How do you estimate time
-
My technique isn't too far from that:
- Take a wild-ass guess at the time it would take if I were certain the requirements were firm and that there would be no interruptions while I'm working on it;
- Double the number;
- Promote the unit to the next higher value.
So if I figure I could knock it out in an hour under "ideal" conditions, I estimate "2 days." If my wild-ass guess is two weeks, I submit an estimate of "4 months." And so forth.
The remarkable thing about this approach, which I first suggested as a gag of sorts, is that it's proved to be pretty reliable in practice -- seldom more than about 10% from the actual time required, and never more than 25% off. Somehow it accounts flexibly for requirements changes, imposition of unanticipated constraints, distractions and interruptions, and acts of God. There's a lesson in there, somewhere...
(This message is programming you in ways you cannot detect. Be afraid.)
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
(MyEstimation + 15%)*2, well, ±...
-
Richard MacCutchan wrote:
Think of a number, add 2 and multiply by 3.
After giving it some Deep Thought, I'll start with 12. :rolleyes:
"These people looked deep within my soul and assigned me a number based on the order in which I joined." - Homer
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
Usually I take a guess at first using the spec completeness and complexity and then I multiply by 2 or 3 depending on my knowledge of both the code and the architecture. How else do you expect to be seen as a miracle worker === Scotty STNG :laugh:
-
(MyEstimation + 15%)*2, well, ±...
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
-
Experience. It's not an exact science - it's guess work based on "how long this took me last time" plus a bit of "how accurate and complete is the spec?" with a soupcon of "what else do I have to do at the same time?" and some extra "padding time to make me look good". Occasionally there is also "How much am I being paid for this?" and "how much do I like this guy and want to do this?" Complex. So about 8.73 working days, probably.
-
Remember to offer to your customer (or boss) that they can get it done (1) fast, (2) cheap, or (3) good. Pick any two.
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
محمد م. محمد wrote:
How do you estimate time fir writing code?
Badly
CPallini wrote:
You cannot argue with agile people so just take the extreme approach and shoot him. :Smile:
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
There is something called COCOMO that was developed and used almost 30 years ago to estimate time although it may not be applicable exactly to your work. However, its approach of taking into account many various technical (e.g., estimated number of modules or lines of code) and human (e.g., number of developers on the team that are skilled and familiar with the technologies) factors is going in the right direction. But not matter what estimates are produced, management will browbeat the time downward and the development team almost always work like hell to meet the deadline.
-
محمد م. محمد wrote:
How do you estimate time fir writing code?
Badly
CPallini wrote:
You cannot argue with agile people so just take the extreme approach and shoot him. :Smile:
-
Shelby Robertson wrote:
CPallini wrote:
You cannot argue with agile people so just take the extreme approach and shoot him.
:Smile:Are you referring that all agile people are males?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
محمد م. محمد wrote:
Are you referring that all agile people are males?
Yes. I think its illegal to shoot female software developers, as they are an endangered species.
CPallini wrote:
You cannot argue with agile people so just take the extreme approach and shoot him. :Smile:
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
I start by estimating a number based on experience. I only use factors of ~2. e.g. 1h, 2h, 4h, 8h, 1d, 2d, 4d, 2w, 1m, etc. Anything more specific is just a guess. Then I quadruple it. 1/4 is to make up for the fact that I'm lying to myself about how long it will take. 1/4 is for when I come across bug X in component Y and waste a day or more on it. 1/4 of that is so I can properly document the project, code, and write a developer's manual. I am meticulous about keeping track of my time, and lately I have been within 10% of my estimate. :cool:
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
It doesn't matter how you estimate it, because whatever you think it will take you, it'll take longer... Or just come up with a guesstimate and multiply it by two.
CEO at: - Rafaga Systems - Para Facturas - Modern Components for the moment...
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
I used to get stuck doing estimates, turns out I was fairly good at it, even though I hated every minute of it. They made me estimate the pieces and then brick them into a Microsoft Project file. I always gave them a tirade about how stupid that was, complaining all the while about what I called "Horizon Effect" (You see the mountain you want to climb in the distance, you bring pitons, ropes, and supplies, but after you get over the horizon you find that deep canyon and the fast running river running through it. Oops) But then I'd do it. Can't say how I did it. I'll guess that I looked at the complexity and could somehow estimate the volume of code which translates to how long it will take to write it. But that's experience talking about doing something similar to what I've done before. If it is totally new, all bets are off, that requires research and you don't know how deep that rabbit hole goes.
Psychosis at 10 Film at 11 Those who do not remember the past, are doomed to repeat it. Those who do not remember the past, cannot build upon it.
-
How do you estimate time fir writing code? If your manager ask you to give him a time for something to be done?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
If you think it will take an hour estimate a work-day, if you can do it in a day, estimate 5 work days, a week -> 2 months. It's amazing how that works out to be pretty accurate. With the hour, you start coding, 10 minutes in, you go "what about..." You hunt down the guy who knows, get the answer. Start coding, someone asks you... By the end of the day snarl at anyone who dares approach you and finish the one hour project to be within estimate.
-
Take the number they give you and multiply it by PI (3.14), for going around in circles.
-
محمد م. محمد wrote:
Are you referring that all agile people are males?
Yes. I think its illegal to shoot female software developers, as they are an endangered species.
CPallini wrote:
You cannot argue with agile people so just take the extreme approach and shoot him. :Smile:
-
I start by estimating a number based on experience. I only use factors of ~2. e.g. 1h, 2h, 4h, 8h, 1d, 2d, 4d, 2w, 1m, etc. Anything more specific is just a guess. Then I quadruple it. 1/4 is to make up for the fact that I'm lying to myself about how long it will take. 1/4 is for when I come across bug X in component Y and waste a day or more on it. 1/4 of that is so I can properly document the project, code, and write a developer's manual. I am meticulous about keeping track of my time, and lately I have been within 10% of my estimate. :cool:
Yvan Rodrigues wrote:
Then I quadruple it.
1/4 is to make up for the fact that I'm lying to myself about how long it will take.
1/4 is for when I come across bug X in component Y and waste a day or more on it.
1/4 of that is so I can properly document the project, code, and write a developer's manual.Where did the remaining 1/4 go?
My Name in English[^] Translation done By OriginalGriff
