Ever wonder if the media thinks for itself?
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fat_boy wrote:
The reason I gave the google searchlink is because every single site ran the story with almost exactly the same same text, that was my point, the media just reprint word for word some release, including the headline, bu some scientific (special interest) group.
That's how all the news outlets work... The Associated Press (Or similar) releases a story... The major papers pick it up on their feeds... If they aren't giving it any special attention, they just post it verbatim. The blogs just syndicate what they see in the major papers, so that'll be verbatim too. It's not some vast conspiracy... It's just how data travels.
fat_boy wrote:
OK, as it turns out the story itself is all about using computer models to prove a theory. Whcih of course is junk science because they can be programmed to prove any damn thing you want, such as Martians being behind extreme rain.
Just because people program the models, doesn't mean they already know what the results will be. You tell the model the "rules" of how things interact... You feed it the inputs as you've observed through sensors and the like... Then you start the model and see how it all balances out. Haven't you ever built a simulation? I played around with genetic programming a few years back... Made an RPG-style dungeon thing... Generated a maze and put a bunch of stupid AIs in it... Gave them "DNA" that determined their behavior and stats... Set the rules for movement, combat (Two warring factions), and reproduction (Male + Female in the same square + Survive until birth while female has combat penalties)... I had no idea what would happen... I just set the rules, turned it on, and watched the little colored dots moving through the maze... In the end, evolution outsmarted me... I expected them to develop a good mix of "stats" and "skills" for combat, maybe figure out how to protect the breeders, etc... But within a few dozen generations, all they did was wander randomly until they bumped into the opposite gender, then sat there constantly reproducing... And if they DID run into a combat situation, both sides would immediately run away instead of attacking.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the GuardiansIan Shlasko wrote:
all they did was wander randomly until they bumped into the opposite gender, then sat there constantly reproducing... And if they DID run into a combat situation, both sides would immediately run away instead of attacking.
Actually, sounds lke you managed to model the French. Hmm, think you might have stumpled onto somethign there, ever thought of ppublishing? :)
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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Ian Shlasko wrote:
I started doing some research, and came to the conclusion that AGW is probably correct, and only the degree is in question (How much will it warm? What effects will it have and when?)
Then we are in accord, and in accord with many scientists. We will see some warming, but not as much as the alarmists say, not by a long stretch. So, how much? Well, Lindzen says 1.2 degrees at the most based purely on physical principles. As for measured evidence, well, there isnt any. Its impossible to measure any increase due to CO2 against natural variability. And thsts a fact. So, where does that leave us? CO2 is good for plants, and thus people. A dgree of temperature rise will only bring us back to the MWP/holcene maximum. So why limit its production?
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
fat_boy wrote:
So, how much? Well, Lindzen says 1.2 degrees at the most based purely on physical principles. As for measured evidence, well, there isnt any. Its impossible to measure any increase due to CO2 against natural variability. And thsts a fact.
The temperature increase is only the initial effect... Changing the amount of energy in the atmosphere can cause all sorts of adverse effects, and THOSE are the ones we can't predict accurately. More severe weather is likely, along with some shifting climate patterns. The question is where and how much.
fat_boy wrote:
So, where does that leave us? CO2 is good for plants, and thus people
http://www.skepticalscience.com/CO2-is-Good-for-Plants-Another-Red-Herring-in-the-Climate-Change-Debate.html[^]
fat_boy wrote:
A dgree of temperature rise will only bring us back to the MWP/holcene maximum. So why limit its production?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period.htm[^]
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
Ian Shlasko wrote:
all they did was wander randomly until they bumped into the opposite gender, then sat there constantly reproducing... And if they DID run into a combat situation, both sides would immediately run away instead of attacking.
Actually, sounds lke you managed to model the French. Hmm, think you might have stumpled onto somethign there, ever thought of ppublishing? :)
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
:laugh:
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
fat_boy wrote:
So, how much? Well, Lindzen says 1.2 degrees at the most based purely on physical principles. As for measured evidence, well, there isnt any. Its impossible to measure any increase due to CO2 against natural variability. And thsts a fact.
The temperature increase is only the initial effect... Changing the amount of energy in the atmosphere can cause all sorts of adverse effects, and THOSE are the ones we can't predict accurately. More severe weather is likely, along with some shifting climate patterns. The question is where and how much.
fat_boy wrote:
So, where does that leave us? CO2 is good for plants, and thus people
http://www.skepticalscience.com/CO2-is-Good-for-Plants-Another-Red-Herring-in-the-Climate-Change-Debate.html[^]
fat_boy wrote:
A dgree of temperature rise will only bring us back to the MWP/holcene maximum. So why limit its production?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period.htm[^]
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)We have been through this before, and pulling a cople of links off the internet that fly in the face of established science does not constitute any kind of refutation. Fact. C02 is good for plants. Period. Farmers have ben using it for decades OK. Fact. THe last 10,000 years, this interglacial, has seen a steady cooling from temperatures a few degrees higher than today.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
can cause all sorts of adverse effects
Ian Shlasko wrote:
More severe weather is likely
Look how you have gvone from 'can', to 'is likely'. Dont you see a problem with your logic here? Of course the fact that we have lived through, and in fact human society evolved, at higher temperatures is amp[le evidence that nothing untoward will happen if we regain those temperatures. I am not interested in debating this any more Ian. You know that I have the weight of established science on my side, you have nothing but alarmist gueswork on yours.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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We have been through this before, and pulling a cople of links off the internet that fly in the face of established science does not constitute any kind of refutation. Fact. C02 is good for plants. Period. Farmers have ben using it for decades OK. Fact. THe last 10,000 years, this interglacial, has seen a steady cooling from temperatures a few degrees higher than today.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
can cause all sorts of adverse effects
Ian Shlasko wrote:
More severe weather is likely
Look how you have gvone from 'can', to 'is likely'. Dont you see a problem with your logic here? Of course the fact that we have lived through, and in fact human society evolved, at higher temperatures is amp[le evidence that nothing untoward will happen if we regain those temperatures. I am not interested in debating this any more Ian. You know that I have the weight of established science on my side, you have nothing but alarmist gueswork on yours.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
fat_boy wrote:
We have been through this before
Which is why I'd rather just post a link instead of going through the same argument again... Seems only fair, after your repetitive postings of the same boring anti-GW sites.
fat_boy wrote:
Look how you have gvone from 'can', to 'is likely'. Dont you see a problem with your logic here?
No, because as I said, we don't know the exact effects.
fat_boy wrote:
Of course the fact that we have lived through, and in fact human society evolved, at higher temperatures is amp[le evidence that nothing untoward will happen if we regain those temperatures.
http://skepticalscience.com/medieval-warm-period.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
I am not interested in debating this any more Ian. You know that I have the weight of established science on my side, you have nothing but alarmist gueswork on yours.
There's that "You know I'm right" argument again... Except in all this time, you haven't proved your side at all. You've just tried to discredit anyone who disagrees with you.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
fat_boy wrote:
We have been through this before
Which is why I'd rather just post a link instead of going through the same argument again... Seems only fair, after your repetitive postings of the same boring anti-GW sites.
fat_boy wrote:
Look how you have gvone from 'can', to 'is likely'. Dont you see a problem with your logic here?
No, because as I said, we don't know the exact effects.
fat_boy wrote:
Of course the fact that we have lived through, and in fact human society evolved, at higher temperatures is amp[le evidence that nothing untoward will happen if we regain those temperatures.
http://skepticalscience.com/medieval-warm-period.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
I am not interested in debating this any more Ian. You know that I have the weight of established science on my side, you have nothing but alarmist gueswork on yours.
There's that "You know I'm right" argument again... Except in all this time, you haven't proved your side at all. You've just tried to discredit anyone who disagrees with you.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)MWP? Sure, there are lots of alarmists sites that will say its only European in extent. Who cares? I said over the last 10000 years, there is bore hole data from all round the world that shopws that temperatures have declined steadilly and that it has in that time been 2 or so degrees warmer. A time when human civilisation developed. Therefore we know that higher temperatures in the order of 1.2 degrees, which is what doubling CO2 will do theoretically, are not a problem for us. We also know that CO2 is good for plants. Yes, I a sure you can find alarmist sites that say its not so, but this is bull because farmers have been using CO2 for inctreased crop yields for decades. So, like I said, you have nothing but alarmist crap to support your position that CO2 is dangerous. I have decades of established science that says it isnt. And, while all this is going on, tell me, just what HAS the effect of adding 30% CO2 been? (Assuming that that is what mankind has aded so far) WHats it done? Wheres the chaos its suposed to cause, according to you? Where is the massive destruction of human society that you fear? Its not happened Ian, and its not going to happen if we add another 30% and another 30%. (Because quite simp;y the effect of CO2 is one of diminishing returns and we have already added enough to have had the majority of any supposed effect). Oh, and also, that tenperature rise is thoeoretical. NASA erecently suggetsed that CO2 in the upper atmosphere may cause cooling because of the greater distance between mollecules in he atmosphere thus its ability to turn kinetic into IR radiaiton becomes important. However, I am sure you will know of this too since you will have investigated this topic as thoroughly as I have. :)
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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MWP? Sure, there are lots of alarmists sites that will say its only European in extent. Who cares? I said over the last 10000 years, there is bore hole data from all round the world that shopws that temperatures have declined steadilly and that it has in that time been 2 or so degrees warmer. A time when human civilisation developed. Therefore we know that higher temperatures in the order of 1.2 degrees, which is what doubling CO2 will do theoretically, are not a problem for us. We also know that CO2 is good for plants. Yes, I a sure you can find alarmist sites that say its not so, but this is bull because farmers have been using CO2 for inctreased crop yields for decades. So, like I said, you have nothing but alarmist crap to support your position that CO2 is dangerous. I have decades of established science that says it isnt. And, while all this is going on, tell me, just what HAS the effect of adding 30% CO2 been? (Assuming that that is what mankind has aded so far) WHats it done? Wheres the chaos its suposed to cause, according to you? Where is the massive destruction of human society that you fear? Its not happened Ian, and its not going to happen if we add another 30% and another 30%. (Because quite simp;y the effect of CO2 is one of diminishing returns and we have already added enough to have had the majority of any supposed effect). Oh, and also, that tenperature rise is thoeoretical. NASA erecently suggetsed that CO2 in the upper atmosphere may cause cooling because of the greater distance between mollecules in he atmosphere thus its ability to turn kinetic into IR radiaiton becomes important. However, I am sure you will know of this too since you will have investigated this topic as thoroughly as I have. :)
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
fat_boy wrote:
MWP? Sure, there are lots of alarmists sites that will say its only European in extent. Who cares? I said over the last 10000 years, there is bore hole data from all round the world that shopws that temperatures have declined steadilly and that it has in that time been 2 or so degrees warmer. A time when human civilisation developed. Therefore we know that higher temperatures in the order of 1.2 degrees, which is what doubling CO2 will do theoretically, are not a problem for us. We also know that CO2 is good for plants. Yes, I a sure you can find alarmist sites that say its not so, but this is bull because farmers have been using CO2 for inctreased crop yields for decades.
http://skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
And, while all this is going on, tell me, just what HAS the effect of adding 30% CO2 been? (Assuming that that is what mankind has aded so far) WHats it done? Wheres the chaos its suposed to cause, according to you? Where is the massive destruction of human society that you fear? Its not happened Ian, and its not going to happen if we add another 30% and another 30%. (Because quite simp;y the effect of CO2 is one of diminishing returns and we have already added enough to have had the majority of any supposed effect).
http://skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/saturated-co2-effect.htm[
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fat_boy wrote:
MWP? Sure, there are lots of alarmists sites that will say its only European in extent. Who cares? I said over the last 10000 years, there is bore hole data from all round the world that shopws that temperatures have declined steadilly and that it has in that time been 2 or so degrees warmer. A time when human civilisation developed. Therefore we know that higher temperatures in the order of 1.2 degrees, which is what doubling CO2 will do theoretically, are not a problem for us. We also know that CO2 is good for plants. Yes, I a sure you can find alarmist sites that say its not so, but this is bull because farmers have been using CO2 for inctreased crop yields for decades.
http://skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
And, while all this is going on, tell me, just what HAS the effect of adding 30% CO2 been? (Assuming that that is what mankind has aded so far) WHats it done? Wheres the chaos its suposed to cause, according to you? Where is the massive destruction of human society that you fear? Its not happened Ian, and its not going to happen if we add another 30% and another 30%. (Because quite simp;y the effect of CO2 is one of diminishing returns and we have already added enough to have had the majority of any supposed effect).
http://skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/saturated-co2-effect.htm[
Links: #1 Well, as I said, its not only Greenland ice core data, but also Vostok. Got a refutation for that? Other temperature reconstructions based on proxies also show a similar picture so it is global in extent showing temperatures 2 degrees or so warmer (some show more by the way so 2 is conservative). #2 Unscientific. Studies show that a 2 degree fall kills more people than a 2 degree rise. #3 Not disputed. #4 States the effect of extra CO2 is increaslingly weak. Tries to conter this by saying that the rate at which we are producing CO2 is increasing, thus negating this. This is of course logically eroneous. It just means we will reach the state where adding extra CO2 has almost no effect sooner. #5 States that CO2 is not yet saturated. This is correct. #6 Fails to state that direct evidence of CO2 causing warming has been found. It states it should be found in theory, that lab experiments have fond it, and that outgoing IR at certain frequencies has been affected. SO this totally backs up what I said that no evidence to data has been found that CO2 causes warming. (Because the climate is more complex than we understand and its sugested CO2 causes cooling in the upper atmosphere so the net efect might be zero) Its an interesting site, sceptical science. As its name sugests it sets out to be sceptical, but of course it isnt. It is reasonably acurate though. It doesnt lie, it just words things carefully and avoids certain subjects (as mentioned above).
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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fat_boy wrote:
MWP? Sure, there are lots of alarmists sites that will say its only European in extent. Who cares? I said over the last 10000 years, there is bore hole data from all round the world that shopws that temperatures have declined steadilly and that it has in that time been 2 or so degrees warmer. A time when human civilisation developed. Therefore we know that higher temperatures in the order of 1.2 degrees, which is what doubling CO2 will do theoretically, are not a problem for us. We also know that CO2 is good for plants. Yes, I a sure you can find alarmist sites that say its not so, but this is bull because farmers have been using CO2 for inctreased crop yields for decades.
http://skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
And, while all this is going on, tell me, just what HAS the effect of adding 30% CO2 been? (Assuming that that is what mankind has aded so far) WHats it done? Wheres the chaos its suposed to cause, according to you? Where is the massive destruction of human society that you fear? Its not happened Ian, and its not going to happen if we add another 30% and another 30%. (Because quite simp;y the effect of CO2 is one of diminishing returns and we have already added enough to have had the majority of any supposed effect).
http://skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/exponential-increase-CO2-warming.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/saturated-co2-effect.htm[
And so I relooked at that web site. It seems to be less accurate than in the past. I dug abit deeper and found that this body is behind that web site: Vision: A peaceful, just and sustainable world community as called for in the UN Charter. Mission: The UU-UNO has a two-fold mission: * We engage in the work of the UN to advance a peaceful, just, sustainable and pluralistic world community that promotes human rights. * We engage and inspire Unitarian Universalists and others to support and participate in this work. Share and Enjoy: [^] So basically a non scientific body whose aim is human rights, peace, and Universalism? Just look at the language used: http://climate.uu-uno.org/topics/view/23695/[^] http://climate.uu-uno.org/topics/view/23695/#Disturbing_Elements[^] This is not mature scientific debate, this is politicised, clearly their use of right wing, surely a term that has no place in science, indicates this? "Bottom Line: Quacks, Tobacco, Right-Wing Think Tanks, and Contrarians" is this any basis from which to discuss whether CO2 wil warm by 1 or 3 degrees? WHether CO2 at 600, or 1000 PPM is beneficial for crop produciton? Before you use the scepticalscicnce.com site again just remember the nature of those behind it.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
modified on Thursday, February 24, 2011 4:23 AM
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Links: #1 Well, as I said, its not only Greenland ice core data, but also Vostok. Got a refutation for that? Other temperature reconstructions based on proxies also show a similar picture so it is global in extent showing temperatures 2 degrees or so warmer (some show more by the way so 2 is conservative). #2 Unscientific. Studies show that a 2 degree fall kills more people than a 2 degree rise. #3 Not disputed. #4 States the effect of extra CO2 is increaslingly weak. Tries to conter this by saying that the rate at which we are producing CO2 is increasing, thus negating this. This is of course logically eroneous. It just means we will reach the state where adding extra CO2 has almost no effect sooner. #5 States that CO2 is not yet saturated. This is correct. #6 Fails to state that direct evidence of CO2 causing warming has been found. It states it should be found in theory, that lab experiments have fond it, and that outgoing IR at certain frequencies has been affected. SO this totally backs up what I said that no evidence to data has been found that CO2 causes warming. (Because the climate is more complex than we understand and its sugested CO2 causes cooling in the upper atmosphere so the net efect might be zero) Its an interesting site, sceptical science. As its name sugests it sets out to be sceptical, but of course it isnt. It is reasonably acurate though. It doesnt lie, it just words things carefully and avoids certain subjects (as mentioned above).
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
fat_boy wrote:
#1 Well, as I said, its not only Greenland ice core data, but also Vostok. Got a refutation for that? Other temperature reconstructions based on proxies also show a similar picture so it is global in extent showing temperatures 2 degrees or so warmer (some show more by the way so 2 is conservative).
Sure, Vostok is mentioned here[^]
fat_boy wrote:
#2 Unscientific. Studies show that a 2 degree fall kills more people than a 2 degree rise.
Strawman. No one is arguing that global cooling would be harmless. Only that warming would be more harmful than current levels.
fat_boy wrote:
#4 States the effect of extra CO2 is increaslingly weak. Tries to conter this by saying that the rate at which we are producing CO2 is increasing, thus negating this. This is of course logically eroneous. It just means we will reach the state where adding extra CO2 has almost no effect sooner.
And what point are you trying to make? That it's ok because it's happening faster?
fat_boy wrote:
#6 Fails to state that direct evidence of CO2 causing warming has been found. It states it should be found in theory, that lab experiments have fond it, and that outgoing IR at certain frequencies has been affected. SO this totally backs up what I said that no evidence to data has been found that CO2 causes warming. (Because the climate is more complex than we understand and its sugested CO2 causes cooling in the upper atmosphere so the net efect might be zero)
And you determine that net effect by taking empirical measurements and seeing how they correlate to CO2 levels... Which is what was done. Hey, look... They match. What a shocker.
fat_boy wrote:
Its an interesting site, sceptical science. As its name sugests it sets out to be sceptical, but of course it isnt. It is reasonably acurate though. It doesnt lie, it just words things carefully and avoids certain subjects (as mentioned above).
Being skeptical is good. A good scientist should always be skeptical of all viewpoints, his own and those of others. You seem to be equating skepticism with
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fat_boy wrote:
#1 Well, as I said, its not only Greenland ice core data, but also Vostok. Got a refutation for that? Other temperature reconstructions based on proxies also show a similar picture so it is global in extent showing temperatures 2 degrees or so warmer (some show more by the way so 2 is conservative).
Sure, Vostok is mentioned here[^]
fat_boy wrote:
#2 Unscientific. Studies show that a 2 degree fall kills more people than a 2 degree rise.
Strawman. No one is arguing that global cooling would be harmless. Only that warming would be more harmful than current levels.
fat_boy wrote:
#4 States the effect of extra CO2 is increaslingly weak. Tries to conter this by saying that the rate at which we are producing CO2 is increasing, thus negating this. This is of course logically eroneous. It just means we will reach the state where adding extra CO2 has almost no effect sooner.
And what point are you trying to make? That it's ok because it's happening faster?
fat_boy wrote:
#6 Fails to state that direct evidence of CO2 causing warming has been found. It states it should be found in theory, that lab experiments have fond it, and that outgoing IR at certain frequencies has been affected. SO this totally backs up what I said that no evidence to data has been found that CO2 causes warming. (Because the climate is more complex than we understand and its sugested CO2 causes cooling in the upper atmosphere so the net efect might be zero)
And you determine that net effect by taking empirical measurements and seeing how they correlate to CO2 levels... Which is what was done. Hey, look... They match. What a shocker.
fat_boy wrote:
Its an interesting site, sceptical science. As its name sugests it sets out to be sceptical, but of course it isnt. It is reasonably acurate though. It doesnt lie, it just words things carefully and avoids certain subjects (as mentioned above).
Being skeptical is good. A good scientist should always be skeptical of all viewpoints, his own and those of others. You seem to be equating skepticism with
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Sure, Vostok is mentioned here[^]
And it clearly shows the decline in temperature over the last 10000 years.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Strawman. No one is arguing that global cooling would be harmless. Only that warming would be more harmful than current levels.
Except that it IS getting colder. See above.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
And what point are you trying to make?
That their refutation is spurious, clearly.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
And you determine that net effect by taking empirical measurements and seeing how they correlate to CO2 levels... Which is what was done. Hey, look... They match. What a shocker.
As I said, 'might'. I am not calculating anything, just following the science bwecause what surprises me is that CO2 is supposed to warm, and we should have seen a fair bit already, but cant identify CO2 based warming distinct from natural variation.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Skepticism means withholding judgement until you have concrete data...
Yes, see above. There isnt yet any empiricle data that shows CO2 causes warming.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
-
And so I relooked at that web site. It seems to be less accurate than in the past. I dug abit deeper and found that this body is behind that web site: Vision: A peaceful, just and sustainable world community as called for in the UN Charter. Mission: The UU-UNO has a two-fold mission: * We engage in the work of the UN to advance a peaceful, just, sustainable and pluralistic world community that promotes human rights. * We engage and inspire Unitarian Universalists and others to support and participate in this work. Share and Enjoy: [^] So basically a non scientific body whose aim is human rights, peace, and Universalism? Just look at the language used: http://climate.uu-uno.org/topics/view/23695/[^] http://climate.uu-uno.org/topics/view/23695/#Disturbing_Elements[^] This is not mature scientific debate, this is politicised, clearly their use of right wing, surely a term that has no place in science, indicates this? "Bottom Line: Quacks, Tobacco, Right-Wing Think Tanks, and Contrarians" is this any basis from which to discuss whether CO2 wil warm by 1 or 3 degrees? WHether CO2 at 600, or 1000 PPM is beneficial for crop produciton? Before you use the scepticalscicnce.com site again just remember the nature of those behind it.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
modified on Thursday, February 24, 2011 4:23 AM
fat_boy wrote:
And so I relooked at that web site. It seems to be less accurate than in the past. I dug abit deeper and found that this body is behind that web site: Vision:
Funny, the about page[^] gives credit to a physicist from Australia, with all of its funding coming from Paypal donations. Where do you see this connection to UU-UNO?
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
fat_boy wrote:
And so I relooked at that web site. It seems to be less accurate than in the past. I dug abit deeper and found that this body is behind that web site: Vision:
Funny, the about page[^] gives credit to a physicist from Australia, with all of its funding coming from Paypal donations. Where do you see this connection to UU-UNO?
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php[^] These are the arguments you used against me, At the bottom it says "Many thanks to Dr. Jan Dash, Director of the UU-UNO's Climate Portal for writing many of the one line responses in 'What the Science Says', with some edits by John Cook." SO I had a look, and I am sure you will agree, its a heavilly politicised grop.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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Ian Shlasko wrote:
Sure, Vostok is mentioned here[^]
And it clearly shows the decline in temperature over the last 10000 years.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Strawman. No one is arguing that global cooling would be harmless. Only that warming would be more harmful than current levels.
Except that it IS getting colder. See above.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
And what point are you trying to make?
That their refutation is spurious, clearly.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
And you determine that net effect by taking empirical measurements and seeing how they correlate to CO2 levels... Which is what was done. Hey, look... They match. What a shocker.
As I said, 'might'. I am not calculating anything, just following the science bwecause what surprises me is that CO2 is supposed to warm, and we should have seen a fair bit already, but cant identify CO2 based warming distinct from natural variation.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
Skepticism means withholding judgement until you have concrete data...
Yes, see above. There isnt yet any empiricle data that shows CO2 causes warming.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
fat_boy wrote:
And it clearly shows the decline in temperature over the last 10000 years.
Try actually reading that linked article.
fat_boy wrote:
As I said, 'might'. I am not calculating anything, just following the science bwecause what surprises me is that CO2 is supposed to warm, and we should have seen a fair bit already, but cant identify CO2 based warming distinct from natural variation.
That's only because you look at the CO2-based warming and claim that it's natural variation.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php[^] These are the arguments you used against me, At the bottom it says "Many thanks to Dr. Jan Dash, Director of the UU-UNO's Climate Portal for writing many of the one line responses in 'What the Science Says', with some edits by John Cook." SO I had a look, and I am sure you will agree, its a heavilly politicised grop.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
Read what you just quoted... The "one line responses". He isn't giving credit for the actual articles, merely the brief statements that appear at the top. Reading comprehension is your friend.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
fat_boy wrote:
And it clearly shows the decline in temperature over the last 10000 years.
Try actually reading that linked article.
fat_boy wrote:
As I said, 'might'. I am not calculating anything, just following the science bwecause what surprises me is that CO2 is supposed to warm, and we should have seen a fair bit already, but cant identify CO2 based warming distinct from natural variation.
That's only because you look at the CO2-based warming and claim that it's natural variation.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
Try actually reading that linked article.
FS Ian, I did read it, it said nithig about the last 10000 years NOT cooling. Look at the graph Ian, you can clearly see its cooling for yourself.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
That's only because you look at the CO2-based warming and claim that it's natural variation.
OK, time for a bit of classic, controlled experiement here. As Dr Phil Jones has stated the pre war and post 70s warming periods are similar in magnitude and extent. So, whats the difference between the two warming periods? Both occur at a similar period in earths history, oceanic currents are the same, the sun is the same, ot hasnt gone supernova or anything, in fact broadly similar conditions. Except for CO2. Pre war there wasnt mch, post 70s there is. And what effect did that CO2 have thats noticably, and measurably different in the latter one? Hmm, well, kinda none in fact. Thats why its hard to detect CO2 based warming Ian. All scientists know this, YES it SHOULD warm, but its damned difficult finding empiricle evidence of it. (Here is an interesting study: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/temp/angell/angell.html[^] "near-surface air temperature warmed by approximately 0.18°C/decade, the 850-300 mb tropospheric layer warmed by about 0.08°C/decade, the 300-100 mb tropopause layer temperature cooled by approximately -0.23°C/decade (driven mainly by large changes in the Polar zones), and the 100-50 mb low-stratospheric layer cooled by about -0.60°C/decade." Now, this study is used by a pro AGW site, but a couple of thigs are of interest. As you know GH gas theory states that the CO2 in the troposphere will trap heat and reradiate it back to the surface. This means the troposphere has to be getting warmer, at least as warm as the surface if not warmer. This report shows it isnt. In fact the surface is twice as warm as the troposphere. This tends to imply the near surface warming measured isnt due to CO2. Secondly, it has found that the upper atmosphere has cooled. Remember what I was saying about the recent NAA research that suggests CO2 has a cooling effect in the upper atmosphere because of its ability to turn kinetic energy into IR radiation? This
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Read what you just quoted... The "one line responses". He isn't giving credit for the actual articles, merely the brief statements that appear at the top. Reading comprehension is your friend.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)If you look again you will find those one line responses are at the head of each article. But yes, I will acept you point that this UN organisation is not solely responsible for the content of the website.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
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Ian Shlasko wrote:
Try actually reading that linked article.
FS Ian, I did read it, it said nithig about the last 10000 years NOT cooling. Look at the graph Ian, you can clearly see its cooling for yourself.
Ian Shlasko wrote:
That's only because you look at the CO2-based warming and claim that it's natural variation.
OK, time for a bit of classic, controlled experiement here. As Dr Phil Jones has stated the pre war and post 70s warming periods are similar in magnitude and extent. So, whats the difference between the two warming periods? Both occur at a similar period in earths history, oceanic currents are the same, the sun is the same, ot hasnt gone supernova or anything, in fact broadly similar conditions. Except for CO2. Pre war there wasnt mch, post 70s there is. And what effect did that CO2 have thats noticably, and measurably different in the latter one? Hmm, well, kinda none in fact. Thats why its hard to detect CO2 based warming Ian. All scientists know this, YES it SHOULD warm, but its damned difficult finding empiricle evidence of it. (Here is an interesting study: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/temp/angell/angell.html[^] "near-surface air temperature warmed by approximately 0.18°C/decade, the 850-300 mb tropospheric layer warmed by about 0.08°C/decade, the 300-100 mb tropopause layer temperature cooled by approximately -0.23°C/decade (driven mainly by large changes in the Polar zones), and the 100-50 mb low-stratospheric layer cooled by about -0.60°C/decade." Now, this study is used by a pro AGW site, but a couple of thigs are of interest. As you know GH gas theory states that the CO2 in the troposphere will trap heat and reradiate it back to the surface. This means the troposphere has to be getting warmer, at least as warm as the surface if not warmer. This report shows it isnt. In fact the surface is twice as warm as the troposphere. This tends to imply the near surface warming measured isnt due to CO2. Secondly, it has found that the upper atmosphere has cooled. Remember what I was saying about the recent NAA research that suggests CO2 has a cooling effect in the upper atmosphere because of its ability to turn kinetic energy into IR radiation? This
fat_boy wrote:
FS Ian, I did read it, it said nithig about the last 10000 years NOT cooling. Look at the graph Ian, you can clearly see its cooling for yourself.
Maybe you missed the part where it says that CO2 has reversed that trend, and that it's no longer cooling.
fat_boy wrote:
So, whats the difference between the two warming periods? Both occur at a similar period in earths history, oceanic currents are the same, the sun is the same, ot hasnt gone supernova or anything, in fact broadly similar conditions. Except for CO2. Pre war there wasnt mch, post 70s there is.
http://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-early-20th-century.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
Thats why its hard to detect CO2 based warming Ian. All scientists know this, YES it SHOULD warm, but its damned difficult finding empiricle evidence of it.
http://skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
This means the troposphere has to be getting warmer, at least as warm as the surface if not warmer. This report shows it isnt
http://skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/tropospheric-hot-spot.htm[^]
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
If you look again you will find those one line responses are at the head of each article. But yes, I will acept you point that this UN organisation is not solely responsible for the content of the website.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
Yes, the one-line responses are at the top of each... But those are quick summaries, not the entire rebuttals. First the rebuttals were written, and then that guy came along and said something like "Hey, this would be a lot easier to understand if there were quick summaries," and he contributed them. That has zero effect on the credibility or bias of the actual articles.
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels) -
fat_boy wrote:
FS Ian, I did read it, it said nithig about the last 10000 years NOT cooling. Look at the graph Ian, you can clearly see its cooling for yourself.
Maybe you missed the part where it says that CO2 has reversed that trend, and that it's no longer cooling.
fat_boy wrote:
So, whats the difference between the two warming periods? Both occur at a similar period in earths history, oceanic currents are the same, the sun is the same, ot hasnt gone supernova or anything, in fact broadly similar conditions. Except for CO2. Pre war there wasnt mch, post 70s there is.
http://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-early-20th-century.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
Thats why its hard to detect CO2 based warming Ian. All scientists know this, YES it SHOULD warm, but its damned difficult finding empiricle evidence of it.
http://skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm[^]
fat_boy wrote:
This means the troposphere has to be getting warmer, at least as warm as the surface if not warmer. This report shows it isnt
http://skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm[^] http://skepticalscience.com/tropospheric-hot-spot.htm[^]
Proud to have finally moved to the A-Ark. Which one are you in?
Author of the Guardians Saga (Sci-Fi/Fantasy novels)Ian Shlasko wrote:
Maybe you missed the part where it says that CO2 has reversed that trend, and that it's no longer cooling.
So I say its been cooling for 10000 years, you say it hasnt, and then post a link with a graph showing 10000 years of cooling, then refute that cooling by saying the trend has been reversed (a trend fro cooling, thus admitting it has ben cooling) by CO2 (which has only been produced by man in significant quantities form 1870 (source, IPCC) which is a time span considerably shorter than 10000 years. Ian, if you are going to argue, dont argue like a woman. Its only women who say, when refuted, "yeah but two years ago the grass was shorter" or some such utterly spurious statement. And in any cae, it doesnt say "CO2 has reversed the trend" it says " 2. The warming effect from CO2 and other greenhouse gases is greater than the cooling effect expected from natural factors. Without human interference, the Earth’s orbit and tilt, a slight decline in solar output since the 1950s and volcanic activity would have led to global cooling. Yet global temperatures are definitely on the rise. It can therefore be concluded that with CO2 concentrations set to continue to rise, a return to ice age conditions seems very unlikely." As for troposphereic warming, its still a problem for AGW. Because no matter how much they adjust the satellite data its still not warm enough because, and let me say this again, for GH gas warming to be evident the troposphere must warm at least as much as the surface.
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville