What Will You Do When There Are No More PCs?
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That can be arranged. :suss:
I got a cousin that knows someone that will make all the arrangements. bwaaahahahaha
A girl phoned me and said, 'Come on over. There's nobody home.' I went over. Nobody was home! Rodney Dangerfield
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Roger Wright wrote:
It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long.
this doesn't follow. margins are slim because competition is fierce, and competition is fierce because there's a strong market for the product. and HP dropping out of a business isn't really surprising to me - they've been making crappy management decisions for a long time.
It does follow, when you consider a company's ability to weather economic downturns, price wars, etc. With a margin of 10% - 15% you have some wiggle room. There are far more lucrative areas in which to invest capital, and there's little incentive to settle for such a low ROI. The fact that many people still want to buy PCs is not a good reason to keep making them, if you can't make a decent profit; let them eat tablets.
Will Rogers never met me.
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It does follow, when you consider a company's ability to weather economic downturns, price wars, etc. With a margin of 10% - 15% you have some wiggle room. There are far more lucrative areas in which to invest capital, and there's little incentive to settle for such a low ROI. The fact that many people still want to buy PCs is not a good reason to keep making them, if you can't make a decent profit; let them eat tablets.
Will Rogers never met me.
Roger Wright wrote:
The fact that many people still want to buy PCs is not a good reason to keep making them, if you can't make a decent profit
that's true. but it just means the least-efficient manufacturers will drop out of the PC market, not that the PC market itself will go away. there are hundreds of companies in Asia who will be very happy to fill the void that HP (or Dell, or whoever) leaves.
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
I must say I am a little concerned. My parents bought the IPAD2. Now their laptop is just sitting and collecting dust. However, I am a ASP.NET developer so I'm not too worried but it does look like the time will come when PCs or laptops will probably only be seen in businesses. I think this will come quicker than most think ! Isn't it fun being a developer ? I know at some point I'm going to end up driving a truck for a living. I'm not sure how but I'm convinced its going to happen ! HAHA !
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I must say I am a little concerned. My parents bought the IPAD2. Now their laptop is just sitting and collecting dust. However, I am a ASP.NET developer so I'm not too worried but it does look like the time will come when PCs or laptops will probably only be seen in businesses. I think this will come quicker than most think ! Isn't it fun being a developer ? I know at some point I'm going to end up driving a truck for a living. I'm not sure how but I'm convinced its going to happen ! HAHA !
UBX wrote:
driving a truck
Not once the iTeleport app is released.
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
Roger Wright wrote:
The Wintel platform has had its day
For domestic use I tend to agree apart from folks that like to code, build their own media-centre etc.. For business, however, I can't say that I agree. There would need to be sea changes in too many areas in order for that to happen. It will eventually, of course, but not in the short term.
Henry Minute Do not read medical books! You could die of a misprint. - Mark Twain Girl: (staring) "Why do you need an icy cucumber?" “I want to report a fraud. The government is lying to us all.” I wouldn't let CG touch my Abacus! When you're wrestling a gorilla, you don't stop when you're tired, you stop when the gorilla is.
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
This totally depends on what you define as a PC. If you mean "a beige box with a monitor and keyboard" then yes, they will go, because they will be replaced by, finally, things with a little more style. However, I don't think it will be tablets that take over, since typing on them is painful and the screen simply isn't big enough. I'll still need a mouse or pointing device because I don't want to ruin my back constantly bending forward to touch a screen sitting an ergonomically sensible distance away. The components can go inside the screen, or the screen can be my TV, but when I'm in my office I don't want a 40" screen. I want a couple of 19" screens, or maybe a single 30" wide aspect screen, and I want to be able to swivel it around so I can show things to those across my desk, yet I don't want it on the wall because I'd go blind squinting. Maybe the keyboard can be integrated into the desk (annoying) or can be virtual using a Kinect style interface, but I'll get bruised fingers tapping my desk, not to mention carpal tunnel. So we're left with a screen on my desk plus a keyboard and pointing device. I'd say that probably still counts as a PC.
cheers, Chris Maunder The Code Project | Co-founder Microsoft C++ MVP
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
I do think one needs to widen the horizons a bit and start thinking about mobile applications, be it for iPads/iPhones (iOS), Android or Windows Phone, but I have a real hard time seeing a quick demise for the PC market, simply because, look at most companies today, what do they use? You got it, PC:s (laptops or workstations). I can't see that shift in a forseeable future, I mean just look at how quick most companies are at adopting new technology, I mean it's just in the last few years having your E-mail in the smartphone has become widely adopted. There are still a good percentage of companies that run Windows XP, since they are too cautious about their software platforms not being able to cope with Windows 7. Now I'm not talking about the tech industry here, but the rest of the world that often seems to be forgotten when all these tech news are published. I, personally, hate to see nuclear powerplants ran by iPads, or hospital systems running on android tablets. It's fancy, and I like 'em for what they are, but they are far from fully capable of replacing my laptop when it comes to work. The other thing is, gaming. Most games are released on the PC platform since it allows for developers to develop games for new hardware technologies. I mean, if you are to make a game for the Xbox 360, you know that you're limited to the hardware inside that box, built on technology from back in 2006. And the truth is the some of the technology from the gaming industry spills over into other areas aswell when it comes to 3D and visualization technology. And that in turn drives the development of faster and more extreme CPU:s and GPU:s. I think the mobile platforms might have a fighting chance if they come with replaceable parts, so you can upgrade the graphics, cpu:s or memory of the units, but not before that. Well, that's my 2 cents on the issue. Have a good day! :)
Wexelblats algorithm: Pick two: 1. Good, 2. Fast, 3. Cheap
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I agree 100% with PIEBALDconsult. Like him, I work on an enterprise solution (that's connected to by desktops, tablets, smart phones and even electronic devices). I couldn't imagine developing our product on anything but an adequately powered PC (or a Linux workstation if we were non-Microsoft). We happen to use quad core Xeons with 8G RAM, a 100G SSD as a system disk, and a vanilla 2TB 7200rpm secondary disk. All work is of course checked in to a TFS server. All dev workstations are equipped with dual 1920x1200 panels. That being said, I agree that the client PC market is fast losing share to smaller footprint portable devices. The age of the family computer is past. But enterprises will continue to have a need for desktop devices, with their field personnel moving from laptops and netbooks to tablets or just smartphones. /ravi
My new year resolution: 2048 x 1536 Home | Articles | My .NET bits | Freeware ravib(at)ravib(dot)com
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
Watch the sun set, drink whiskey and sing about the good old days
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
Relax
Simply Elegant Designs JimmyRopes Designs
Think inside the box! ProActive Secure Systems
I'm on-line therefore I am. JimmyRopes -
This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
computers and computing power is going invisible i think there will still be programmers using pc's writing the software for the "invisible" devices but regular users won't need keyboards etc for consuming media etc also i think the convergence between tablet type devices and web from a UI perspective will accelerate so that the experience becomes seamless for the users, which implies the programming paradigms will converge too basically learn javascript :)
"mostly watching the human race is like watching dogs watch tv ... they see the pictures move but the meaning escapes them"
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I work on the server/backend, so I don't think I'd be affected were that to happen. It's just a matter of what to use to do the development. I could easily go back to using a dumb terminus connected to a mainframe or mini-computer. I'm also interested in thin/zero clients. The last time I was at the Microsoft Store (in Scottsdale) I took a look at a Win7 tablet. I found that I could get to the DOS prompt, use Edit to write a C# program, compile it with CSC, and run it :-D . The problem, of course, was that there wasn't really enough screen real estate for both the on-screen virtual keyboard and the Edit window. :sigh: To mis-quote Red October: "Developing on a tablet is possible, but not recommended". I expect that a separate keyboard could be attached, and if it could also be connected to a TV, that'd be pretty good.
PIEBALDconsult wrote:
I'm also interested in thin/zero clients
Ah Zero clients, the dream of every developer - get rid of the users.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity RAH
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This totally depends on what you define as a PC. If you mean "a beige box with a monitor and keyboard" then yes, they will go, because they will be replaced by, finally, things with a little more style. However, I don't think it will be tablets that take over, since typing on them is painful and the screen simply isn't big enough. I'll still need a mouse or pointing device because I don't want to ruin my back constantly bending forward to touch a screen sitting an ergonomically sensible distance away. The components can go inside the screen, or the screen can be my TV, but when I'm in my office I don't want a 40" screen. I want a couple of 19" screens, or maybe a single 30" wide aspect screen, and I want to be able to swivel it around so I can show things to those across my desk, yet I don't want it on the wall because I'd go blind squinting. Maybe the keyboard can be integrated into the desk (annoying) or can be virtual using a Kinect style interface, but I'll get bruised fingers tapping my desk, not to mention carpal tunnel. So we're left with a screen on my desk plus a keyboard and pointing device. I'd say that probably still counts as a PC.
cheers, Chris Maunder The Code Project | Co-founder Microsoft C++ MVP
I know the killer hardware device, a good holographic monitor. If the viewing area did not need a physical bound then I would agree that the PC's days may be numbered. As it is, the home PC may morph into something but the LOB machine is here for the foreseeable future.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity RAH
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computers and computing power is going invisible i think there will still be programmers using pc's writing the software for the "invisible" devices but regular users won't need keyboards etc for consuming media etc also i think the convergence between tablet type devices and web from a UI perspective will accelerate so that the experience becomes seamless for the users, which implies the programming paradigms will converge too basically learn javascript :)
"mostly watching the human race is like watching dogs watch tv ... they see the pictures move but the meaning escapes them"
l a u r e n wrote:
basically learn javascript
Heck no. X|
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
Roger Wright wrote:
The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss.
I suggest that you don't hold your breath until that predication comes true.
Roger Wright wrote:
What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions?
So exactly what platform are you using to investigate those two technologies?
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
I'd just pick up some other techno-thingie, and go with that. If you've been hacking for almost 20 years, and nothing else, there's little or no difference between platform A and platform B. There will always be computing, and as long as there is computing, there will be programming. I've even picked up the bad habit of hacking apples...
-- Kein Mitleid Für Die Mehrheit
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
This is the usual prediction by pundits. People who think they can predict where the industry will be in ten years, or five years, are generally wrong. I found this statement from the article rather telling: "Fully integrated hardware and software systems like Apple's iPhone, iPad and Macintosh are becoming more sought-after in the technology industry. Apple does not break out its segment profits, but it is the eighth most-profitable company on the Fortune 500. " How does the MacIntosh gain in popularity fit into this equation? Suddenly everyone who thought Macs were too expensive are going to run out and buy them? Because it's the "smart thing to do"? No, this is evidence that the writer of the article is covering up some weak research. This is the usual analysis method where we take a trend, draw a line into the future, and say that "if nothing else changes..." But something always changes and if such analytic techniques were spot-on we'd all be working for Microsoft, getting our power from Enron, be completely out of petroleum, and everyone we know would have AIDS. Now we will each own multiple iphones, multiple ipads, and Apple will own everything else because that's where the trend logically leads. Faugh. The home pc will die when it dies. By the time CNN will be aware of it it will have been dead for five years.
_____________________________ Give a man a mug, he drinks for a day. Teach a man to mug...
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
The more thins change, the more they remain the same. I will do the same I did when they did not build any Ataris or Commodores anymore. I will find myself another nice and interesting thingie to program on and try to keep my humor as they struggle to reinvent all kinds of wheels to reach the same level we used to have.
"Dark the dark side is. Very dark..." - Yoda ---
"Shut up, Yoda, and just make yourself another toast." - Obi Wan Kenobi
