US Presidential Election Maps
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I am just curious if anybody actually uses or looks at these maps. I have not linked any here as there are thousands, but I am talking about any of the density poll prediction maps like you see on CNN, red/blue who has what state type things. As I said, I am just curious how useful are these things and how much do people look at them. I am fairly oblivious as I work in developing GIS systems and have a background in Geography and GIS so out of interest I look at maps as often as possible. Aaron
_____________________________________________________________________ Our developers never release code. Rather, it tends to escape, pillaging the countryside all around. The Enlightenment Project (paraphrased comment) Visit Me at GISDevCafe
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I am just curious if anybody actually uses or looks at these maps. I have not linked any here as there are thousands, but I am talking about any of the density poll prediction maps like you see on CNN, red/blue who has what state type things. As I said, I am just curious how useful are these things and how much do people look at them. I am fairly oblivious as I work in developing GIS systems and have a background in Geography and GIS so out of interest I look at maps as often as possible. Aaron
_____________________________________________________________________ Our developers never release code. Rather, it tends to escape, pillaging the countryside all around. The Enlightenment Project (paraphrased comment) Visit Me at GISDevCafe
Considering the rapid (and escalating) decline over the last 20 years in the accuracy of polling data I think the only map that matters is the one *after* the election is over. I would consider them about half as accurate as the pollsters claim them to be. A much more accurate system than traditional polling would be to ask people the questions in the form of "Disregarding your own personal choice, who do you think will end up getting elected [in your area]". It's well known that people as a large enough group are very accurate about predicting what will happen in simple enough situations but horrible about being honest about their own decisions. If there are any stock market or betting type sites for the election I'd look to those first.
"It's so simple to be wise. Just think of something stupid to say and then don't say it." -Sam Levenson
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I am just curious if anybody actually uses or looks at these maps. I have not linked any here as there are thousands, but I am talking about any of the density poll prediction maps like you see on CNN, red/blue who has what state type things. As I said, I am just curious how useful are these things and how much do people look at them. I am fairly oblivious as I work in developing GIS systems and have a background in Geography and GIS so out of interest I look at maps as often as possible. Aaron
_____________________________________________________________________ Our developers never release code. Rather, it tends to escape, pillaging the countryside all around. The Enlightenment Project (paraphrased comment) Visit Me at GISDevCafe
Aaron VanWieren wrote:
I am just curious if anybody actually uses or looks at these maps.
Yes, I've looked at those maps, and pretty much just ignore them since they are probably biased. Refraining from politics so this can stay Lounge friendly :)
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
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Considering the rapid (and escalating) decline over the last 20 years in the accuracy of polling data I think the only map that matters is the one *after* the election is over. I would consider them about half as accurate as the pollsters claim them to be. A much more accurate system than traditional polling would be to ask people the questions in the form of "Disregarding your own personal choice, who do you think will end up getting elected [in your area]". It's well known that people as a large enough group are very accurate about predicting what will happen in simple enough situations but horrible about being honest about their own decisions. If there are any stock market or betting type sites for the election I'd look to those first.
"It's so simple to be wise. Just think of something stupid to say and then don't say it." -Sam Levenson
John C wrote:
Considering the rapid (and escalating) decline over the last 20 years in the accuracy of polling data I think the only map that matters is the one *after* the election is over.
Which is why I really don't take anything serious on the politics pages of any of the media outlets. I did just get a call from a company that does polls, googled the phone number, and found out these guys are biased to one particular candidate-who-shall-not-be-named.
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
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Aaron VanWieren wrote:
I am just curious if anybody actually uses or looks at these maps.
Yes, I've looked at those maps, and pretty much just ignore them since they are probably biased. Refraining from politics so this can stay Lounge friendly :)
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
Paul Conrad wrote:
Yes, I've looked at those maps, and pretty much just ignore them since they are probably biased.
you mean the polls used to color the maps are biased ?
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Paul Conrad wrote:
Yes, I've looked at those maps, and pretty much just ignore them since they are probably biased.
you mean the polls used to color the maps are biased ?
Perhaps so. No way of knowing for sure. Like John C said, the map that comes out the day after elections is the one that really counts.
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
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Aaron VanWieren wrote:
I am just curious if anybody actually uses or looks at these maps.
Yes, I've looked at those maps, and pretty much just ignore them since they are probably biased. Refraining from politics so this can stay Lounge friendly :)
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
I have blogged about several of them now, mostly interested in their overall ability to use the internet medium and online mapping capabilities. There was one I found that had a novel approach which was to weigh the polls based on very selective criteria, that was fivethirtyeight.com. Their statistical system is extremely complex and seems to leave some room for thought. Aaron
_____________________________________________________________________ Our developers never release code. Rather, it tends to escape, pillaging the countryside all around. The Enlightenment Project (paraphrased comment) Visit Me at GISDevCafe
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Aaron VanWieren wrote:
I am just curious if anybody actually uses or looks at these maps.
Yes, I've looked at those maps, and pretty much just ignore them since they are probably biased. Refraining from politics so this can stay Lounge friendly :)
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
I think polling, electronic voting machines, stats etc are all interesting topics for discussion and wish we could discuss this kind of thing more often here without it devolving into a political debate but that seems impossible sadly.
"It's so simple to be wise. Just think of something stupid to say and then don't say it." -Sam Levenson
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I think polling, electronic voting machines, stats etc are all interesting topics for discussion and wish we could discuss this kind of thing more often here without it devolving into a political debate but that seems impossible sadly.
"It's so simple to be wise. Just think of something stupid to say and then don't say it." -Sam Levenson
John C wrote:
think polling, electronic voting machines, stats etc are all interesting topics for discussion
I second that. I am more interested in the theoretical basis of it, not the human political opinion part.
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
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John C wrote:
think polling, electronic voting machines, stats etc are all interesting topics for discussion
I second that. I am more interested in the theoretical basis of it, not the human political opinion part.
"The clue train passed his station without stopping." - John Simmons / outlaw programmer "Real programmers just throw a bunch of 1s and 0s at the computer to see what sticks" - Pete O'Hanlon "Not only do you continue to babble nonsense, you can't even correctly remember the nonsense you babbled just minutes ago." - Rob Graham
Yeah, that is sorta what I have been interested in as I have looked them over. I have also been interested how the entire website is put together and tells the story. Some of Google's maps,New York Times and CNN's maps have non poll data that is really well thought out. Aaron
_____________________________________________________________________ Our developers never release code. Rather, it tends to escape, pillaging the countryside all around. The Enlightenment Project (paraphrased comment) Visit Me at GISDevCafe
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Considering the rapid (and escalating) decline over the last 20 years in the accuracy of polling data I think the only map that matters is the one *after* the election is over. I would consider them about half as accurate as the pollsters claim them to be. A much more accurate system than traditional polling would be to ask people the questions in the form of "Disregarding your own personal choice, who do you think will end up getting elected [in your area]". It's well known that people as a large enough group are very accurate about predicting what will happen in simple enough situations but horrible about being honest about their own decisions. If there are any stock market or betting type sites for the election I'd look to those first.
"It's so simple to be wise. Just think of something stupid to say and then don't say it." -Sam Levenson
Even that doesn't matter.
Need software developed? Offering C# development all over the United States, ERL GLOBAL, Inc is the only call you will have to make.
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Most of this sig is for Google, not ego. -
Even that doesn't matter.
Need software developed? Offering C# development all over the United States, ERL GLOBAL, Inc is the only call you will have to make.
Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know. -- Ernest Hemingway
Most of this sig is for Google, not ego.