Did the Japanese recession in the 1990's foretell of the current one in the west?
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I was looking back over the Japanese recession and wondered if it fortold of the current one in the west, particularly since interest rates actually went negative in Japan at the time, they were so keen for people to borrow money. economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991, in which real estate and stock prices were greatly inflated.[1] The bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices initially bottoming in 2003, [^] "So much money readily available for investment, combined with financial deregulation, overconfidence and euphoria about the economic prospects, and monetary easing implemented by the Bank of Japan in late 1980s resulted in aggressive speculation,[2] particularly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the real estate market" Amyone remember the famous "teo lifetime" mortgages in Japan at the time? "By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak" So a mere 25% drop in the west is not too bad by comparison. One big difference is that the stock market has not been hit so bad in the west. Pronbably because the houseing crash happened at a different time to the stock crash, and in fact stocks havent regained their 90;s values since that stock crash (dot com crash). But dont you think that in the mid 2000s world leaders would have looked at Japan and though to themselves that it was providing a very clear warning of what could easily happen with over extended lending? And also following the Japanese example, it will take a decade to get out of.
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I was looking back over the Japanese recession and wondered if it fortold of the current one in the west, particularly since interest rates actually went negative in Japan at the time, they were so keen for people to borrow money. economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991, in which real estate and stock prices were greatly inflated.[1] The bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices initially bottoming in 2003, [^] "So much money readily available for investment, combined with financial deregulation, overconfidence and euphoria about the economic prospects, and monetary easing implemented by the Bank of Japan in late 1980s resulted in aggressive speculation,[2] particularly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the real estate market" Amyone remember the famous "teo lifetime" mortgages in Japan at the time? "By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak" So a mere 25% drop in the west is not too bad by comparison. One big difference is that the stock market has not been hit so bad in the west. Pronbably because the houseing crash happened at a different time to the stock crash, and in fact stocks havent regained their 90;s values since that stock crash (dot com crash). But dont you think that in the mid 2000s world leaders would have looked at Japan and though to themselves that it was providing a very clear warning of what could easily happen with over extended lending? And also following the Japanese example, it will take a decade to get out of.
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I have heard theories that the Japanese recesion was triggered by the dollar being adjusted. Back when Regan was Prez the dollar was really strong (before the big crash in 88). He convinced all the strong economic nations to adjust so the US could get more exports going (nothing goes out when your money is too highly valued.... Econ 201). Shortly after it was adjusted BOOM. Wich tumbled the Japanese Yen even more and their entire economy. And they are still trying to recover. No links right now, but one of my Econ teachers at Kyshu Uni had this theory. I am sure she gave some sources, but I never really paid attention in that class. We were all to busy messing with her, "meow".
Computers have been intelligent for a long time now. It just so happens that the program writers are about as effective as a room full of monkeys trying to crank out a copy of Hamlet.
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I have heard theories that the Japanese recesion was triggered by the dollar being adjusted. Back when Regan was Prez the dollar was really strong (before the big crash in 88). He convinced all the strong economic nations to adjust so the US could get more exports going (nothing goes out when your money is too highly valued.... Econ 201). Shortly after it was adjusted BOOM. Wich tumbled the Japanese Yen even more and their entire economy. And they are still trying to recover. No links right now, but one of my Econ teachers at Kyshu Uni had this theory. I am sure she gave some sources, but I never really paid attention in that class. We were all to busy messing with her, "meow".
Computers have been intelligent for a long time now. It just so happens that the program writers are about as effective as a room full of monkeys trying to crank out a copy of Hamlet.
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Interesting. I would like to read some more about that.
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Found some info on it fo ya :) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord[^] It comments about the 'postulation' of causing the bubble. That is more what my teacher went into. Just theories, but quite interesting.
Computers have been intelligent for a long time now. It just so happens that the program writers are about as effective as a room full of monkeys trying to crank out a copy of Hamlet.
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I was looking back over the Japanese recession and wondered if it fortold of the current one in the west, particularly since interest rates actually went negative in Japan at the time, they were so keen for people to borrow money. economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991, in which real estate and stock prices were greatly inflated.[1] The bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices initially bottoming in 2003, [^] "So much money readily available for investment, combined with financial deregulation, overconfidence and euphoria about the economic prospects, and monetary easing implemented by the Bank of Japan in late 1980s resulted in aggressive speculation,[2] particularly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the real estate market" Amyone remember the famous "teo lifetime" mortgages in Japan at the time? "By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak" So a mere 25% drop in the west is not too bad by comparison. One big difference is that the stock market has not been hit so bad in the west. Pronbably because the houseing crash happened at a different time to the stock crash, and in fact stocks havent regained their 90;s values since that stock crash (dot com crash). But dont you think that in the mid 2000s world leaders would have looked at Japan and though to themselves that it was providing a very clear warning of what could easily happen with over extended lending? And also following the Japanese example, it will take a decade to get out of.
============================== Nothing to say.
Paul Krugman has written about this both on his blog and in his columns. They're still not out of it. He's mentioned the same failed austerity measures we're doing and England has done as well. The austerity performed in England has added to their slump and gdp decline.
Well, who doesn't release stuff like that ? Microsoft software is just as bad. Christian Graus That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
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Paul Krugman has written about this both on his blog and in his columns. They're still not out of it. He's mentioned the same failed austerity measures we're doing and England has done as well. The austerity performed in England has added to their slump and gdp decline.
Well, who doesn't release stuff like that ? Microsoft software is just as bad. Christian Graus That's called seagull management (or sometimes pigeon management)... Fly in, flap your arms and squawk a lot, crap all over everything and fly out again... by _Damian S_
Yes, I feel austerity measures are wrong. Reduced taxes and spending are the thing to do, and worry about inflation later. But austerity is convinces the ratings agencies. and I heard one pundit saying that if you examine the UKs figures, they havent cut back on spending at all. Austerity is a just for show. :)
============================== Nothing to say.
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Found some info on it fo ya :) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord[^] It comments about the 'postulation' of causing the bubble. That is more what my teacher went into. Just theories, but quite interesting.
Computers have been intelligent for a long time now. It just so happens that the program writers are about as effective as a room full of monkeys trying to crank out a copy of Hamlet.