Oh oh.
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Okay. Let me know if you received the paper. I sent them out now. We can always use the above, too.
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China's premier worried for U.S. investments[^] "Beijing has high expectations for U.S. President Barack Obama's economic recovery strategy, but worries remain about the safety of China's assets in the United States, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday." What's next? China dumping US t-bills?
73Zeppelin wrote:
"Beijing has high expectations for U.S. President Barack Obama's economic recovery strategy, but worries remain about the safety of China's assets in the United States, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday."
We talked about this day only a few months ago - but as if it was a year or two in the future. One of two scenarios comes to mind: Either he's terrified it's all going to go up in smoke in the next few weeks; or he's anticipating the US being able to recover far faster than his country and wants to destabilize any chance that Obama can pull it off (or be the beneficiary of the market doing its natural thing.) Keep your powder dry
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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73Zeppelin wrote:
"Beijing has high expectations for U.S. President Barack Obama's economic recovery strategy, but worries remain about the safety of China's assets in the United States, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday."
We talked about this day only a few months ago - but as if it was a year or two in the future. One of two scenarios comes to mind: Either he's terrified it's all going to go up in smoke in the next few weeks; or he's anticipating the US being able to recover far faster than his country and wants to destabilize any chance that Obama can pull it off (or be the beneficiary of the market doing its natural thing.) Keep your powder dry
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
I highly doubt a military invasion. I do not doubt economic warfare. This is a veiled threat, in my opinion. It says, we know you are weak economically and we hold the button. Do not make us press it. Like I said, even a downgrade from AAA to AA on US treasury debt could break the States. China has to maintain economic growth at all costs or face massive social unrest that could collapse the country. I do not doubt for one minute that they would knowingly harm the US economically in order to keep their country 'stable'. I'm sure that we'll see renminbi manupulation and I don't think the US will be calling China on it this time. Hell of a thing to be dependent on other countries for energy and their willingness to buy government debt.
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73Zeppelin wrote:
"Beijing has high expectations for U.S. President Barack Obama's economic recovery strategy, but worries remain about the safety of China's assets in the United States, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday."
We talked about this day only a few months ago - but as if it was a year or two in the future. One of two scenarios comes to mind: Either he's terrified it's all going to go up in smoke in the next few weeks; or he's anticipating the US being able to recover far faster than his country and wants to destabilize any chance that Obama can pull it off (or be the beneficiary of the market doing its natural thing.) Keep your powder dry
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
I rather suspect that if America does default in any way on any of its commitments then the fears of the ruling Chinese Government might come true - namely - social instability. They are worried that a slip in annual growth slips below 8% could be the trigger. Perhaps the experiment of capitalist financials and communist politicals could result in a head-on clash and a possible blood bath could result. That could have the side effect of overflowing to other areas where China is either a controlling or moderating force such as North Korea.
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73Zeppelin wrote:
"Beijing has high expectations for U.S. President Barack Obama's economic recovery strategy, but worries remain about the safety of China's assets in the United States, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday."
We talked about this day only a few months ago - but as if it was a year or two in the future. One of two scenarios comes to mind: Either he's terrified it's all going to go up in smoke in the next few weeks; or he's anticipating the US being able to recover far faster than his country and wants to destabilize any chance that Obama can pull it off (or be the beneficiary of the market doing its natural thing.) Keep your powder dry
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
I would wonder how much this is related to the recent saber rattling over US navy spy vessels. This could well be just insurance that we don't push our challenge of their 200 mile off shore territorial claims. If it's not that, then I would suspect its the first of your conjectures. I don't think it serves China to impede our recovery, rather just the opposite: the sooner we get back to buying large amounts of cheap Chinese product, the sooner they get their people back to work and avoid internal strife. If it's the latter, one could see a really nasty economic war coming. If treasuries got downgraded because of action By China, the demands for retaliation could be hard for politicians to resist, and might be used as cover to completely default on the debt. Like a bankruptcy, the short term pain (blamed entirely on the Chinese, of course) would be high, but the long term gain of dumping the debt might actually be a good thing, as well as bolster the fortunes of the party in power (think "special emergency powers").
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Okay. Let me know if you received the paper. I sent them out now. We can always use the above, too.
Yeah, I received it too. What's with the above Gmail account info, though?
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
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I highly doubt a military invasion. I do not doubt economic warfare. This is a veiled threat, in my opinion. It says, we know you are weak economically and we hold the button. Do not make us press it. Like I said, even a downgrade from AAA to AA on US treasury debt could break the States. China has to maintain economic growth at all costs or face massive social unrest that could collapse the country. I do not doubt for one minute that they would knowingly harm the US economically in order to keep their country 'stable'. I'm sure that we'll see renminbi manupulation and I don't think the US will be calling China on it this time. Hell of a thing to be dependent on other countries for energy and their willingness to buy government debt.
73Zeppelin wrote:
I do not doubt economic warfare
I think that's already been going on. (As I am sure, do you.) But I think they've made the same mistake so much of the world has of assuming that the American financial engine was all powerful. They have, as you indicate, been attempting to gain a stranglehold on the US by buying up all its debt. And it certainly has worked for at least the last 12 years. neither Clinton nor Bush have told their bankers, "no," re: anything that was important. Marx said that the capitalist will "sell us the rope we hang him with," but I doubt he ever conceived of a situation where the capitalist would send him the money to buy the farm to grow the hemp to make the rope, in return for shoes that don't fit, food that is poisoned, and cheap goods made by slaves. However, this recession/depression that we are going through has shown both sides that China is (again, as you said) extremely vulnerable to the US. Although everyone assures me that tariffs are terrible idea, the effective tariffs that the US population has erected against China by simply refusing to buy their goods, have set her up for a peasant revolution - ironic when you think that they are, nominally at least, a communist country. It may or may not come to a shooting war but I note that we are now guarding our spy ships with a destroyer. What happens if that turns into a carrier group? What happens if the US goes after Pakistan which is probably more of China's ally that they have ever been the US's? What happens if the US gets sucked into the Mexican civil war? I have tried to understand what someeone like Larry Summers might be thinking when he signs off on these massive expenditres the US government is making. The only thing I can come up with is that he believes that we will inflate the money supply by so much that our debt will shrink to a fraction of what it presently is, in terms of buying power.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Hell of a thing to be dependent on other countries for energy and their willingness to buy government debt
Once upon a time it was rubber. Isn't there some axiom or other that deals with the idea that nations will always expand their use of easily obtained natural resources until they aren't?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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Yeah, I received it too. What's with the above Gmail account info, though?
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
It's like a drop box that we can all access to send things to each other particularly if your email account disallows attachments over a certain size.
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I rather suspect that if America does default in any way on any of its commitments then the fears of the ruling Chinese Government might come true - namely - social instability. They are worried that a slip in annual growth slips below 8% could be the trigger. Perhaps the experiment of capitalist financials and communist politicals could result in a head-on clash and a possible blood bath could result. That could have the side effect of overflowing to other areas where China is either a controlling or moderating force such as North Korea.
If China wants war to divert its people's attention, India may probably be the first target. China continues to occupy Aksai Chin and Chumbi valley, and claims Arunachal Pradesh as its own territory. It also heavily influences three other countries India shares a border with: Pakistan, Nepal, Burma. Or China and Pakistan could do it together. Pakistan itself is going through internal strife, though the primary cause is not the economy there.
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
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It's like a drop box that we can all access to send things to each other particularly if your email account disallows attachments over a certain size.
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73Zeppelin wrote:
I do not doubt economic warfare
I think that's already been going on. (As I am sure, do you.) But I think they've made the same mistake so much of the world has of assuming that the American financial engine was all powerful. They have, as you indicate, been attempting to gain a stranglehold on the US by buying up all its debt. And it certainly has worked for at least the last 12 years. neither Clinton nor Bush have told their bankers, "no," re: anything that was important. Marx said that the capitalist will "sell us the rope we hang him with," but I doubt he ever conceived of a situation where the capitalist would send him the money to buy the farm to grow the hemp to make the rope, in return for shoes that don't fit, food that is poisoned, and cheap goods made by slaves. However, this recession/depression that we are going through has shown both sides that China is (again, as you said) extremely vulnerable to the US. Although everyone assures me that tariffs are terrible idea, the effective tariffs that the US population has erected against China by simply refusing to buy their goods, have set her up for a peasant revolution - ironic when you think that they are, nominally at least, a communist country. It may or may not come to a shooting war but I note that we are now guarding our spy ships with a destroyer. What happens if that turns into a carrier group? What happens if the US goes after Pakistan which is probably more of China's ally that they have ever been the US's? What happens if the US gets sucked into the Mexican civil war? I have tried to understand what someeone like Larry Summers might be thinking when he signs off on these massive expenditres the US government is making. The only thing I can come up with is that he believes that we will inflate the money supply by so much that our debt will shrink to a fraction of what it presently is, in terms of buying power.
73Zeppelin wrote:
Hell of a thing to be dependent on other countries for energy and their willingness to buy government debt
Once upon a time it was rubber. Isn't there some axiom or other that deals with the idea that nations will always expand their use of easily obtained natural resources until they aren't?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
Oakman wrote:
What happens if the US goes after Pakistan which is probably more of China's ally that they have ever been the US's?
Probably? :suss:
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
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If China wants war to divert its people's attention, India may probably be the first target. China continues to occupy Aksai Chin and Chumbi valley, and claims Arunachal Pradesh as its own territory. It also heavily influences three other countries India shares a border with: Pakistan, Nepal, Burma. Or China and Pakistan could do it together. Pakistan itself is going through internal strife, though the primary cause is not the economy there.
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
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Oakman wrote:
What happens if the US goes after Pakistan which is probably more of China's ally that they have ever been the US's?
Probably? :suss:
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
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I was thinking more along the lines of Chinese internal strife rather than general war with any of its neighbours. But having said that, do you feel that China could turn openly hostile to India?
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
do you feel that China could turn openly hostile to India
Let's ask Tibet.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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India isn't like Tibet. India can pack a fair punch that might make Beijing think twice. The price might be a tad too high.
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
India can pack a fair punch that might make Beijing think twice.
Agreed. But if we are discussing China getting into combat with the U.S., we cannot assume that she would blink at thge idea of taking on India.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface
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I was thinking more along the lines of Chinese internal strife rather than general war with any of its neighbours. But having said that, do you feel that China could turn openly hostile to India?
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
With e-mail accounts you can't access them without a password
Hey, what is this, Internet 101? :) I was thinking more along the lines of sharing it privately amongst a small group, to prevent abuse. But yeah, there are disadvantages with approach too. Just my 1 cent (due to the recession ;) ).
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
With e-mail accounts you can't access them without a password
Hey, what is this, Internet 101? :) I was thinking more along the lines of sharing it privately amongst a small group, to prevent abuse. But yeah, there are disadvantages with approach too. Just my 1 cent (due to the recession ;) ).
Cheers, Vıkram.
Carpe Diem.
Vikram A Punathambekar wrote:
Hey, what is this, Internet 101?
Sorry :-O As soon as Maunder fixes the e-mail link there would probably be a reduced need for such an external account. Anyhow, given a day or two this thread will be almost out-of-site and forgotten.