I think the markets are going to be quivery until the full extent of Lehman's collapse is known. I'm actually surprised there wasn't a larger scale fall-out. Added: I mean cutting rates isn't a panacea. You can't expect the Fed to cut rates everytime a crisis occurs. At some point there will be no more rate to cut, then what do you do? I think the markets need a lesson and it's best taught with some hard times. It will be a hard, but necessary, lesson.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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I'm sorry, none of this makes sense. Why would the U.S. just start printing out fiat when there's already economic slow down. Do you know how much they'd have to print to cause the U.S. dollar to drop to 4 or 5 USD per Euro? It's ridiculous and the inflation would be way off target - you'd end up with hyperinflation. It wouldn't even be good for the EU - exports would plummet and the European economy would collapse. I don't see where you're going with this at all. This would never happen unless there were some outrageous form of deliberate economic sabotage.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
I'm sorry, none of this makes sense. Why would the U.S. just start printing out fiat when there's already economic slow down
As you know they have stared down this road already. The question is how far do they go. But dont forget too that the dollar is also being devalued against the euro because many countries have sold large parts of their dollar reserves for euros. If oil ever got sold in euros we wold see the dollar slide off the plate.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
John, how much of an impact do you presume an interest rate cut by the Feds would have in the present situation, and will it be enough to calm the situation.
Ooof. Hard to say. I really don't expect the Fed to cut rates, but I could be wrong. If they do cut the rates, I don't expect it will do much for the financial sector stock - it may aid drops in other sectors like technology, etc... I think the markets are going to be quivery until the full extent of Lehman's collapse is known. I'm actually surprised there wasn't a larger scale fall-out. Added: I mean cutting rates isn't a panacea. You can't expect the Fed to cut rates everytime a crisis occurs. At some point there will be no more rate to cut, then what do you do? I think the markets need a lesson and it's best taught with some hard times. It will be a hard, but necessary, lesson.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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AIG looks like it could be a bigger problem than Leyman should they fail to get the finance they need.
I agree. If AIG fails, I think there will be a disaster. Probably more reason not to cut rates right now...
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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Well somebody deserves some serious blame for that... Just don't know that it's the fault of the US, I mean we don't really blame Canada for Celine Dion. If we can saddle somebody with blame for Gore, who gets it for Araphat's Nobel prize?
Visit BoneSoft.com for code generation tools (XML & XSD -> C#, VB, etc...) and some free developer tools as well.
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Dirk Higbee wrote:
Also, buy 3-4 houses if you can. Then just ride it out.
I have been buying 3-4 houses a month for the last 3 months. But it's really not that simple; I've been having the sellers fiance them to me. First, this doesn't hit my credit and second, it allows me to re-sell them with seller financing. When interest rates start to move up like they were in the 80's seller financing will be the absolute best way to move houses.
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long
Chris Austin wrote:
I have been buying 3-4 houses a month for the last 3 months. But it's really not that simple; I've been having the sellers fiance them to me. First, this doesn't hit my credit and second, it allows me to re-sell them with seller financing. When interest rates start to move up like they were in the 80's seller financing will be the absolute best way to move houses.
You should write a book and have Tony Roberts sell it in an infomercial.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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Dirk Higbee wrote:
Also, buy 3-4 houses if you can. Then just ride it out.
I have been buying 3-4 houses a month for the last 3 months. But it's really not that simple; I've been having the sellers fiance them to me. First, this doesn't hit my credit and second, it allows me to re-sell them with seller financing. When interest rates start to move up like they were in the 80's seller financing will be the absolute best way to move houses.
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long
Chris Austin wrote:
I have been buying 3-4 houses a month for the last 3 months
Wow, that sounds risky. And is contrary to your signature.
Chris Austin wrote:
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without.
Hope it works our for you.
MrPlankton
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BoneSoft wrote:
we don't really blame Canada for Celine Dion.
We don't??? She, alone, is reason to annex Prince Edward island.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
Ok, I can't speak for the country... But I suppose somebody should be blamed for her. I was leaning towards the makers of the movie Titanic who gave her a career. Or Vegas for keeping her in that career.
Visit BoneSoft.com for code generation tools (XML & XSD -> C#, VB, etc...) and some free developer tools as well.
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Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Just hypothetically, what would happen in the worst case scenario?
I become Benevolent Leader for Life of the entire world after I seize control of the Swiss banking system. I'm working on it now, oops, I mean don't worry about it.
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
73Zeppelin wrote:
I become Benevolent Leader for Life of the entire world after I seize control of the Swiss banking system. I'm working on it now, oops, I mean don't worry about it.
He said worst case. That's not you becoming Benevolent Leader for Life, that's Ilion becoming Benevolent Leader for Life.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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A Wong wrote:
recruited by terrorist
Don't see that happening. I can see that people en masse protesting - perhaps violently - at the gates of Government buildings and financial institutions.
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
I can see that people en masse protesting - perhaps violently - at the gates of Government buildings and financial institutions.
I like the idea of the heads of the heads of government being prominently displayed on the spikes on the gates of government buildings. . .
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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73Zeppelin wrote:
I become Benevolent Leader for Life of the entire world after I seize control of the Swiss banking system. I'm working on it now, oops, I mean don't worry about it.
He said worst case. That's not you becoming Benevolent Leader for Life, that's Ilion becoming Benevolent Leader for Life.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
Well, I can be pretty tyrannical but you do have a point...
...that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore.
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
As a young teenager, your parents should be able to protect you from the worst of the present ravages.
Protection? Ha! I don't need protection, I AM INVINCIBLE!
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Don't spend what you don't own. Don't buy on credit unless it is an affordable mortgage. Save what you can. Invest in a Pensions scheme for your old age (yep I know it is a very long way off but you need to think about it sooner rather than later).
OK, I'll remember that. And I have a pretty good memory, believe me. :-\
Ravel H. Joyce wrote:
Ha! I don't need protection, I AM INVINCIBLE!
Seen GoldenEye? You sound like Boris.
Cheers, Vıkram.
"if abusing me makes you a credible then i better give u the chance which didnt get in real" - Adnan Siddiqi.
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Chris Austin wrote:
I have been buying 3-4 houses a month for the last 3 months. But it's really not that simple; I've been having the sellers fiance them to me. First, this doesn't hit my credit and second, it allows me to re-sell them with seller financing. When interest rates start to move up like they were in the 80's seller financing will be the absolute best way to move houses.
You should write a book and have Tony Roberts sell it in an infomercial.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
Nope nothing infomercial about it. Just old school seller financing.
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long
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Chris Austin wrote:
I have been buying 3-4 houses a month for the last 3 months
Wow, that sounds risky. And is contrary to your signature.
Chris Austin wrote:
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without.
Hope it works our for you.
MrPlankton
MrPlankton wrote:
Wow, that sounds risky
Real estate is 100% local. In my marker we experienced almost none of the rampant inflation and subsequent deflation of house prices. Risk is mitigated by knowing your market and the worst case. Also, every loan I take out is a non-recourse loan which means it is only business credit with no guarantees by me personally.
MrPlankton wrote:
And is contrary to your signature.
Not really. These loans are not personal loans and have no guarantee by me personally. Also, these aren't loans for things like a TV or a car; this is revenue generation.
MrPlankton wrote:
Hope it works our for you.
Thanks, it has been working for quite some time. Now, our company has picked up it's pace of acquisitions.
Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long
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I think its the only way out. They must manufacture and sell. They are still a resource rich country and weakening the dollar would help exports hugely. Anyone fancy a Dodge Viper for 15,000 euros?
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
Anyone fancy a Dodge Viper for 15,000 euros?
Thanks, but no thanks. Nice car, but the gas mileage is not good at all.
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
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No, there is no glee, it will be good to see the US get back to what it stood for 40 years ago.
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
fat_boy wrote:
what it stood for 40 years ago
Free market capitalism and christianity?
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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Gotta pay your taxes to the king first. Back taxes I mean!
Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription
Waive the penalties and intereset and you've got a deal!