Debt and Deficits: How the US got where it is and where it is headed
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Your opinion on this subject, as on any other, is worthless.
John Carson
John Carson wrote:
Your opinion on this subject, as on any other, is worthless.
No no John, the fact that you would post this NYT hogwash as some kind of fact proves your opinion on this subject is worthless propaganda.
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“Things will get worse gradually,” Mr. Auerbach predicts, “unless they get worse quickly.” Somehow, that statement really reduced the amount of credibility I'm willing to place in that article. As did the assertion that the Stimulus bill accounts for only 3% of the current deficit. (3% of the current debt I might believe, in part becaus most of it is not yet spent, so is not accounted as debt yet, but 3% of the current account deficit - this budget years spend minus revenue - not likely).
Rob Graham wrote:
“Things will get worse gradually,” Mr. Auerbach predicts, “unless they get worse quickly.” Somehow, that statement really reduced the amount of credibility I'm willing to place in that article.
It was an attempt at humour, with an underlying message that if people lose confidence in the ability of the US to manage its debt, then that will push up interest rates on the debt and cause things to get worse quickly --- much like the collapse in confidence in the financial system caused things to get worse quickly. Auerbach is a very respected name in public finance. http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~auerbach/[^]
Rob Graham wrote:
As did the assertion that the Stimulus bill accounts for only 3% of the current deficit. (3% of the current debt I might believe, in part becaus most of it is not yet spent, so is not accounted as debt yet, but 3% of the current account deficit - this budget years spend minus revenue - not likely).
You have that wrong in two respects. 1. The article discusses the swing from a projected 800 billion surplus to a 1.2 trillion deficit --- a swing of two trillion. Thus all percentages refer to the two trillion swing, not the 1.2 trillion deficit. 2. The stimulus is said to account for 7% of that (and the other Obama measures another 3%). Thus the stimulus is said to be adding around 140 billion to the deficit (the author actually says 145 billion). There is a lot of publicity over the 800 billion total and rather less recognition that this is spread over many years. The figures in the article are meant to be an average for the four years 2009-2012. I wouldn't bet my life on the accuracy of the figures, but I suspect they are in the ballpark.
John Carson
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Do it the European way. It works: - Tax the shit out of rich people. They have nowhere to go. - Set gas price to $6 per galon. - Double the price on alcohol & tobacco. - Encourage pregnant teenagers to have an abortion - Put high taxes on unhealthy foods, e.g sugar - Never go to war. - Total ban on guns. That'll do :-D
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Do it the European way. It works: - Tax the shit out of rich people. They have nowhere to go. - Set gas price to $6 per galon. - Double the price on alcohol & tobacco. - Encourage pregnant teenagers to have an abortion - Put high taxes on unhealthy foods, e.g sugar - Never go to war. - Total ban on guns. That'll do :-D
Haakon S. wrote:
Do it the European way. It works: - Tax the sh*t out of rich people. They have nowhere to go. - Set gas price to $6 per galon. - Double the price on alcohol & tobacco. - Encourage pregnant teenagers to have an abortion - Put high taxes on unhealthy foods, e.g sugar - Never go to war. - Total ban on guns. That'll do
Pretty much. You got it wrong on one point, however. The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries. Freely available contraceptives is more the European approach.
John Carson
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Haakon S. wrote:
Do it the European way. It works: - Tax the sh*t out of rich people. They have nowhere to go. - Set gas price to $6 per galon. - Double the price on alcohol & tobacco. - Encourage pregnant teenagers to have an abortion - Put high taxes on unhealthy foods, e.g sugar - Never go to war. - Total ban on guns. That'll do
Pretty much. You got it wrong on one point, however. The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries. Freely available contraceptives is more the European approach.
John Carson
John Carson wrote:
Pretty much. You got it wrong on one point, however. The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries. Freely available contraceptives is more the European approach.
You're right. I just put it in to rattle the chain on some conservatives that are lurking around here.
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John Carson wrote:
Pretty much. You got it wrong on one point, however. The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries. Freely available contraceptives is more the European approach.
You're right. I just put it in to rattle the chain on some conservatives that are lurking around here.
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The Great Debt Scare: Why has it returned? Robert Reich[^] A defence of deficit spending. I would tend to agree, were the USA starting from a manageable deficit base, but I fear that a more immediate deficit reduction is required.
Bob Emmett
Bob Emmett wrote:
I would tend to agree, were the USA starting from a manageable deficit base, but I fear that a more immediate deficit reduction is required.
I don't think so. They should be spending like crazy now, and then taking tough action to trim the deficit later.
John Carson
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Haakon S. wrote:
rattle the chain on some conservatives that are lurking around her
Well your post sounded sarcastic(but in a good way), and you sounded conservative. You may be the first LINO (liberal in name only) that I've ever heard from. :)
kmg365 wrote:
Well your post sounded sarcastic(but in a good way), and you sounded conservative. You may be the first LINO (liberal in name only) that I've ever heard from.
I consider myself conservative, or right wing or whatever you wish to call it. But it is relative. If you use Stan's meassuring stick I'm probably a raving communist.
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Haakon S. wrote:
Do it the European way. It works: - Tax the sh*t out of rich people. They have nowhere to go. - Set gas price to $6 per galon. - Double the price on alcohol & tobacco. - Encourage pregnant teenagers to have an abortion - Put high taxes on unhealthy foods, e.g sugar - Never go to war. - Total ban on guns. That'll do
Pretty much. You got it wrong on one point, however. The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries. Freely available contraceptives is more the European approach.
John Carson
John Carson wrote:
The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries.
Percentage or raw numbers? The US has a higher population so its numbers would be higher.
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Bob Emmett wrote:
I would tend to agree, were the USA starting from a manageable deficit base, but I fear that a more immediate deficit reduction is required.
I don't think so. They should be spending like crazy now, and then taking tough action to trim the deficit later.
John Carson
John Carson wrote:
I don't think so. They should be spending like crazy now, and then taking tough action to trim the deficit later.
Tough action? Such as nationalizing industries and a ~70% tax rate? Your ideas on bankrupting America.
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John Carson wrote:
The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries.
Percentage or raw numbers? The US has a higher population so its numbers would be higher.
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
John Carson: The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries. CaptainSeeSharp: Percentage or raw numbers? The US has a higher population so its numbers would be higher.
Even if John Carson's claim should be true ... the US *also* has more babies per capita than the European countries do.
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kmg365 wrote:
Well your post sounded sarcastic(but in a good way), and you sounded conservative. You may be the first LINO (liberal in name only) that I've ever heard from.
I consider myself conservative, or right wing or whatever you wish to call it. But it is relative. If you use Stan's meassuring stick I'm probably a raving communist.
Haakon S. wrote:
If you use Stan's meassuring stick I'm probably a raving communist.
Anyone who doesn't want to see the U.S. fall apart so that the Aryan Nation can take over Indiana is a raving communist according to him.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Both democrats and republicans are playing for the same team and it's not us. - Chris Austin
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John Carson wrote:
The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries.
Percentage or raw numbers? The US has a higher population so its numbers would be higher.
CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
Percentage or raw numbers?
I think you mean percentage or absolute. I mean percentage. The figures vary significantly from one European country to the other and different sources given somewhat different figures. From the source below, Holland has less than 1/3 the abortion rate of the US (abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44). Overall, the rate for Western Europe is about 1/2 the US rate. (Eastern Europe, by contrast, has much higher abortion rates than the US.) http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/25s3099.html[^]
John Carson
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CaptainSeeSharp wrote:
John Carson: The abortion rate is much higher in the US than in many European countries. CaptainSeeSharp: Percentage or raw numbers? The US has a higher population so its numbers would be higher.
Even if John Carson's claim should be true ... the US *also* has more babies per capita than the European countries do.
Ilíon wrote:
Even if John Carson's claim should be true ... the US *also* has more babies per capita than the European countries do.
This is relevant because...? Surely you are not suggesting that if one woman has an extra child, then that morally cancels out an abortion (of her own or someone else's child).
John Carson
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Interesting article, but some of its conclusions seem based on carefully selected assumptions. For instance, Leonhardt compares the CBO's projections for 2009 made in 2001, with the projections for this year made in the immediate past as if both sets of numbers were equally valid. By doing so, he permits himself to blame Bush for the economic downturn caused by 9/11 - something I suggest would be better laid at the feet of Clinton, if any of the US's leaders must be held accountable instead of laying the blame where it belongs. Just as he correctly makes the point that some of what is happening now is indeed the result of Bush's actions, much of what happened during the first of Bush's terms should be laid at the feet of his predecessors. The idea that programs begun by Bush are responsible for much of the deficit up to now is, of course, valid. The medicare payoff to the insurance companies was one of the most egregious ripoff of the American people, especially senior citizens, that has ever been perpetrated. However, to allow Obama a pass on not discontinuing them seems to be a case of wearing blinders. For instance, it appears quite obvious that he will continue to have lots of troops in Iraq and he seems to be on the road to placing more in Pakistan and Afghanistan that he does pull out of Iraq. The onus for this belongs to him and is not grandfathered in. During the next eight years, the U.S. deficit is projected to increase by an amount greater than it grew under the first 43 president combined. To somehow suggest that Obama - the man in charge, the man with a plan, the leader of the free world - is not to be held responsible for this is, prima facie, ridiculous. For Leonhardt to ignore where we'll be in eight years because the worst happens after the entire stimulus package is spent but the entitlements it creates continue, is disingenuous, to say the least. P.S. If I were you, I wouldn't worry about any criticism for posting only a link. No-one here expects you to have anything but strong opinions on the subject and to argue them quite forcefully in the discussion. ;)
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Both democrats and republicans are playing for the same team and it's not us. - Chris Austin
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Interesting article, but some of its conclusions seem based on carefully selected assumptions. For instance, Leonhardt compares the CBO's projections for 2009 made in 2001, with the projections for this year made in the immediate past as if both sets of numbers were equally valid. By doing so, he permits himself to blame Bush for the economic downturn caused by 9/11 - something I suggest would be better laid at the feet of Clinton, if any of the US's leaders must be held accountable instead of laying the blame where it belongs. Just as he correctly makes the point that some of what is happening now is indeed the result of Bush's actions, much of what happened during the first of Bush's terms should be laid at the feet of his predecessors. The idea that programs begun by Bush are responsible for much of the deficit up to now is, of course, valid. The medicare payoff to the insurance companies was one of the most egregious ripoff of the American people, especially senior citizens, that has ever been perpetrated. However, to allow Obama a pass on not discontinuing them seems to be a case of wearing blinders. For instance, it appears quite obvious that he will continue to have lots of troops in Iraq and he seems to be on the road to placing more in Pakistan and Afghanistan that he does pull out of Iraq. The onus for this belongs to him and is not grandfathered in. During the next eight years, the U.S. deficit is projected to increase by an amount greater than it grew under the first 43 president combined. To somehow suggest that Obama - the man in charge, the man with a plan, the leader of the free world - is not to be held responsible for this is, prima facie, ridiculous. For Leonhardt to ignore where we'll be in eight years because the worst happens after the entire stimulus package is spent but the entitlements it creates continue, is disingenuous, to say the least. P.S. If I were you, I wouldn't worry about any criticism for posting only a link. No-one here expects you to have anything but strong opinions on the subject and to argue them quite forcefully in the discussion. ;)
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Both democrats and republicans are playing for the same team and it's not us. - Chris Austin
Oakman wrote:
During the next eight years, the U.S. deficit is projected to increase by an amount greater than it grew under the first 43 president combined. To somehow suggest that Obama - the man in charge, the man with a plan, the leader of the free world - is not to be held responsible for this is, prima facie, ridiculous. For Leonhardt to ignore where we'll be in eight years because the worst happens after the entire stimulus package is spent but the entitlements it creates continue, is disingenuous, to say the least.
Well, he does quote Auerbach as follows:
Alan Auerbach, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, and an author of a widely cited study on the dangers of the current deficits, describes the situation like so: “Bush behaved incredibly irresponsibly for eight years. On the one hand, it might seem unfair for people to blame Obama for not fixing it. On the other hand, he’s not fixing it.” “And,” he added, “not fixing it is, in a sense, making it worse.”
I think the article provides a useful corrective to the tendency of some to act like the national debt/deficit is a new problem. But clearly Obama is responsible for what he does about it.
John Carson
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Do it the European way. It works: - Tax the shit out of rich people. They have nowhere to go. - Set gas price to $6 per galon. - Double the price on alcohol & tobacco. - Encourage pregnant teenagers to have an abortion - Put high taxes on unhealthy foods, e.g sugar - Never go to war. - Total ban on guns. That'll do :-D
So, you're saying we should get out of wars and ban guns.
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect." - Mark Twain "Diplomacy is the art of saying 'nice doggy' until you can find a rock." - Mark Twain "If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and a man." - Mark Twain "Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read." - Groucho Marx
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Ilíon wrote:
Even if John Carson's claim should be true ... the US *also* has more babies per capita than the European countries do.
This is relevant because...? Surely you are not suggesting that if one woman has an extra child, then that morally cancels out an abortion (of her own or someone else's child).
John Carson
I wish you hadn't said that. Somebody somewhere will take the idea of Cap & Trade Abortions and run with it now. :doh:
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect." - Mark Twain "Diplomacy is the art of saying 'nice doggy' until you can find a rock." - Mark Twain "If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and a man." - Mark Twain "Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read." - Groucho Marx