The end of Software Development as a profession
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
This really makes no sense. Free software has been around for decades already, and I still have a job. (2b || !2b)
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
We'll all become consultants telling people how to configure their free software and getting double the rate we get as developers ;)
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
I can't agree. In fact, I'd go as far as to say it's a load of old cobblers. ;P Why? Well, let's start with the stats: UK students taking IT courses are down because of two reasons: 1. People associate coding with geeks, and that image is becoming more (not less) prevalent. Unfortunately (or fortunately, for those of us already coding), the large sums of cash being offered for good programmers aren't large enough to change that view point. 2. Enrollment isn't increasing in other disciplines, it's decreasing oveall, due to the higher course costs and increased levels of debt students find themselves in when they leave further education. Free software isn't damaging the industry, and never will. Why? Because the only people good enough to write code for linux, gnu, etc. are people who are paid coders who do the free stuff in their own time. E.g., I wrote Webreaper (see link) in my spare time, but could only afford to do it because I have a full-time 'real' development job. If free coding stopped paid coding, then it would eventually die - somebody has to pay for our cokes and pizzas. ;) But the main reason coding will continue to be a good earner is that development requirements are expanding exponentially, and there is already a skills shortage. And where a shortage exists, a market will continue. It's as simple as that..... I'm not worried, anyway! Mark ________________________ http://www.webreaper.net
-
We'll all become consultants telling people how to configure their free software and getting double the rate we get as developers ;)
You sound like Scott Adams... ;) :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer: (2b || !2b) :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:
-
I can't agree. In fact, I'd go as far as to say it's a load of old cobblers. ;P Why? Well, let's start with the stats: UK students taking IT courses are down because of two reasons: 1. People associate coding with geeks, and that image is becoming more (not less) prevalent. Unfortunately (or fortunately, for those of us already coding), the large sums of cash being offered for good programmers aren't large enough to change that view point. 2. Enrollment isn't increasing in other disciplines, it's decreasing oveall, due to the higher course costs and increased levels of debt students find themselves in when they leave further education. Free software isn't damaging the industry, and never will. Why? Because the only people good enough to write code for linux, gnu, etc. are people who are paid coders who do the free stuff in their own time. E.g., I wrote Webreaper (see link) in my spare time, but could only afford to do it because I have a full-time 'real' development job. If free coding stopped paid coding, then it would eventually die - somebody has to pay for our cokes and pizzas. ;) But the main reason coding will continue to be a good earner is that development requirements are expanding exponentially, and there is already a skills shortage. And where a shortage exists, a market will continue. It's as simple as that..... I'm not worried, anyway! Mark ________________________ http://www.webreaper.net
The thing that strikes me, is that although free source code is fantastic in bringing lots of heards together to work for a common good. Industry has little or no confidence in using this software, because of the lack of definate support they would get if they used commercial software. Alternatively, lets suppose that free software really does get the better of commercial software houses. The amount of software would decline because less and less people can't afford to write the software full-time, but in a world which is demanding more and more software, if they want the software then they have to pay someone to write it. Bespoke systems will always bounce back over the all-singing all-dancing free stuff.;) Philip =)
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
Reports on the "death of programming" have been around forever. User needs and expectations will always be one step ahead of what we can produce, free or not. I have also seen stats which indicate that regardless of the number of programmers who graduate from school, the total number of people who are actually able to do it professionally remains constant. Just because someone learned the syntax of a programming language doesn't mean they can program any more than learning to speak gives you the ability to sing. Someday, someone will invent a computer that can actually think, and program itself. When that happens, no one will have a job.
-
Reports on the "death of programming" have been around forever. User needs and expectations will always be one step ahead of what we can produce, free or not. I have also seen stats which indicate that regardless of the number of programmers who graduate from school, the total number of people who are actually able to do it professionally remains constant. Just because someone learned the syntax of a programming language doesn't mean they can program any more than learning to speak gives you the ability to sing. Someday, someone will invent a computer that can actually think, and program itself. When that happens, no one will have a job.
Someday, someone will invent a computer that can actually think, and program itself. When that happens, no one will have a job I think Church and Turin came up with a couple of theories which prove that we're safe from that eventuality. :-D Mark ________________________ http://www.webreaper.net
-
You sound like Scott Adams... ;) :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer: (2b || !2b) :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:
Whats that beer( :beer: ) icon doing there?????? maXallion
"Don't drink and derive!" - The Code Devil
www.maxallion.de - coded evil & more -
Whats that beer( :beer: ) icon doing there?????? maXallion
"Don't drink and derive!" - The Code Devil
www.maxallion.de - coded evil & moreIts the special CP Beer. Beats Fosters! (2b || !2b)
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
I've heard some analysis a couple of days ago that estimate that US will be about 1.5 million programmers short by 2003. I don't suppose that employers will be offering no pay to attract people to those positions. ;)
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
No worries. I can always fall back on an invention I came up with that I call the "Latex Appendage Suit". If that fails, I can always do something else in the porn industry. *Everybody* can do porn because it's got such a diverse audience, and in a lot of cases, it doesn't matter what you look like (in my case, that would be a good thing).
-
You sound like Scott Adams... ;) :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer: (2b || !2b) :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:
-
Its the special CP Beer. Beats Fosters! (2b || !2b)
( 2:beer: || !2:beer: ) maXallion
"Don't drink and derive!" - The Code Devil
www.maxallion.de - coded evil & more -
Its the special CP Beer. Beats Fosters! (2b || !2b)
Hey, anything beats Fosters (especially in the UK)... Andy Metcalfe - Sonardyne International Ltd
(andy.metcalfe@lineone.net)
http://www.resorg.co.uk"I used to be a medieval re-enactor, but I'm (nearly) alright now..."
-
No worries. I can always fall back on an invention I came up with that I call the "Latex Appendage Suit". If that fails, I can always do something else in the porn industry. *Everybody* can do porn because it's got such a diverse audience, and in a lot of cases, it doesn't matter what you look like (in my case, that would be a good thing).
That brings a whole new meaning to the phrase "moonlighting"...:-O Andy Metcalfe - Sonardyne International Ltd
(andy.metcalfe@lineone.net)
http://www.resorg.co.uk"I used to be a medieval re-enactor, but I'm (nearly) alright now..."
-
How about Douglas... (2b || !2b)
-
I've heard some analysis a couple of days ago that estimate that US will be about 1.5 million programmers short by 2003. I don't suppose that employers will be offering no pay to attract people to those positions. ;)
Those studies are seriously flawed, and have not taken into account the internet collapse that has literally dumped the programming market into the toilet. Pay scales are decreasing because there are tons of overqualified people on the market willing to work for peanuts just so they can have ANY job.
-
Those studies are seriously flawed, and have not taken into account the internet collapse that has literally dumped the programming market into the toilet. Pay scales are decreasing because there are tons of overqualified people on the market willing to work for peanuts just so they can have ANY job.
I just wonder, where do you find all these "overqualified" people? My company is hiring ever since the so-called "internet collapse" have started and we yet to interview anyone who can put a couple of lines of code together. Every programmer that I know (please do not confuse with the people who just think that they are programmers) still have jobs or find jobs as soon as they need one and some of them even sooner. ;) Perhaps I am just too naive, but I believe that anyone who truly knows what they are doing will have little trouble finding a job, even with the "internet collapse" on our hands. As to the US economy slowdown, I do not think it is going to last for years. It is getting back on track as we speak.
-
I thought about not posting this because then I would have to link to the original message which is on a forum of a competing website. However, I thought it was interesting enough to link to from here, so here goes: http://www.codeguru.com/cgi-bin/bbs/wt/showpost.pl?Board=general&Number=1550&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5 Here's part of the message text if you don't want to follow the link: "There is a threat to Software Engineering as a profession that will probably see it on the wane to such an extent that I cannot see anybody making money as an IT developer again after the end of this decade. Suprisingly, the threat comes from free software development (GNU,Linux, GIMP etc.). You see, once people are getting this kind of powerful software for free they will not be inclined to pay for the other stuff. When this happens, software houses will not be able to finance developmenmt of software and the pace of change will go from blistering to stagnant. In this environment students will not be willing to invest the large amount of money that is required to achieve a university degree in an IT discipline when you have less chance of paid employment in that field than business,management or even geography majors. Don't believe me? Look at the stats - the number of students choosing IT and IT related degrees this year in the UK is down on last year despite increasing enrollment in most other disciplines and despite a well documented skills crisis. Why? They're smart enough to know that it has no great future. My advise would be to retrain in something that cannot be given away free - 'cos you and I are going to be flipping burgers otherwise ;-)"
"well documented skill crisis"? Look at: Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.real.html It says there are tons of programmers and employers can easily push on salaries of young people and kick out everybody over 40. Blaming opensource is total mispiss.