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A million of Martians

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  • R Rick York

    If you are into science fiction books I highly recommend reading the Mars series of books by Kim Stanley Robinson. It is about the process of terraforming and settling Mars. The trilogy of books takes place over several hundred years and is quite fascinating. The books are titled Red Mars, Green Mars, and Blue Mars. Highly recommended!

    "They have a consciousness, they have a life, they have a soul! Damn you! Let the rabbits wear glasses! Save our brothers! Can I get an amen?"

    K Offline
    K Offline
    kalberts
    wrote on last edited by
    #16

    I do read a fair amount of SciFi, but consider them science fiction. The author is free to ignore any law of nature, any technical problems, and may assume whatever issue "solved two thousand years ago". Most (high quality) SciFi does not aim to solve practical issues, but to create a setting for discussing a large set of other, usually non-technical issues. So while I might pick up that Mars series (I am not familiar with it), what I am curious about this time is the Science part rather than the Fiction part.

    R D 2 Replies Last reply
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    • T Tomas Takac

      One person is seven or eight trees’ worth in terms of oxygen. But distance from the Sun will definitely be a factor here. Martian polar caps are mostly CO2, no luck here. Maybe there is some frozen water underground. Or you can get some water from comets if you can make them crash on Mars. Sun will be our only energy source so electricity will power everything.

      K Offline
      K Offline
      kalberts
      wrote on last edited by
      #17

      Tomas Takac wrote:

      Martian polar caps are mostly CO2, no luck here.

      Scientists may not have reached an agreement, or your sources may be outdated, or Wikipedias sources may be outdated: Wikipedia states, in the introduction to the "Mars" article: "The two polar ice caps appear to be made largely of water". This is so far from my own field of expertise that I will file both alternatives under "Some say this, some say that".

      T 1 Reply Last reply
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      • K kalberts

        Last Monday, the CP Daily News brought the link to Elon Musk Says He’ll Put A Million People on Mars By 2050[^]. This set me thinking: Recycling water is quite straightforward. Recycling oxygen not so. I do not have enough information to even estimate how may tons of oxygen a million humans require a day. (A ton is a million grams, one gram per person.) Can anyone put me on the right track? Next question: How many plants does it take to produce a ton of oxygen a day? Obviously, a huge pine tree will produce more than, say, a tomato plant. I guess that plants will have to double as both oxygen and food sources; there wouldn't be room of huge forests within that plastic bubble. Do food plants vary a lot in their oxygen prodction capabilities? With Mars being roughly speaking at 1.5 times the Earth's distance from the sun, solar radiation is at 40-45% of Earth levels; I guess that could affect the photosynthesis. When the type and required number of plants, of various kinds, have been determined, we could try to estimate how much water would be bound in these plants and their soil. Transporting that water from earth would be a major taks. So would be an effort to break it loose from the south pole ice-cap and transport it the 2500 km to equatorial land, melt it and heat it up to a temperature suitable for the plants. With no oxygen available, we can't use diesel trucks for transportation, or any tool requiring oxygen for cutting the ice. (We obviously could cover half of the Martian surface with solar cells to produce electricity for electrolyzing the south pole ice cap, rather than using the water for growing plants. That is certainly not in the "sustainable" group of alternatives - and how much solar panels would it require? I suspect that the panels would all have to be brought from Earth.) I really liked the kind of analysis made in The World Without Us[^] by Alan Wiesman, and wish that someone would make a similarly scientifically founded evaluation of the realism of a one million people Mars colony. Well, I suspect that it could easily end up more like Solar FREAKING Roadways, Are they REAL?[

        M Offline
        M Offline
        Mark_Wallace
        wrote on last edited by
        #18

        Fred Pohl's Man Plus covered most of the problems, years decades ago.

        I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!

        K 1 Reply Last reply
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        • T Tomas Takac

          One person is seven or eight trees’ worth in terms of oxygen. But distance from the Sun will definitely be a factor here. Martian polar caps are mostly CO2, no luck here. Maybe there is some frozen water underground. Or you can get some water from comets if you can make them crash on Mars. Sun will be our only energy source so electricity will power everything.

          K Offline
          K Offline
          kalberts
          wrote on last edited by
          #19

          Tomas Takac wrote:

          One person is seven or eight trees’ worth in terms of oxygen.

          Thanks! That directly answers one of my intial questions. Of course this is only a microscopic fractions of the questions that must be answered to build a Mars colony - but on the other hand, the answer has a great value here on earth as well!)

          1 Reply Last reply
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          • K kalberts

            Last Monday, the CP Daily News brought the link to Elon Musk Says He’ll Put A Million People on Mars By 2050[^]. This set me thinking: Recycling water is quite straightforward. Recycling oxygen not so. I do not have enough information to even estimate how may tons of oxygen a million humans require a day. (A ton is a million grams, one gram per person.) Can anyone put me on the right track? Next question: How many plants does it take to produce a ton of oxygen a day? Obviously, a huge pine tree will produce more than, say, a tomato plant. I guess that plants will have to double as both oxygen and food sources; there wouldn't be room of huge forests within that plastic bubble. Do food plants vary a lot in their oxygen prodction capabilities? With Mars being roughly speaking at 1.5 times the Earth's distance from the sun, solar radiation is at 40-45% of Earth levels; I guess that could affect the photosynthesis. When the type and required number of plants, of various kinds, have been determined, we could try to estimate how much water would be bound in these plants and their soil. Transporting that water from earth would be a major taks. So would be an effort to break it loose from the south pole ice-cap and transport it the 2500 km to equatorial land, melt it and heat it up to a temperature suitable for the plants. With no oxygen available, we can't use diesel trucks for transportation, or any tool requiring oxygen for cutting the ice. (We obviously could cover half of the Martian surface with solar cells to produce electricity for electrolyzing the south pole ice cap, rather than using the water for growing plants. That is certainly not in the "sustainable" group of alternatives - and how much solar panels would it require? I suspect that the panels would all have to be brought from Earth.) I really liked the kind of analysis made in The World Without Us[^] by Alan Wiesman, and wish that someone would make a similarly scientifically founded evaluation of the realism of a one million people Mars colony. Well, I suspect that it could easily end up more like Solar FREAKING Roadways, Are they REAL?[

            D Offline
            D Offline
            Dave Kreskowiak
            wrote on last edited by
            #20

            Ever notice how there's entire flock of people who fawn over every word Elon says without thinking about what he's saying? Yeah, this is one of those cases. All marketing. No substance.

            Asking questions is a skill CodeProject Forum Guidelines Google: C# How to debug code Seriously, go read these articles.
            Dave Kreskowiak

            D 1 Reply Last reply
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            • K kalberts

              I do read a fair amount of SciFi, but consider them science fiction. The author is free to ignore any law of nature, any technical problems, and may assume whatever issue "solved two thousand years ago". Most (high quality) SciFi does not aim to solve practical issues, but to create a setting for discussing a large set of other, usually non-technical issues. So while I might pick up that Mars series (I am not familiar with it), what I am curious about this time is the Science part rather than the Fiction part.

              R Offline
              R Offline
              Rick York
              wrote on last edited by
              #21

              Generally, that is true. KSR is a little different in that he describes the science behind most of his premises. David Brin does that quite a bit too since he is in fact a scientist.

              "They have a consciousness, they have a life, they have a soul! Damn you! Let the rabbits wear glasses! Save our brothers! Can I get an amen?"

              K 1 Reply Last reply
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              • J Johnny J

                I was thinking about that. I propose we start building a list of preferred candidates for everybody to vote on! :doh: If we start with all politicians and all lawyers, we should be well on our way towards a million...

                Anything that is unrelated to elephants is irrelephant
                Anonymous
                -----
                The problem with quotes on the internet is that you can never tell if they're genuine
                Winston Churchill, 1944
                -----
                Never argue with a fool. Onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
                Mark Twain

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                D Offline
                DRHuff
                wrote on last edited by
                #22

                I believe Douglas Adams already figured out that we need to send the telephone sanitizers, hairdressers, jingle writers, accountants, etc.

                I, for one, like Roman Numerals.

                1 Reply Last reply
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                • M Mark_Wallace

                  Fred Pohl's Man Plus covered most of the problems, years decades ago.

                  I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!

                  K Offline
                  K Offline
                  kalberts
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #23

                  May be an interesting read - but it is classified as science Fiction, not a science. I pointed to "The World Without Us" because it is classified as Science (although somewhat popularized). The author (and his informants) have not take the freedom to ignore nature's laws when they are a hindrance for the progress of the story. I haven't read Man Plus, and the book may have a general respect for scientific knowledge, but when it is labeled as fiction, you cannot be certain of it. (And, the Wikipedia article does not give any impression of this story carrying any realism. E.g. the brain is one of they body's major consumers of oxygen, and that will prevail even if you create an artificial body.)

                  M 1 Reply Last reply
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                  • K kalberts

                    Last Monday, the CP Daily News brought the link to Elon Musk Says He’ll Put A Million People on Mars By 2050[^]. This set me thinking: Recycling water is quite straightforward. Recycling oxygen not so. I do not have enough information to even estimate how may tons of oxygen a million humans require a day. (A ton is a million grams, one gram per person.) Can anyone put me on the right track? Next question: How many plants does it take to produce a ton of oxygen a day? Obviously, a huge pine tree will produce more than, say, a tomato plant. I guess that plants will have to double as both oxygen and food sources; there wouldn't be room of huge forests within that plastic bubble. Do food plants vary a lot in their oxygen prodction capabilities? With Mars being roughly speaking at 1.5 times the Earth's distance from the sun, solar radiation is at 40-45% of Earth levels; I guess that could affect the photosynthesis. When the type and required number of plants, of various kinds, have been determined, we could try to estimate how much water would be bound in these plants and their soil. Transporting that water from earth would be a major taks. So would be an effort to break it loose from the south pole ice-cap and transport it the 2500 km to equatorial land, melt it and heat it up to a temperature suitable for the plants. With no oxygen available, we can't use diesel trucks for transportation, or any tool requiring oxygen for cutting the ice. (We obviously could cover half of the Martian surface with solar cells to produce electricity for electrolyzing the south pole ice cap, rather than using the water for growing plants. That is certainly not in the "sustainable" group of alternatives - and how much solar panels would it require? I suspect that the panels would all have to be brought from Earth.) I really liked the kind of analysis made in The World Without Us[^] by Alan Wiesman, and wish that someone would make a similarly scientifically founded evaluation of the realism of a one million people Mars colony. Well, I suspect that it could easily end up more like Solar FREAKING Roadways, Are they REAL?[

                    G Offline
                    G Offline
                    Gary Wheeler
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #24

                    He said he'd put a million people on Mars by 2050. He didn't say they'd be alive when they got there. It's probably feasible now to put samples of the cremated remains of 1 million people on a vehicle and have it soft land on Mars.

                    Software Zen: delete this;

                    D C 2 Replies Last reply
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                    • F F ES Sitecore

                      Solve propulsion problem to allow us to get to Mars [ ] Solve renewable water problem [ ] Solve renewable oxygen problem [ ] Solve renewable energy problem [ ] Build Starbucks [ ] Transport people

                      D Offline
                      D Offline
                      Dan Neely
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #25

                      F-ES Sitecore wrote:

                      Solve propulsion problem to allow us to get to Mars

                      Starship SN01 is being built in open sided tents in Texas today.

                      Solve renewable water problem

                      Land at a location where orbital sensing indicates large amounts of water frozen a few meters down in the regolith. Then start mining. The amount needed as an input (along with CO2) to the sabatier process to create the methane needed as fuel for the trip home and as a backup power source during sandstorms will dwarf that needed for human consumption.

                      Solve renewable oxygen problem

                      The previous step gets this one for free because you want to run your rocket engines fuel rich in order to keep the chamber temperatures low enough to avoid melting and burning them.

                      Solve renewable energy problem

                      Tesla and Solar City.

                      Build Starbucks

                      I'm pretty sure he can get Starbucks to pay him for the privilege of being the first franchise opened on Mars. (Just threaten to go to Dunkin Donuts, McDonalds, etc instead.) :-\

                      Transport people

                      Build a bunch of Starships. To fund doing this he's building Starlink; which is expected to a be $15-30bn/year printing press for money. And although you neglected it, The Boring Companies tunneling machines can be used to dig the large underground vaults needed to build habitats on Mars. Elon's reach may exceed his grasp; but all of the projects he's juggling feed into his long term goal.

                      Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason? Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful? --Zachris Topelius Training a telescope on one’s own belly button will only reveal lint. You like that? You go right on staring at it. I prefer looking at galaxies. -- Sarah Hoyt

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                      • Mike HankeyM Mike Hankey

                        The Native Martians will provide for and take care of them until they become self sufficient enough to take their land and exterminate them.

                        It's been 6 months since I joined the gym and there's been no progress. I'm going there tomorrow in person to find out what's really going on! JaxCoder.com

                        G Offline
                        G Offline
                        Gary Wheeler
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #26

                        Mike Hankey wrote:

                        take their land and exterminate them

                        Robert Heinlein[^] demonstrated that's not likely to happen.

                        Software Zen: delete this;

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • R Rick York

                          Generally, that is true. KSR is a little different in that he describes the science behind most of his premises. David Brin does that quite a bit too since he is in fact a scientist.

                          "They have a consciousness, they have a life, they have a soul! Damn you! Let the rabbits wear glasses! Save our brothers! Can I get an amen?"

                          K Offline
                          K Offline
                          kalberts
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #27

                          Sidetracking a little here: I will say the same about James P. Hogan. I have a Comp.Sci Masters degree and 40 years of experience, judging his books from the perspective of a computer expert. I picked up the 1979 "The two faces of tomorrow" again not too long ago, and it still holds up. "Realtime Interrupt", 16 years later (but 25 years old today) still raises essential questions that cannot be pushed aside. (And a few of my collagues, to whom I have recommended the book, have had nights of bad sleep, essentially because the comp.sci parts still holds water after 25 years. As a computer professional, I know that the issues are real. People with less background tend to laugh it off as more or less pure fantasy. If I read books too far out of my own field of expertise, I would like to have other experts confirm the realism. For a Mars settlement, there are so many issues that it would take a large flock of experts in different areas to confirm the realism of it. That is what Weisman did with "The World Without Us". While he wrote the text, and is fully responsible for it, in every chapter he leans heavily of one or more top experts in the field. (Hogan also use to include thanks in he preface to those experts that have read through the manuscript to verify that there are no factual errors or impossibilities in the story.)

                          R 1 Reply Last reply
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                          • K kalberts

                            Tomas Takac wrote:

                            Martian polar caps are mostly CO2, no luck here.

                            Scientists may not have reached an agreement, or your sources may be outdated, or Wikipedias sources may be outdated: Wikipedia states, in the introduction to the "Mars" article: "The two polar ice caps appear to be made largely of water". This is so far from my own field of expertise that I will file both alternatives under "Some say this, some say that".

                            T Offline
                            T Offline
                            Tomas Takac
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #28

                            I checked Wikipedia and the permanent polar caps are made of water ice. The seasonal cover is from frozen carbon dioxide which sublimes in summer. I didn't know that. So you are right, there is enough water for a colony, but you'd need to melt it and transport to the colony in pipe I guess. I read somewhere there might be underground deposits of water ice which can occasionally melt during summer and even flow on the surface for a while. I don't have any reference for that however.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • K kalberts

                              I do read a fair amount of SciFi, but consider them science fiction. The author is free to ignore any law of nature, any technical problems, and may assume whatever issue "solved two thousand years ago". Most (high quality) SciFi does not aim to solve practical issues, but to create a setting for discussing a large set of other, usually non-technical issues. So while I might pick up that Mars series (I am not familiar with it), what I am curious about this time is the Science part rather than the Fiction part.

                              D Offline
                              D Offline
                              Dan Neely
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #29

                              KSR wrote what was reasonably solid hard SF at the time in designing the initial colonization ship and terraforming program; the biology stuff (anti-aging and brain reset) used to help keep some characters alive for centuries was always a bit iffier. The bigger issue at this point is just that he started writing in the 80's and some parts of his science/tech have become dated since. ex the first Mars ship was build out of US and Soviet Space Shuttle external tanks, and he totally missed the last 20 years of laptops and then phones providing computers everywhere. Caveat, it's been at least 15 years since I last read the books.

                              Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason? Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful? --Zachris Topelius Training a telescope on one’s own belly button will only reveal lint. You like that? You go right on staring at it. I prefer looking at galaxies. -- Sarah Hoyt

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • R Rob Philpott

                                Practicalities aside, I think it dubious that you'd find a million people willing to leave the lushness of Earth to die on a baron airless rock. It's not exactly Tahiti...

                                Regards, Rob Philpott.

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                                D Offline
                                dandy72
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #30

                                Rob Philpott wrote:

                                I think it dubious that you'd find a million people willing to leave the lushness of Earth to die on a baron airless rock

                                Did Elon specifically say anything about people volunteering for this...?

                                M 1 Reply Last reply
                                0
                                • D Dan Neely

                                  F-ES Sitecore wrote:

                                  Solve propulsion problem to allow us to get to Mars

                                  Starship SN01 is being built in open sided tents in Texas today.

                                  Solve renewable water problem

                                  Land at a location where orbital sensing indicates large amounts of water frozen a few meters down in the regolith. Then start mining. The amount needed as an input (along with CO2) to the sabatier process to create the methane needed as fuel for the trip home and as a backup power source during sandstorms will dwarf that needed for human consumption.

                                  Solve renewable oxygen problem

                                  The previous step gets this one for free because you want to run your rocket engines fuel rich in order to keep the chamber temperatures low enough to avoid melting and burning them.

                                  Solve renewable energy problem

                                  Tesla and Solar City.

                                  Build Starbucks

                                  I'm pretty sure he can get Starbucks to pay him for the privilege of being the first franchise opened on Mars. (Just threaten to go to Dunkin Donuts, McDonalds, etc instead.) :-\

                                  Transport people

                                  Build a bunch of Starships. To fund doing this he's building Starlink; which is expected to a be $15-30bn/year printing press for money. And although you neglected it, The Boring Companies tunneling machines can be used to dig the large underground vaults needed to build habitats on Mars. Elon's reach may exceed his grasp; but all of the projects he's juggling feed into his long term goal.

                                  Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason? Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful? --Zachris Topelius Training a telescope on one’s own belly button will only reveal lint. You like that? You go right on staring at it. I prefer looking at galaxies. -- Sarah Hoyt

                                  D Offline
                                  D Offline
                                  dandy72
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #31

                                  You gotta love an optimist... :-)

                                  D 1 Reply Last reply
                                  0
                                  • G Gary Wheeler

                                    He said he'd put a million people on Mars by 2050. He didn't say they'd be alive when they got there. It's probably feasible now to put samples of the cremated remains of 1 million people on a vehicle and have it soft land on Mars.

                                    Software Zen: delete this;

                                    D Offline
                                    D Offline
                                    Daniel Pfeffer
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #32

                                    Gary Wheeler wrote:

                                    It's probably feasible now to put samples of the cremated remains of 1 million people on a vehicle and have it soft land on Mars.

                                    If crooked politicians can vote the graveyard, why can't Elon? :D

                                    Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    0
                                    • D dandy72

                                      You gotta love an optimist... :-)

                                      D Offline
                                      D Offline
                                      Dan Neely
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #33

                                      There's a reason why space geeks joke about "Elon Time". :laugh:

                                      Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason? Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful? --Zachris Topelius Training a telescope on one’s own belly button will only reveal lint. You like that? You go right on staring at it. I prefer looking at galaxies. -- Sarah Hoyt

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      0
                                      • D Dave Kreskowiak

                                        Ever notice how there's entire flock of people who fawn over every word Elon says without thinking about what he's saying? Yeah, this is one of those cases. All marketing. No substance.

                                        Asking questions is a skill CodeProject Forum Guidelines Google: C# How to debug code Seriously, go read these articles.
                                        Dave Kreskowiak

                                        D Offline
                                        D Offline
                                        dandy72
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #34

                                        Dave Kreskowiak wrote:

                                        All marketing. No substance.

                                        I don't know about that. While I'm absolutely no fanboi of his, he did deliver on electric cars. And reusable rockets. And his tunnel boring machine. Any one of these is a lot more than most of his critics may have delivered.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
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                                        • K kalberts

                                          We had a discussion in the coffee corner about who we should urge to volunteer as settlers. I guess creating a list in this thread could lead to the thread being censored :-)

                                          D Offline
                                          D Offline
                                          Daniel Pfeffer
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #35

                                          As someday it may happen that a victim must be found
                                          I've got a little list
                                          I've got a little list
                                          Of Elon Muskés colonists, living underground
                                          And who never would be missed
                                          They never would be missed
                                          ...

                                          (With apologies to Messrs. Gilbert & Sullivan)

                                          Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.

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