Continued discussion on the future of outsourcing
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I've often said that programming has become the new factory work of our day. Any time that a product or service becomes a commodity then the value is reduced and quality becomes less of an issue than price. Because coding is now a commodity, to the bean counters in the head office it makes no sense to pay $80-90k a year when they can get someone in a different country to do it for a fraction of that cost. Local programmers may be the ones who have to go back in and clean up the mess (which is likely to be due just as much to the mess that international project management creates as any lack of skills in third world coders), but as anyone who's been in the business knows, programmers don't have a significant voice in high level business decisions. Like factory workers of old, they're just the hired help. Many people disagree with me about the factory work analogy, but I suspect time will unfortunately bear me out, at least in the US. As supply continues to increase both domestically and globally, dev technology continues to dumb down the arena to make it easy for anyone to sling code without any particular talent or education. Fast forward ten or twenty years from now and it's unlikely that coding will be the equivalent of today's $80k job. When it takes no more skill to crank out yet another business app than it does to work on a factory assemply line, the pay will come in line with the latter. That said, global outsourcing is not the sole villian in this play. Supply and demand coupled with dumbed down dev platforms would have ultimately created the factory work scenario just the same. The fact that those making a good living in the US are now competing with those in other countries working for the equivalent salary of a burger flipper simply expedites the process. On the bright side, each new generation of programmers will be raised with lower and lower salary expectations, and thus they'll be perfectly comfortable with the fact that they're getting paid $20k to do what was once a 6 figure job.
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
There are different kind of programming jobs and most of it can become factory work. I don't think there is anything wrong with that. Hence the concept of software factories[^] and intentional programming[^]. But on the other hand there are lot of other software which require real skill. Programmers and architects will always be needed for that and it will continue to pay.
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I agree with commoditization of software development. I have a client now that has constantly been on me about why we can't simply write one set of code that will work in all the business he wants to target. After a couple of projects he is beginning to realize that although you can have a core platform with common features every business is different, with different datasources and requirements that requires some level of customization. What he wanted was to write it once, install it everywhere, and collect the checks.
only two letters away from being an asset
Yeah, and I would imagine those expectations will only continue to increase over time. Part of it is due to the "it's all been done" syndrome. When you look around at business software, we really spend most of our time reinventing the same wheel with database driven apps. Add to that the rise in modular, open source web based systems like Joomla and business people start looking at what we create as little more than Legos. I think that decades from now, software development will indeed become what your client is hoping for (much to our dismay), but we're just not there yet.
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
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There are different kind of programming jobs and most of it can become factory work. I don't think there is anything wrong with that. Hence the concept of software factories[^] and intentional programming[^]. But on the other hand there are lot of other software which require real skill. Programmers and architects will always be needed for that and it will continue to pay.
Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
most of it can become factory work. I don't think there is anything wrong with that
Clearly, you've never experienced the mind numbing life of working in an actual factory. :) I do agree that there will always be gigs where actual skill is required, but consider the fact that pay is relative. If coding becomes a $20k job for the average factory worker, then those needing real talent might be willing to pay as much as double for it. You are young, telented and still enthusiastic about the biz, and so far it's treating you well. However, life is changing more rapidly today than ever before. If you think that the reality you see today bears any resemblance to what you'll see when you're 50, I think you're in for some unpleasant surprises. I don't advocate change just for the sake of change, but I do encourage people to think at least ten years ahead. If I'm wrong, then you'll still have a happy life at 50 slinging code and the effort will have cost you little. However, if I'm right and you're not prepared, you're screwed. That's even more embarrassing when it's avoidable. :-D
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
modified on Tuesday, July 7, 2009 12:44 PM
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I agree with this, 100%. It's one of the reasons I am wondering what I will do next ( although not for a while, but long term, I don't think I will code all my life )
Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista. Read my blog to find out how I've worked around bugs in Microsoft tools and frameworks.
Wow, that is exactly what I'm wondering about. I've been in the trenches only 10 years, but I'm already wearing out. I'm not sure about moving all the way to management (though that's the path I'm on now...). In some ways I'd like to reset and start fresh, but like everyone else, I have expenses that preclude this to a big degree..
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First of a general and a incorrect idea that most people carry is that most of the programmers in India are like the "Urgnt Plzz" programmers in CP forums. In fact I would say that only minority of programmers are like that. The majority may not even frequent CP let alone ask questions in the forums. That being said good outsourcing companies have quality people and they charge more. Not so good companies charge less and hand over "urgent" work to unskilled programmers. Outsourcing will end when it is no longer cheaper to get quality work done at a lower price. That can happen when quality declines or when the income levels increase in outsourced countries to par level (which it has).
Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
that most of the programmers in India are like
I don't recall anyone specifically mentioning Indian developers. The topic was outsourcing in general, whether that is Indian, Chinese, Russian, or Martian. The fact that you seemingly equate outsourcing and poor development with Indian developers is telling of the situation. I've work with several teams and people from various nations and no one has a monopoly on poor developers, whether outsourced, in-house, or H1B
only two letters away from being an asset
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Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
that most of the programmers in India are like
I don't recall anyone specifically mentioning Indian developers. The topic was outsourcing in general, whether that is Indian, Chinese, Russian, or Martian. The fact that you seemingly equate outsourcing and poor development with Indian developers is telling of the situation. I've work with several teams and people from various nations and no one has a monopoly on poor developers, whether outsourced, in-house, or H1B
only two letters away from being an asset
Well India is the major player in outsourcing and majority of poor questions in the forums are undeniably from India.
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Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
most of it can become factory work. I don't think there is anything wrong with that
Clearly, you've never experienced the mind numbing life of working in an actual factory. :) I do agree that there will always be gigs where actual skill is required, but consider the fact that pay is relative. If coding becomes a $20k job for the average factory worker, then those needing real talent might be willing to pay as much as double for it. You are young, telented and still enthusiastic about the biz, and so far it's treating you well. However, life is changing more rapidly today than ever before. If you think that the reality you see today bears any resemblance to what you'll see when you're 50, I think you're in for some unpleasant surprises. I don't advocate change just for the sake of change, but I do encourage people to think at least ten years ahead. If I'm wrong, then you'll still have a happy life at 50 slinging code and the effort will have cost you little. However, if I'm right and you're not prepared, you're screwed. That's even more embarrassing when it's avoidable. :-D
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
modified on Tuesday, July 7, 2009 12:44 PM
Christopher Duncan wrote:
you've never experienced the mind numbing life of working in an actual factory.
I have worked in a steel plant if that helps. ;P
Christopher Duncan wrote:
ife at 50 slinging code
Whatever the industry trend, I don't think I will be slinging code 50 (or even after next 5 years). Simply because I will not have mental capacity to write binary search algorithms. I will rather try to "own" a "software factory".
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Well, in fairness, it's never comfortable for people to have what they're doing for a living compared to a menial, minimum wage job. I think many mistakenly believe I'm being demeaning with such a reference when in fact I'm just trying to alert them to career dangers that lurk just over the horizon. 6 figure gigs have continued to be around even after the crash, although it's easier to get as a contractor than a perm employee. However, what I've seen is a significant decline in contract positions, forcing people to take the lower paying perm gigs. And ultimately, what the perm gigs pay will decrease over time. Of course, career change is nothing new to me. I'm on my fourth career as we speak, and I'm only 51. Imagine how many I'll have under my belt by the time I'm 100. :-D
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
Christopher Duncan wrote:
Well, in fairness, it's never comfortable for people to have what they're doing for a living compared to a menial, minimum wage job.
Exactly. I think Mark N summed it up perfectly - commoditisation.
Christopher Duncan wrote:
in fact I'm just trying to alert them to career dangers that lurk just over the horizon.
And some subtle advertising ;P (just joking, dude)
Christopher Duncan wrote:
However, what I've seen is a significant decline in contract positions, forcing people to take the lower paying perm gigs.
That is entirely at odds with what I would expect and have been hearing; in fact, I can even see it in my own small way. People get sacked and are forced to take short-term contract work. Maybe the dichotomy is due to contractors in the West being paid more than employees, while here it may be the other way round?
Christopher Duncan wrote:
Imagine how many I'll have under my belt by the time I'm 100.
I notice you were quick to correct the sentence, but I noticed the mistake right away ;P Now if I could only turn this nit-picking into an employable skill :-\
Cheers, Vikram. (Proud to have finally cracked a CCC!)
Recent activities: TV series: Friends, season 10 Books: Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Carpe Diem.
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Christopher Duncan wrote:
Well, in fairness, it's never comfortable for people to have what they're doing for a living compared to a menial, minimum wage job.
Exactly. I think Mark N summed it up perfectly - commoditisation.
Christopher Duncan wrote:
in fact I'm just trying to alert them to career dangers that lurk just over the horizon.
And some subtle advertising ;P (just joking, dude)
Christopher Duncan wrote:
However, what I've seen is a significant decline in contract positions, forcing people to take the lower paying perm gigs.
That is entirely at odds with what I would expect and have been hearing; in fact, I can even see it in my own small way. People get sacked and are forced to take short-term contract work. Maybe the dichotomy is due to contractors in the West being paid more than employees, while here it may be the other way round?
Christopher Duncan wrote:
Imagine how many I'll have under my belt by the time I'm 100.
I notice you were quick to correct the sentence, but I noticed the mistake right away ;P Now if I could only turn this nit-picking into an employable skill :-\
Cheers, Vikram. (Proud to have finally cracked a CCC!)
Recent activities: TV series: Friends, season 10 Books: Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Carpe Diem.
Subtle??? No one's ever accused me of that before... :-D
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
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Christopher Duncan wrote:
you've never experienced the mind numbing life of working in an actual factory.
I have worked in a steel plant if that helps. ;P
Christopher Duncan wrote:
ife at 50 slinging code
Whatever the industry trend, I don't think I will be slinging code 50 (or even after next 5 years). Simply because I will not have mental capacity to write binary search algorithms. I will rather try to "own" a "software factory".
Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
I will rather try to "own" a "software factory".
Entrepreneurship - that's the American way! :-D
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
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Except that companies have become accustomed to paying $5 hour and the cost of living in most areas won't allow a person to accept that rate. I completely agree, and have seen it repeatedly, that it works out to be more cost effective to hire local talent. It's done right, with good quality and more responsive to the client needs rather than multiple iterations over longer periods producing poorly designed and written code.
only two letters away from being an asset
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It’s a full scale copy of the factory in Germany. The first airplane is already out of the assembly line. I’m behind the fricking Websence in work, so if you find a link to this news with more details you could place it here.
The narrow specialist in the broad sense of the word is a complete idiot in the narrow sense of the word. Advertise here – minimum three posts per day are guaranteed.
Airbus, now featuring lead! :wtf:
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Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
I will rather try to "own" a "software factory".
Entrepreneurship - that's the American way! :-D
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
Christopher Duncan wrote:
that's the American way
I thought it was Ponzi schemes and promiscuity ;P
only two letters away from being an asset
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Christopher Duncan wrote:
that's the American way
I thought it was Ponzi schemes and promiscuity ;P
only two letters away from being an asset
Remind me not to buy stock in any companies you start up. :-D
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
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Mark Nischalke wrote:
cost of living in most areas
That'll drop too, if things get bad enough. I'm currently considering moving further into the Great Plains...
The reverse would be the wrath of grapes, which Playboy's Unabashed Dictionary once used as the definition of a hangover. :)
Christopher Duncan www.PracticalUSA.com Author of The Career Programmer and Unite the Tribes In the US? Explore our Career Coaching.
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Well India is the major player in outsourcing and majority of poor questions in the forums are undeniably from India.
Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
Well India is the major player in outsourcing and majority of poor questions in the forums are undeniably from India.
I do not think that the two statements are unconnected.
Henry Minute Do not read medical books! You could die of a misprint. - Mark Twain Girl: (staring) "Why do you need an icy cucumber?" “I want to report a fraud. The government is lying to us all.”
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Rama Krishna Vavilala wrote:
that most of the programmers in India are like
I don't recall anyone specifically mentioning Indian developers. The topic was outsourcing in general, whether that is Indian, Chinese, Russian, or Martian. The fact that you seemingly equate outsourcing and poor development with Indian developers is telling of the situation. I've work with several teams and people from various nations and no one has a monopoly on poor developers, whether outsourced, in-house, or H1B
only two letters away from being an asset
Mark Nischalke wrote:
whether that is Indian, Chinese, Russian, or Martian.
Maybe it's me, but Martian outsourcing is definetely out! The people at NASA might have been ok controlling Spirit, or whatever it was called, but remote desktop into source control and live code reviews...definetely a deal breaker
Opium is my business. The bridge mean more traffic. More traffic mean more money. More money mean more power. Speed is important in business. Time is money. You said opium was money. Money is Money. Well then, what is time again? icalburner
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I have no doubt that this is true, and I'm always at pains in discussing this, to state what is hopefully obvious - the number of bad programmers we see from India, is not a representation of all Indian programmers, although it is mostly a representation of how much financial incentive the West has given people there to take jobs they cannot do. I have to say, the one experience I've had with this, I hired about four times, through different 'rentacoder' type sites, and even when I took the highest bid, I never found anyone who was remotely up to the standards I hoped for. Conversely, I've done remote work with a number of people, most of whom have been Indian, and when I've hired from people who live in the US, I've always had a great experience and a great final product. The perception that people have in a place like CP, is going to be different from the knowledge of someone who has been to India. I do have a friend who managed a team there for Sun, and my overall feeling was that the big difference is, if your company manages the office, and can fly there to interview/hire people, you will get the cream of the crop. If you get someone bidding to do 2 months work, you get the dregs.
Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista. Read my blog to find out how I've worked around bugs in Microsoft tools and frameworks.
My expereinces have been very similar. Though I've seen bad coders homegrown as well (and godawful architects, but that is another story entirely), sadly every outsourced developer I've worked with has been undertrained, underbid, copypasta fanatics, and often involved in some shady practices (we had to slice a dev team by 33% because we found our "mid-level developers" we phone interviewed couldn't write simple C# code or valid XML). As long as the majority of outsourcing companies are taking advantage of the West's desire for cheap labor (all programmers are the same right?) and are cranking people out with inflated titles and fabricated knowledge to mqake the sale, this will continue. I hope Christian's right about the gap closing, but I know I couldn't live on the $30k/yr they were paying my outsourced peer, so that gap's gonna have to do a fair amount of closing on the upside.