What am I missing ?
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I'm not completely following the logic of your numbers, but I think I can identify two side issues with the approximations that I think you are trying to make: (1) You haven't identified all groups (eg. military, at-home/spouses, students, US payroll but working out of the country, volunteer...) (2) Some people can be in multiple groups (eg. over 65/67 but working, disabled but working, people working multiple jobs, employed but "off work" on disability...) Myself? I am under 65, retired, not disabled but working part time. Also doing volunteer work.
-- Harvey
H.Brydon wrote:
You haven't identified all groups (eg. military, at-home/spouses, students, US payroll but working out of the country, volunteer...)
Good points. I just looked up stay at home parents. Military would be considered employed and fit in the "employable" group, right?
H.Brydon wrote:
Some people can be in multiple groups (eg. over 65/67 but working, disabled but working, people working multiple jobs, employed but "off work" on disability...)
Yes, I'm not going for total accuracy - I'm assuming that the inaccuracies account for a percent or two at most. Marc
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I thought I'd have fun figuring out the "real" unemployment figure in the US. Here's what I've come up with: [edit](various edits as I realize I can't do math. It's amazing I can program.)[/edit] US population: 314 million Normal retirement age: 67 People age 65 or older: 41 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ Disabled, under age 65: 14 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ People under 18, 23% or 7 million approx http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html Full time employees: 117 million http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ Part time employees: 24 million (16 and older): http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ 314 - 41 retired (oops, was 67, used retirement age by mistake!) ---- 273 - 14 disabled ---- 259 - 72 under 18 (arg, I can't do math!!! This was 7!) ---- 187 <--- this should be the # of employable people. FT + PT employed = 141 million % unemployed = (187 - 141) / 187, or ~ 25% [edit] comparing apples and oranges, yes I know, thank you everyone [edit]: Unemployment: supposedly 7.6 % (these are the number of people out of work that are seeking work) Yeah, I know I'm using 16 and above and under 18 but the different is negligible. So what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"? Marc
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I thought I'd have fun figuring out the "real" unemployment figure in the US. Here's what I've come up with: [edit](various edits as I realize I can't do math. It's amazing I can program.)[/edit] US population: 314 million Normal retirement age: 67 People age 65 or older: 41 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ Disabled, under age 65: 14 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ People under 18, 23% or 7 million approx http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html Full time employees: 117 million http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ Part time employees: 24 million (16 and older): http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ 314 - 41 retired (oops, was 67, used retirement age by mistake!) ---- 273 - 14 disabled ---- 259 - 72 under 18 (arg, I can't do math!!! This was 7!) ---- 187 <--- this should be the # of employable people. FT + PT employed = 141 million % unemployed = (187 - 141) / 187, or ~ 25% [edit] comparing apples and oranges, yes I know, thank you everyone [edit]: Unemployment: supposedly 7.6 % (these are the number of people out of work that are seeking work) Yeah, I know I'm using 16 and above and under 18 but the different is negligible. So what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"? Marc
Late to the party, but here's my two cents. The 'unemployment' rate SHOULD be the percentage of people who WANT to work but can't find work when compared to the number of people who want to work. Part of the problem with the current system is it doesn't account for people who are 'retired', but are also working. For example, I know people who have 'retired' two or more times, are over 65 and still work. Also, as other's have said, my wife CHOOSES to be a stay-at-home wife and mother. Since she does not WANT to work for a paycheque, she shouldn't be including in the 'unemployed' figure. A friend's son recently lost his job, he has been accepted into the navy, but won't report for some time. So, is he 'unemployed'? Perhaps... He can look for work, but since it will be only a matter of months before he reports, will he? As my high school French teacher said (he has previously a statistician), "Statistics are like a bikini; what they reveal is interesting, what the hide is vital." Tim
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Quote:
So what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"?
Facebook users.
There are only 10 types of people in the world, those who understand binary and those who don't.
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Late to the party, but here's my two cents. The 'unemployment' rate SHOULD be the percentage of people who WANT to work but can't find work when compared to the number of people who want to work. Part of the problem with the current system is it doesn't account for people who are 'retired', but are also working. For example, I know people who have 'retired' two or more times, are over 65 and still work. Also, as other's have said, my wife CHOOSES to be a stay-at-home wife and mother. Since she does not WANT to work for a paycheque, she shouldn't be including in the 'unemployed' figure. A friend's son recently lost his job, he has been accepted into the navy, but won't report for some time. So, is he 'unemployed'? Perhaps... He can look for work, but since it will be only a matter of months before he reports, will he? As my high school French teacher said (he has previously a statistician), "Statistics are like a bikini; what they reveal is interesting, what the hide is vital." Tim
Tim Carmichael wrote:
Late to the party, but here's my two cents.
Welcome. :)
Tim Carmichael wrote:
but can't find work when compared to the number of people who want to work.
Which isn't easy to determine, is it? It seems the only way to gather this statistic is by those filing unemployment?
Tim Carmichael wrote:
she shouldn't be including in the 'unemployed' figure.
Yes, I've account for this now: Stay at home moms: 5 million http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/facts\_for\_features\_special\_editions/cb11-ff07.html Stay at home dads: 154,000 https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/facts\_for\_features\_special\_editions/cb11-ff11.html
Tim Carmichael wrote:
Statistics are like a bikini; what they reveal is interesting, what the hide is vital.
Quite so. Just trying to get a ballpark figure to see how this is calculated. I've read a lot of articles on the stats for unemployment, underemployment, employable, etc., but they never show how they derive their numbers. It's so unprofessional. So I thought I'd try and see what I come up with while I wait for feature tests to run. :) Marc
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I thought I'd have fun figuring out the "real" unemployment figure in the US. Here's what I've come up with: [edit](various edits as I realize I can't do math. It's amazing I can program.)[/edit] US population: 314 million Normal retirement age: 67 People age 65 or older: 41 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ Disabled, under age 65: 14 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ People under 18, 23% or 7 million approx http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html Full time employees: 117 million http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ Part time employees: 24 million (16 and older): http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ 314 - 41 retired (oops, was 67, used retirement age by mistake!) ---- 273 - 14 disabled ---- 259 - 72 under 18 (arg, I can't do math!!! This was 7!) ---- 187 <--- this should be the # of employable people. FT + PT employed = 141 million % unemployed = (187 - 141) / 187, or ~ 25% [edit] comparing apples and oranges, yes I know, thank you everyone [edit]: Unemployment: supposedly 7.6 % (these are the number of people out of work that are seeking work) Yeah, I know I'm using 16 and above and under 18 but the different is negligible. So what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"? Marc
Marc Clifton wrote:
what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"?
Housewives/househusbands and carers.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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I thought I'd have fun figuring out the "real" unemployment figure in the US. Here's what I've come up with: [edit](various edits as I realize I can't do math. It's amazing I can program.)[/edit] US population: 314 million Normal retirement age: 67 People age 65 or older: 41 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ Disabled, under age 65: 14 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ People under 18, 23% or 7 million approx http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html Full time employees: 117 million http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ Part time employees: 24 million (16 and older): http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ 314 - 41 retired (oops, was 67, used retirement age by mistake!) ---- 273 - 14 disabled ---- 259 - 72 under 18 (arg, I can't do math!!! This was 7!) ---- 187 <--- this should be the # of employable people. FT + PT employed = 141 million % unemployed = (187 - 141) / 187, or ~ 25% [edit] comparing apples and oranges, yes I know, thank you everyone [edit]: Unemployment: supposedly 7.6 % (these are the number of people out of work that are seeking work) Yeah, I know I'm using 16 and above and under 18 but the different is negligible. So what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"? Marc
there are many different unemployment numbers: http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm[^]
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Marc Clifton wrote:
what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"?
Housewives/househusbands and carers.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
Mark_Wallace wrote:
Housewives/househusbands and carers.
Added stay at home parents. 5M women, .15 men. Also added prisoners. 1.5M Marc
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there are many different unemployment numbers: http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm[^]
Chris Losinger wrote:
there are many different unemployment numbers: http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm[^]
Ah, thanks for remdinging me of that page - I stumbled across that earlier. Marc
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I thought I'd have fun figuring out the "real" unemployment figure in the US. Here's what I've come up with: [edit](various edits as I realize I can't do math. It's amazing I can program.)[/edit] US population: 314 million Normal retirement age: 67 People age 65 or older: 41 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ Disabled, under age 65: 14 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ People under 18, 23% or 7 million approx http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html Full time employees: 117 million http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ Part time employees: 24 million (16 and older): http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ 314 - 41 retired (oops, was 67, used retirement age by mistake!) ---- 273 - 14 disabled ---- 259 - 72 under 18 (arg, I can't do math!!! This was 7!) ---- 187 <--- this should be the # of employable people. FT + PT employed = 141 million % unemployed = (187 - 141) / 187, or ~ 25% [edit] comparing apples and oranges, yes I know, thank you everyone [edit]: Unemployment: supposedly 7.6 % (these are the number of people out of work that are seeking work) Yeah, I know I'm using 16 and above and under 18 but the different is negligible. So what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"? Marc
You calculated the reverse of the Employment Rate[^] which isn't the same as the Unemployment rate[^]. The sometimes quite large difference between those two numbers can be seen here[^]
Be excellent to each other. And... PARTY ON, DUDES! Abraham Lincoln
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You calculated the reverse of the Employment Rate[^] which isn't the same as the Unemployment rate[^]. The sometimes quite large difference between those two numbers can be seen here[^]
Be excellent to each other. And... PARTY ON, DUDES! Abraham Lincoln
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
You calculated the reverse of the Employment Rate[^] which isn't the same as the Unemployment rate[^].
Ah, that's a good point. The map was really interesting too! It's weird seeing unemployment rates of 8% but employment rates of only, say 56%! Marc
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I thought I'd have fun figuring out the "real" unemployment figure in the US. Here's what I've come up with: [edit](various edits as I realize I can't do math. It's amazing I can program.)[/edit] US population: 314 million Normal retirement age: 67 People age 65 or older: 41 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ Disabled, under age 65: 14 million http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat\_snapshot/ People under 18, 23% or 7 million approx http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html Full time employees: 117 million http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ Part time employees: 24 million (16 and older): http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/ 314 - 41 retired (oops, was 67, used retirement age by mistake!) ---- 273 - 14 disabled ---- 259 - 72 under 18 (arg, I can't do math!!! This was 7!) ---- 187 <--- this should be the # of employable people. FT + PT employed = 141 million % unemployed = (187 - 141) / 187, or ~ 25% [edit] comparing apples and oranges, yes I know, thank you everyone [edit]: Unemployment: supposedly 7.6 % (these are the number of people out of work that are seeking work) Yeah, I know I'm using 16 and above and under 18 but the different is negligible. So what portion of the population am I forgetting to subtract from the "employable"? Marc