Some whacky ideas
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Unfortunately, I think Carson is right, and you and Stan are engaging in wishful thinking. The confluence of events, the normal political climate cycle, and the profound incompetence of the second Bush term have combined to give the left momentum for at least the next decade.
Rob Graham wrote:
you and Stan are engaging in wishful thinking
I'm doing more than that, I'm giving voice to my opposition plus support to candidates that want to do more than create a nation of gimmeys.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
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Rob Graham wrote:
the normal political climate cycle
Thats the big question though. Is anything that is going on actually 'normal'?
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
I think a small part of what is going on is "normal" - after 8 years of republican domination things were likely to move left a bit, particularly with an increasingly unpopular war. The 2nd Bush term was full of blunders, staring with the waste of political capital on SS reform, katrina, and corruption problems. All of these would have resulted in a change of direction (as the 2006 election showed). The incredible economic mess that began to be obvious in 2007 with the collapse of Countrywide, that was either missed or ignored by the administration, leading to the October 2008 collapse - just sealed the outcome (and made it sufficiently one-sided to insure that in the early going the winners could claim and exercise a "mandate"). Add to that the "prophsies of impending economic calamity" started by Paulson, and gleefully picked up by Obama, and you have what we see. The "New World Order" conspiracy stuff still seems a very big stretch, but it is not a surprise to see conservatives adopting it, it serves as a convenient way to avoid having to admit that they bungled the last 4 years (at least) and threw away their access to power for the foreseeable future.
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Rob Graham wrote:
you and Stan are engaging in wishful thinking
I'm doing more than that, I'm giving voice to my opposition plus support to candidates that want to do more than create a nation of gimmeys.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
Good. Got any suggestions, I sure don't see many choices out there that I like. (the few that are at all appealing are Libertarians...)
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That would only be true if what we are being told about the extent of the financial crisis is not true. If it is true, we are in a completely different ball game. The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors. But certainly, if the crisis is not nearly as bad as defined, if Obama can get control of it, than absolutely, they will have control for the next seveal decades, if not permanently. Conservatism will have been entirely invalidated as a viable political option. The pendulum might swing back in some direction, but it will never swing back towards anything resembling traditional American civilization.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Stan Shannon wrote:
The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors.
I would argue that that is not at all the case, but rather that we tend to take to short a view of those cycles (and perhaps lack enough data). 1837, 1873, 1930, 2008... Not many data points to figure out what the long cycle might be, but 35-60 years looks suspicious. This[^] is a strong candidate in my opinion.
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Good. Got any suggestions, I sure don't see many choices out there that I like. (the few that are at all appealing are Libertarians...)
Rob Graham wrote:
Good. Got any suggestions
Arlen Spector's opponent in the up coming Pennsylvania GOP primary, run up to 2010. Barbara Boxer's GOP opponent, also for 2010. Bobby Jindal. Sarah Palin. Sanford. -> 3 governors. For 2012, my favorite in Palin as a populist on the conservative side but Jindal and Sanford would get me going door to door as well. Cantor, Pence in teh House are good, DeMint is becoming a star. I contend that Obama is a media creation and his decisions early on show that he's not much more.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
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Unfortunately, I think Carson is right, and you and Stan are engaging in wishful thinking. The confluence of events, the normal political climate cycle, and the profound incompetence of the second Bush term have combined to give the left momentum for at least the next decade.
Rob Graham wrote:
The confluence of events, the normal political climate cycle, and the profound incompetence of the second Bush term have combined to give the left momentum for at least the next decade.
Are you assuming that we will pull out of the recession within the next four years, or that, like FDR, Obama will be seen as doing better than anyone else could?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Rob Graham wrote:
you and Stan are engaging in wishful thinking
I'm doing more than that, I'm giving voice to my opposition plus support to candidates that want to do more than create a nation of gimmeys.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
Mike Gaskey wrote:
I'm doing more than that, I'm giving voice to my opposition plus support to candidates that want to do more than create a nation of gimmeys.
Sweeping back the tide with a broom, Mike? From where I sit, we'd both be better off building a boat. Big ones.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Rob Graham wrote:
The confluence of events, the normal political climate cycle, and the profound incompetence of the second Bush term have combined to give the left momentum for at least the next decade.
Are you assuming that we will pull out of the recession within the next four years, or that, like FDR, Obama will be seen as doing better than anyone else could?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
I don't see how we pull out of this anytime soon. There is just too much of a mess. I think the massive spending spree will limit the severity, but the subsequent inflation will prevent any recovery for some time. All bets are off if the rest of the world loses confidence in US Treasuries, and we get a bond collapse on top of everything else (this is worrisome, as the rates on the long bond keep rising, even as the FED holds the short term rates almost negative). I don't see how the Republicans recover as long as the economy remains in the ditch,IMO the Democrats have already successfully blamed this on them, and can make the :do you trust the guys that caused this to do any better" argument work for at least the next 4 elections, longer if they get marginal improvement to point at. By 2016 it will be a whole new ball game, and those of us here won't recognize any of the players. Unfortunately, we live in "Interesting Times"...
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Mike Gaskey wrote:
I'm doing more than that, I'm giving voice to my opposition plus support to candidates that want to do more than create a nation of gimmeys.
Sweeping back the tide with a broom, Mike? From where I sit, we'd both be better off building a boat. Big ones.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
Oakman wrote:
Sweeping back the tide with a broom
Not by myself unless we're really a nation of lost balls.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
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I don't see how we pull out of this anytime soon. There is just too much of a mess. I think the massive spending spree will limit the severity, but the subsequent inflation will prevent any recovery for some time. All bets are off if the rest of the world loses confidence in US Treasuries, and we get a bond collapse on top of everything else (this is worrisome, as the rates on the long bond keep rising, even as the FED holds the short term rates almost negative). I don't see how the Republicans recover as long as the economy remains in the ditch,IMO the Democrats have already successfully blamed this on them, and can make the :do you trust the guys that caused this to do any better" argument work for at least the next 4 elections, longer if they get marginal improvement to point at. By 2016 it will be a whole new ball game, and those of us here won't recognize any of the players. Unfortunately, we live in "Interesting Times"...
Rob Graham wrote:
All bets are off if the rest of the world loses confidence in US Treasuries, and we get a bond collapse on top of everything else (this is worrisome, as the rates on the long bond keep rising, even as the FED holds the short term rates almost negative).
I made exactly these points to John Carson in a discussion we had last night and early this morning. He tried to reassure me that a national debt to GDP ratio of 60% wasn't too bad. But since thats a 50% increase in 8 years, extrapolating out, even on a straight line basis, gives us 90% in another eight. Frankly, I keep looking for reasons for the global economy not to implode by 2012 and not finding them. (I'm very involved in a startup that should go-live in late 2010 or early 2011. I love the work, but I keep asking myself if I have any reason to believe that I wouldn't be doing myself more good by fortifying my house and putting more land under cultivation.)
Rob Graham wrote:
Unfortunately, we live in "Interesting Times"...
And since this is one of those historical periods when China isn't feeling isolationist, the reference is even more appropriate. I cannot imagine that they are looking at their holdings and becoming excited by being paid back in dollars that are worth the tiniest fraction of what they were when they were loaned out. That could prove very "interesting" indeed.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Rob Graham wrote:
All bets are off if the rest of the world loses confidence in US Treasuries, and we get a bond collapse on top of everything else (this is worrisome, as the rates on the long bond keep rising, even as the FED holds the short term rates almost negative).
I made exactly these points to John Carson in a discussion we had last night and early this morning. He tried to reassure me that a national debt to GDP ratio of 60% wasn't too bad. But since thats a 50% increase in 8 years, extrapolating out, even on a straight line basis, gives us 90% in another eight. Frankly, I keep looking for reasons for the global economy not to implode by 2012 and not finding them. (I'm very involved in a startup that should go-live in late 2010 or early 2011. I love the work, but I keep asking myself if I have any reason to believe that I wouldn't be doing myself more good by fortifying my house and putting more land under cultivation.)
Rob Graham wrote:
Unfortunately, we live in "Interesting Times"...
And since this is one of those historical periods when China isn't feeling isolationist, the reference is even more appropriate. I cannot imagine that they are looking at their holdings and becoming excited by being paid back in dollars that are worth the tiniest fraction of what they were when they were loaned out. That could prove very "interesting" indeed.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
China's a wild card. I've read that this is hurting them pretty badly already, as they US demand for their products collapses, their very new industrial base is imploding. Many jobs lost, many young people forced back to their subsistence economy agrarian roots. China could be too preoccupied by internal strife to be much of a danger, or it could decide that a war of conquest was the best distraction and way out. Putin should be very, very scared. And Secy. Clinton seems to have just given them a freer hand...
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Stan Shannon wrote:
The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors.
I would argue that that is not at all the case, but rather that we tend to take to short a view of those cycles (and perhaps lack enough data). 1837, 1873, 1930, 2008... Not many data points to figure out what the long cycle might be, but 35-60 years looks suspicious. This[^] is a strong candidate in my opinion.
Rob Graham wrote:
I would argue that that is not at all the case, but rather that we tend to take to short a view of those cycles (and perhaps lack enough data).
I hate to disagree with you and agree with Stan, but. . . Never before in the lifetime of the United States has the currency of this country been valueless. Even Roosevelt simply devalued our currency by about 45%. How can anyone fix our economy when/if no-one will sell anything to us, including ourselves? And how far in the future is that day?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Oakman wrote:
Sweeping back the tide with a broom
Not by myself unless we're really a nation of lost balls.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
Mike Gaskey wrote:
Not by myself unless we're really a nation of lost balls.
Nobody ever said the Light Brigade didn't have balls. Or that they won.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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China's a wild card. I've read that this is hurting them pretty badly already, as they US demand for their products collapses, their very new industrial base is imploding. Many jobs lost, many young people forced back to their subsistence economy agrarian roots. China could be too preoccupied by internal strife to be much of a danger, or it could decide that a war of conquest was the best distraction and way out. Putin should be very, very scared. And Secy. Clinton seems to have just given them a freer hand...
Rob Graham wrote:
And Secy. Clinton seems to have just given them a freer hand...
You noticed that, too: "Let's you and me beat him up" I wonder if there's an accurate count of the number of times giant armies from Greater China have decided they wanted a piece of Russia, India, etc.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Rob Graham wrote:
I would argue that that is not at all the case, but rather that we tend to take to short a view of those cycles (and perhaps lack enough data).
I hate to disagree with you and agree with Stan, but. . . Never before in the lifetime of the United States has the currency of this country been valueless. Even Roosevelt simply devalued our currency by about 45%. How can anyone fix our economy when/if no-one will sell anything to us, including ourselves? And how far in the future is that day?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
I think you misunderstood, or I made my point poorly (most likely). I was disagreeing with Stan's contention that the old economic/political cycles did not apply, and that the extent of crisis was largely fabricated. I think the long cycle theory supports another severe depression in the current time frame, and think the Democrats will have a difficult time sorting it out. If anything, I thing they will prolong it, although that will be difficult to prove (just as it has remained with FDR's efforts). It will sort itself out, but likely not for a decade or more again, and when it does, the world will be vastly different, just as it was the last couple of times. I just worry that wid scale war is the 'sort it out ' mechanism, it sure looks like it could be...
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Rob Graham wrote:
And Secy. Clinton seems to have just given them a freer hand...
You noticed that, too: "Let's you and me beat him up" I wonder if there's an accurate count of the number of times giant armies from Greater China have decided they wanted a piece of Russia, India, etc.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
Sometimes Russia and India were not enough - just how big was Genghis Khan's empire?
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Stan Shannon wrote:
The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors.
I would argue that that is not at all the case, but rather that we tend to take to short a view of those cycles (and perhaps lack enough data). 1837, 1873, 1930, 2008... Not many data points to figure out what the long cycle might be, but 35-60 years looks suspicious. This[^] is a strong candidate in my opinion.
I am a strong believer in hisotric cycles. There are cycles within cycles as with most complex systems. Consider 1776-1860-1940 average about 80 years or so, about a single life span. That means that the next great catastrophy in our national history is only about a decade away. That would jive well with a depression lasting about 10 years or so. Right on schedule. We have a few more years of national economic and social turbulance, than some kind of great confrontation between warring principles.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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I think you misunderstood, or I made my point poorly (most likely). I was disagreeing with Stan's contention that the old economic/political cycles did not apply, and that the extent of crisis was largely fabricated. I think the long cycle theory supports another severe depression in the current time frame, and think the Democrats will have a difficult time sorting it out. If anything, I thing they will prolong it, although that will be difficult to prove (just as it has remained with FDR's efforts). It will sort itself out, but likely not for a decade or more again, and when it does, the world will be vastly different, just as it was the last couple of times. I just worry that wid scale war is the 'sort it out ' mechanism, it sure looks like it could be...
Rob Graham wrote:
I was disagreeing with Stan's contention that the old economic/political cycles did not apply, and that the extent of crisis was largely fabricated
That isn't my contention, it is merely a possibility that I don't think can be ignored. Even if the crisis is fabricated, however, that doesn't mean an end to the problem. It means that someone has the power to fabricate such a crisis for thier own purposes - which is a crisis in its own right. Either way, we have a crisis.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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Rob Graham wrote:
I was disagreeing with Stan's contention that the old economic/political cycles did not apply, and that the extent of crisis was largely fabricated
That isn't my contention, it is merely a possibility that I don't think can be ignored. Even if the crisis is fabricated, however, that doesn't mean an end to the problem. It means that someone has the power to fabricate such a crisis for thier own purposes - which is a crisis in its own right. Either way, we have a crisis.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Stan Shannon wrote:
Either way, we have a crisis.
Agreed. And given the politicization of the press, the means exist. And they're all playing along (what's worrisome is that Fox is playing along with the gloom and doom line too, just painting it a different shade). Although i don't think the initial crisis was fabricated, they've definitely jumped on it as a means to an end.
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I am a strong believer in hisotric cycles. There are cycles within cycles as with most complex systems. Consider 1776-1860-1940 average about 80 years or so, about a single life span. That means that the next great catastrophy in our national history is only about a decade away. That would jive well with a depression lasting about 10 years or so. Right on schedule. We have a few more years of national economic and social turbulance, than some kind of great confrontation between warring principles.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Sadly, I see much the same thing. I don't see this as a conspiracy so much as just the result of some natural cycle we don't understand. Perhaps we can influence the amplitude in small ways, but I suspect we don't know how to influence the frequency. The coincidence of wide scale warfare and the apparent frequency of major contractions is disturbing, but makes sense in the most macabre way.