What Will You Do When There Are No More PCs?
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
Advances in speech technology will quickly negate the need for a keyboard. I imagine a Kinect-like environment for the gestural wiring together of computational objects, in conjunction with the afore mentioned speech recognition technologies, that will quickly satisfy the need for an "organic" connection to our code. The PC is just a tool for climbing the mountain in our minds. We will adapt and reach for the next handhold. We may need to abandon the emotional attachments that we feel to these wonderful "companions" in order to move into the future, but we have done that before and we shall once again.
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ahmed zahmed wrote:
new format of PC
Yes, a more personal Personal Computer.
I guess we are just going back to the UNIX times in which you moved from one console to another. However, we just take the tablet with us (or incredibly powerful phone) and just connect it to a display, a tv or projector. That sounds pretty cool.
My new toy: www.cloudclipx.com -- If I have 8 hours to chop down a tree, I spend 6 sharpening my ax!
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
People have been using fear based thinking for 1000's of years and most those fears never have been realized. programmers have long fear the end of programming, not realizing that most oh humanity is clueless enough to even use basic scripting languages. stop thinking too much and have a cup of tea and listen to the wind blow through the trees.
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This is the usual prediction by pundits. People who think they can predict where the industry will be in ten years, or five years, are generally wrong. I found this statement from the article rather telling: "Fully integrated hardware and software systems like Apple's iPhone, iPad and Macintosh are becoming more sought-after in the technology industry. Apple does not break out its segment profits, but it is the eighth most-profitable company on the Fortune 500. " How does the MacIntosh gain in popularity fit into this equation? Suddenly everyone who thought Macs were too expensive are going to run out and buy them? Because it's the "smart thing to do"? No, this is evidence that the writer of the article is covering up some weak research. This is the usual analysis method where we take a trend, draw a line into the future, and say that "if nothing else changes..." But something always changes and if such analytic techniques were spot-on we'd all be working for Microsoft, getting our power from Enron, be completely out of petroleum, and everyone we know would have AIDS. Now we will each own multiple iphones, multiple ipads, and Apple will own everything else because that's where the trend logically leads. Faugh. The home pc will die when it dies. By the time CNN will be aware of it it will have been dead for five years.
_____________________________ Give a man a mug, he drinks for a day. Teach a man to mug...
smcnulty2000 wrote:
People who think they can predict where the industry will be in ten years, or five years, are generally wrong.
Actually they are almost always wrong. Random chance insures some guesses will be correct. For those that think that they can predict the future then I always wonder why they are not rich. Not to mention of course that they are seldom confident enough in their predictions to substantially back it up with a financial investment that reflects their prediction.
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I agree 100% with PIEBALDconsult. Like him, I work on an enterprise solution (that's connected to by desktops, tablets, smart phones and even electronic devices). I couldn't imagine developing our product on anything but an adequately powered PC (or a Linux workstation if we were non-Microsoft). We happen to use quad core Xeons with 8G RAM, a 100G SSD as a system disk, and a vanilla 2TB 7200rpm secondary disk. All work is of course checked in to a TFS server. All dev workstations are equipped with dual 1920x1200 panels. That being said, I agree that the client PC market is fast losing share to smaller footprint portable devices. The age of the family computer is past. But enterprises will continue to have a need for desktop devices, with their field personnel moving from laptops and netbooks to tablets or just smartphones. /ravi
My new year resolution: 2048 x 1536 Home | Articles | My .NET bits | Freeware ravib(at)ravib(dot)com
Can I send you my resume? hahahahahaha Nice work environment!
My new toy: www.cloudclipx.com -- If I have 8 hours to chop down a tree, I spend 6 sharpening my ax!
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Advances in speech technology will quickly negate the need for a keyboard. I imagine a Kinect-like environment for the gestural wiring together of computational objects, in conjunction with the afore mentioned speech recognition technologies, that will quickly satisfy the need for an "organic" connection to our code. The PC is just a tool for climbing the mountain in our minds. We will adapt and reach for the next handhold. We may need to abandon the emotional attachments that we feel to these wonderful "companions" in order to move into the future, but we have done that before and we shall once again.
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One can imagine all sorts of things. However the vast majority will never be realized. And there is certainly nothing that suggests that there is going to be a huge breakthrough in speech recognition given that it has been around for decades.
Need and pragmatism and single-minded effort drive realization. Huge breakthroughs are not required in most endeavors. A few small breakthroughs, mercifully stumbled upon after decades of effort, will suffice. Anyone who has attempted to use any SAPI to accomplish any non-trivial task realizes that you are absolutely and justifiably correct in your skepticism. There is, however, a certain insulation and fulfillment that comes from not giving up on ones strange imaginings. The world was flat for awhile.
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
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smcnulty2000 wrote:
People who think they can predict where the industry will be in ten years, or five years, are generally wrong.
Actually they are almost always wrong. Random chance insures some guesses will be correct. For those that think that they can predict the future then I always wonder why they are not rich. Not to mention of course that they are seldom confident enough in their predictions to substantially back it up with a financial investment that reflects their prediction.
Too darned right. I was being too generous. :thumbsup:
_____________________________ Give a man a mug, he drinks for a day. Teach a man to mug...
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Need and pragmatism and single-minded effort drive realization. Huge breakthroughs are not required in most endeavors. A few small breakthroughs, mercifully stumbled upon after decades of effort, will suffice. Anyone who has attempted to use any SAPI to accomplish any non-trivial task realizes that you are absolutely and justifiably correct in your skepticism. There is, however, a certain insulation and fulfillment that comes from not giving up on ones strange imaginings. The world was flat for awhile.
ErrolErrol wrote:
The world was flat for awhile.
And now it's crooked. :laugh:
_____________________________ Give a man a mug, he drinks for a day. Teach a man to mug...
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PIEBALDconsult wrote:
And there is no need for anyone to have a computer in their home.
And the world-wide market for computers will only be 4 to 5.
Psychosis at 10 Film at 11 Those who do not remember the past, are doomed to repeat it. Those who do not remember the past, cannot build upon it.
My first thought was to go with that one. :thumbsup:
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
Yeah, no. The real bottleneck now is not the machines, but the human interface. Tablet, desktop, laptop, handheld, all variations on a common theme. Better, or completely different types of displays, flexible, rollups for instance and direct thought controlled or motion capture input will be the next big boom. Keyboard, mouse, monitor, have all been refined, but they have fallen FAR behind in relative advancement over the years.
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
very interesting question! it seems clear that at least the developers and maybe the "number crunchers" will still need the PC, and that it will therefore still be around. but what will happen when the PC as a development product is no longer subsidized by the consumer. is the progress of the last 30 years only because of the huge market? the PC will get expensive and the developers will disappear. and it might happen faster than anyone can imagine.
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This article on cnn.com[^] discusses HP's decision to exit the PC business, and predicts that others will follow. The PC we all know and love/hate has been a marginal product line for at least a decade, and I'm surprised that any major manufacturer bothers with it still. It's not possible to operate a business that returns a margin of 2% - 5% and survive for very long. The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss. What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions? Are you working on one last killer app that will make you rich enough to retire? Or are you perfecting your burger flipping technique? What's it going to be, and at what point in the process do you plan to exit gracefully and begin your new career?
Will Rogers never met me.
The screens on the mobile devices are too small and their input methods too clumsy to do any serious work. Checking your e-mail and browsing Facebook is NOT serious work, unlike programming, photoshopping, 3D modelling, etc. What would really kill the PC as we know it today are 3D stereoscopic glasses that also provide a terminator-like heads-up display and recognize your hand gestures. Imagine walking around and seeing a map of your location in one corner of your vision, like in a video game. And when the need arises to do serious work, seeing a virtual keyboard that you tap by moving your hands in the air. Those glasses would be both mobile and with excellent screen size (your entire field of view, way better than dual monitor setups). As I see it, smartphones and tablets are just a transitional period leading to full augmented reality and not the One True Way To Suits Us For Eternity®. In the mean time, I dare everyone claiming that PCs are dead to stop using a computer for any kind of work or leisure. What do you, guys, think?
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The screens on the mobile devices are too small and their input methods too clumsy to do any serious work. Checking your e-mail and browsing Facebook is NOT serious work, unlike programming, photoshopping, 3D modelling, etc. What would really kill the PC as we know it today are 3D stereoscopic glasses that also provide a terminator-like heads-up display and recognize your hand gestures. Imagine walking around and seeing a map of your location in one corner of your vision, like in a video game. And when the need arises to do serious work, seeing a virtual keyboard that you tap by moving your hands in the air. Those glasses would be both mobile and with excellent screen size (your entire field of view, way better than dual monitor setups). As I see it, smartphones and tablets are just a transitional period leading to full augmented reality and not the One True Way To Suits Us For Eternity®. In the mean time, I dare everyone claiming that PCs are dead to stop using a computer for any kind of work or leisure. What do you, guys, think?
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I must say I am a little concerned. My parents bought the IPAD2. Now their laptop is just sitting and collecting dust. However, I am a ASP.NET developer so I'm not too worried but it does look like the time will come when PCs or laptops will probably only be seen in businesses. I think this will come quicker than most think ! Isn't it fun being a developer ? I know at some point I'm going to end up driving a truck for a living. I'm not sure how but I'm convinced its going to happen ! HAHA !
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In agreement with you, I think a lot of this 'windows is dead' comes under the heading of wishful thinking.. its been fashionable for quite a while now to bad mouth Microsoft.. I see this as another wrinkle on that formula.
I think it's the same group that puts out the stuff about Linux taking over in the desktop space. We all know that ain't going to happen. Maybe it underpins a lot of the mobile platforms but it's presence there doesn't herald the "demise" of the "PC" any more than the presence of IOS does. The market is changing, no doubt about it. Some shifting is going on. That doesn't mean the standard "desktop" (and I include laptops in there) are going to go away at all. Some people simply don't need anything as elaborate as a full-blown computer. My wife, for example, has almost completely moved off her laptop onto her iPhone. It makes sense for her. For me, though, I'm a Windows developer. Visual Studio doesn't run too well on a smart phone, nor will it ever. Neither does Roxio (which I use to convert video / audio), AutoCAD (which many folks use) and most of the high-end business applications. I wouldn't dream of trying to stay proficient as a pilot with anything less than FSX on my big 20" screen that's attached to my i7 box. PC's still sell by the millions. The idea that there will be "no more" PC's ANY time in the foreseeable future is ludicrous. -Max
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People have been using fear based thinking for 1000's of years and most those fears never have been realized. programmers have long fear the end of programming, not realizing that most oh humanity is clueless enough to even use basic scripting languages. stop thinking too much and have a cup of tea and listen to the wind blow through the trees.
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Orlin Georgiev wrote:
What do you, guys, think?
Why wave your hands when you can hold out for an interface that is embedded in your skull.
That would be the next step :cool:
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My first thought was to go with that one. :thumbsup:
I have a book copyrighted 1949 called "Electronic Brains" or sumsuch. I kept it just for that pronouncement.
Psychosis at 10 Film at 11 Those who do not remember the past, are doomed to repeat it. Those who do not remember the past, cannot build upon it.