Insert Credit to Play Again
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The ECB should act as the Bank of Last Resort, but, politically, their hands are tied. This (from Barclays Capital, Economic Research)you may find an interesting (and depressing) read ... http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/can%20italy%20save%20itself.pdf[^]
Latest - German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that "The situation in Europe is so unpleasant that it's time for a breakthrough." I am thinking, yes, through the Ardennes, with five Panzer divisions.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
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Latest - German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that "The situation in Europe is so unpleasant that it's time for a breakthrough." I am thinking, yes, through the Ardennes, with five Panzer divisions.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
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I remember your observation of the need to move money to an Irish bank just prior to the RBS being bailed out. If Italy goes, and the Euro implodes, will your savings (or your company's deposits) in any bank, not just a British bank, be safe?
Our money has been renationalised and invested into land. (there is still about £30Million on deposit, but that is fairly safe and spread around quite a bit).
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
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I remember your observation of the need to move money to an Irish bank just prior to the RBS being bailed out. If Italy goes, and the Euro implodes, will your savings (or your company's deposits) in any bank, not just a British bank, be safe?
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
and the Euro implodes
Wht should it just because a couple of countries leave? In fact so determind wil be Germany to save the euro, that althought ejecting Greece is palatable, Italy isnt, so they will QE eventually. The other EU members have insisted it is left in the armoury as a last resort weapon, despite Merkels disagreement.
============================== Nothing to say.
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
and the Euro implodes
Wht should it just because a couple of countries leave? In fact so determind wil be Germany to save the euro, that althought ejecting Greece is palatable, Italy isnt, so they will QE eventually. The other EU members have insisted it is left in the armoury as a last resort weapon, despite Merkels disagreement.
============================== Nothing to say.
Leaving the Euro might implicate a country leaving the EU. For Greece, that might not be too problematic even for the remaining EU members, but if Italy has to go down that road, this would mean an original member of the EU would go and that might give cause for the Treaty of Rome and other Treaties to be questioned in terms of their continuing relevance let alone their continuing status of legality. Thus, even for Germany and France, there will be much more lost than gained if Italy fails.
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Richard A. Abbott wrote:
and the Euro implodes
Wht should it just because a couple of countries leave? In fact so determind wil be Germany to save the euro, that althought ejecting Greece is palatable, Italy isnt, so they will QE eventually. The other EU members have insisted it is left in the armoury as a last resort weapon, despite Merkels disagreement.
============================== Nothing to say.
Germans have long memories and they do not want the inflation that scuppered them in the 20's. They will fight tooth and nail to avoid QE.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
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Leaving the Euro might implicate a country leaving the EU. For Greece, that might not be too problematic even for the remaining EU members, but if Italy has to go down that road, this would mean an original member of the EU would go and that might give cause for the Treaty of Rome and other Treaties to be questioned in terms of their continuing relevance let alone their continuing status of legality. Thus, even for Germany and France, there will be much more lost than gained if Italy fails.
France[^] is next. The spread is now 148 points over Germany and widening. Downgrade soon? The 10 year yield rate will grow to 4% before the day is out, and that is not a Triple A Rate.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
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France[^] is next. The spread is now 148 points over Germany and widening. Downgrade soon? The 10 year yield rate will grow to 4% before the day is out, and that is not a Triple A Rate.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
If France is next, then it is end game for the Euro. There is nothing that Germany could do to avoid the ultimate humiliation that a crashed Euro could display. And as far as the ECB is concerned, [quote (from MarketWatch)] elevated use of the ECB's liquidity facilities shows that banks have yet to be convinced of the effectiveness of measures announced by European Union leaders to end the debt crisis [/quote] This as ably described in this BBC story published 2 days ago ... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15592197[^]
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Italy Bonds at 7.4%[^] The game is up. They cannot borrow at that rate, and there is not enough in the fund to bail them. Even the ECB is breaking its own rules and buying Govt Bonds. The Germans will just love that. Let us grab the popcorn and settle down to watch the Euro explode. When Politics meets Economics, Economics always wins.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
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Italy Bonds at 7.4%[^] The game is up. They cannot borrow at that rate, and there is not enough in the fund to bail them. Even the ECB is breaking its own rules and buying Govt Bonds. The Germans will just love that. Let us grab the popcorn and settle down to watch the Euro explode. When Politics meets Economics, Economics always wins.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
Dalek Dave wrote:
When Politics meets Economics, Economics always wins.
And we loose.
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Dalek Dave wrote:
When Politics meets Economics, Economics always wins.
And we loose.
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Leaving the Euro might implicate a country leaving the EU. For Greece, that might not be too problematic even for the remaining EU members, but if Italy has to go down that road, this would mean an original member of the EU would go and that might give cause for the Treaty of Rome and other Treaties to be questioned in terms of their continuing relevance let alone their continuing status of legality. Thus, even for Germany and France, there will be much more lost than gained if Italy fails.
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
Leaving the Euro might implicate a country leaving the EU
This neednot be the case. Many EU members dont use the Euro, the UK especially. I heard on CNBC this mornig that the CDU (or something like that, an EU body) is forming an 'exit the euro' plan. If this comes to fruition the ECB might engage in QE. Almost everyone is saying this is the way to go, but that with the ECB being so german centric it is unlikely, although German unemployment is on the up, so they might go for it as a last resort. Interestingly the new ECB head, and Italian, cut .25% off the euro interest rate his first day in the job. Perhaps he will be more ameanable to QE.
============================== Nothing to say.
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France[^] is next. The spread is now 148 points over Germany and widening. Downgrade soon? The 10 year yield rate will grow to 4% before the day is out, and that is not a Triple A Rate.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
Yeah, it is underpressure, but I dont think it is as bad as Italy. Sarkozy has got tough, there havent been the big demos like in Italy and Greece, so it seems the public are behind him. He has been cutting public expenditure for many months already, he has already started making the necessary changes. Of course QE is the answer, and I am sure the ECB will do, it just needs Italy to get into a real mess with its 1.2 trillion of debt to force the ECBs hand. Of course they could have done this months ago and averted all the strife like I have been saying for ages.
============================== Nothing to say.
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Germans have long memories and they do not want the inflation that scuppered them in the 20's. They will fight tooth and nail to avoid QE.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
Yeah, they hate it, but if they want the euro ti stay, they will have to eventually. In fact german unemployement is up, the rest of the euro zone is in recession, so really the curve is down, they now need to get ahead of it.
============================== Nothing to say.
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Germans have long memories and they do not want the inflation that scuppered them in the 20's. They will fight tooth and nail to avoid QE.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
Well their memories (and a lot of logic) must be failing them if they think it's inflation that leads to crisis, instead of the opposite. Preventing inflation by killing economy isn't gonna help anyone (except the bankers, for a time).
'As programmers go, I'm fairly social. Which still means I'm a borderline sociopath by normal standards.' Jeff Atwood 'I'm French! Why do you think I've got this outrrrrageous accent?' Monty Python and the Holy Grail