The worst Corona could have done
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OriginalGriff wrote:
it kills 3.5% of all infected persons
I don't know how they managed to reach that percentage, but 5,846 deaths and 75,954 recovered[^] works out as 7.7%, for me. Maybe I just don't understand Maths as well as people who studied medicine.
OriginalGriff wrote:
groups of young people are a damn fine way to spread this around
They're closing hardly any schools in NL, because they say that children aren't as much at risk of getting bad cases, and rarely even have visible symptoms. What children are good at, however (particularly symptomless ones), is carrying diseases to their parents, aunties, uncles, grannies, grandpas, neighbours, and everyone else. The logic that rattles around in some people's (presumably empty) heads eludes me, sometimes. If you see a bunch of schoolchildren going home from school, go in the other direction.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
Mark_Wallace wrote:
If you see a bunch of schoolchildren going home from school, go in the other direction.
Oh, trust me - I've been doing that for decades! :laugh:
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
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Mark_Wallace wrote:
If you see a bunch of schoolchildren going home from school, go in the other direction.
Oh, trust me - I've been doing that for decades! :laugh:
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
OriginalGriff wrote:
Mark_Wallace wrote:
If you see a bunch of schoolchildren going home from school, go in the other direction.
Oh, trust me - I've been doing that for decades!
Ain't restraining orders a bitch?
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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He deleted the comment. I think you should too delete the quote
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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OriginalGriff wrote:
it kills 3.5% of all infected persons
I don't know how they managed to reach that percentage, but 5,846 deaths and 75,954 recovered[^] works out as 7.7%, for me. Maybe I just don't understand Maths as well as people who studied medicine.
OriginalGriff wrote:
groups of young people are a damn fine way to spread this around
They're closing hardly any schools in NL, because they say that children aren't as much at risk of getting bad cases, and rarely even have visible symptoms. What children are good at, however (particularly symptomless ones), is carrying diseases to their parents, aunties, uncles, grannies, grandpas, neighbours, and everyone else. The logic that rattles around in some people's (presumably empty) heads eludes me, sometimes. If you see a bunch of schoolchildren going home from school, go in the other direction.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
The problem with these numbers is that they aren't testing everyone. So they don't actually know who's had it or not. What we are seeing is an educated guess. Probably a better guess than most of us can come up with, but still a guess. Here they tried to test everyone in the infectuous chain until it was clear it's spreading in society. Now they only test the sick ones, to know how to keep the hospital personnel safer. That's all about using the resources as good as possible. There is only one (1) country that has the resources to test everyone that wants to get tested. So take a look at the numbers of South Korea for (possibly) better statistics. South Korea Coronavirus: 8,162 Cases and 75 Deaths - Worldometer[^] The other thing is that the first approximation from China that children doesn't spread the disease was probably quite wrong. Children isn't in the statistics because they never needed to go to hospital.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
that will start meeting up with each other anyway after a week or two
I believe this is less likely if they're home, because if they're still living around university, it's more tempting/easy to do so since most of your friends are living much more nearby. Even if you assume that everyone is responsible, student housing with shared accomodities seems like a good place to catch the virus. Sure, you're not with your parents, but you cannot guarantee complete separation of the younger and older generation -- some students could still go to their parents, and students also still have to go to stores to get food. It's unrealistic that different generations don't meet there. My university has moved all education activities to online platform, and asked students to go home if they could. So I'm home now and this is surely the place I'd rather be, despite being with my parents. It just feels safer for everyone.
Sorry... I clicked the wrong "reply" button. I am moving the message to the right place
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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And you think that will work? I think you will have a load of bored youth with nothing to do, that will start meeting up with each other anyway after a week or two, and still get sick. But now they live with their parents instead. <edit>after reading Amarnaths response below I realize I'm a bit optimistic here</edit>
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Still the numbers are different. If you meet your friends, you are moving within a moderated number of contact people. In the classes or in the cantine (college restaurant or whatever the name is) that numbers are much, much higher. When I was studying, I had some lessons where we were between 250 and 300 people in the room. And our cantine had sit places for 650 people (getting used 3 or 4 times in a row at rush hours). So yes... I see the point with "it is impossible to avoid spread", the point is not to avoid it, the point is to slow it down.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Now all sick students will go home to their parents...
Exactly. How is that going to help the situation? :|
Read my answer above. TLDR: It is impossible to stop. The point is to slow it down. And the numbers being home are lower than being in the campus.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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The problem is that we have no vaccine... So how many month will you shut-in those are not in real danger? A year? It would be much better to separate those are in the danger zone and let others immune system do the work for them... It will create a lot of sick people, but most of them (the real majority) will go home for two weeks and done with it... When the percentage of inflected pass the 25% barrier we will see a magical slow-down of the spread... As for now the fact that isolation slows down the spread has no meaning if you intend to release the people from isolation in a few months now - we will be back to square one then...
"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012
Let's see numbers in Germany... 80 million people, around 20 million in the risk group, 30k intensive places in hospitals... Numbers in Spain... 45 million people, around 12 million in the risk group, 10k intensive places in hospitals (and that being generous) And I suppose other countries are even worse preparated. If we don't slow it down... the hospitals will get full and won't be able to manage everything. So the more people of the risk group are infected at the same time, the higher will be the number of deads. And indirectly the higher will be the number of other victims, because hostpitals will be that full that maybe have not capacities for people having an accident or if there is a fire or whatever "normal" life has prepared. So trying to take care of elder people, there will be less speed of response to take care of the younger ones. I still prefer to be forced to stay home with bored kids and buying for 3 different housholds than the alternative of a collapsed system.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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He deleted the comment. I think you should too delete the quote
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Let's see numbers in Germany... 80 million people, around 20 million in the risk group, 30k intensive places in hospitals... Numbers in Spain... 45 million people, around 12 million in the risk group, 10k intensive places in hospitals (and that being generous) And I suppose other countries are even worse preparated. If we don't slow it down... the hospitals will get full and won't be able to manage everything. So the more people of the risk group are infected at the same time, the higher will be the number of deads. And indirectly the higher will be the number of other victims, because hostpitals will be that full that maybe have not capacities for people having an accident or if there is a fire or whatever "normal" life has prepared. So trying to take care of elder people, there will be less speed of response to take care of the younger ones. I still prefer to be forced to stay home with bored kids and buying for 3 different housholds than the alternative of a collapsed system.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
That's where you wrong IMHO... I do not know about the size of the risk group - but even in an 'old' country like Germany it is much less than the other... And not all - not even a fraction of those get infected will need to attend to hospital... As - and until - today they were hospitalized as a better way to separate them from others...
"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012
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Still the numbers are different. If you meet your friends, you are moving within a moderated number of contact people. In the classes or in the cantine (college restaurant or whatever the name is) that numbers are much, much higher. When I was studying, I had some lessons where we were between 250 and 300 people in the room. And our cantine had sit places for 650 people (getting used 3 or 4 times in a row at rush hours). So yes... I see the point with "it is impossible to avoid spread", the point is not to avoid it, the point is to slow it down.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
I'd even like to be more specific than that. The point is to keep it away from the more sensitive or important part of society. Namely the elderly and hospital staff, respectively. The vast majority of people getting hospitalized with Covid-19 are elderly. So those are the ones that should be prioritized to be kept away from the disease. And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children. Or the children will be taken care of by the grandparents, because mom is a nurse and would have to stay home otherwise. Counterintuitive? Oh yes! But think about it for a while. Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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And you think that will work? I think you will have a load of bored youth with nothing to do, that will start meeting up with each other anyway after a week or two, and still get sick. But now they live with their parents instead. <edit>after reading Amarnaths response below I realize I'm a bit optimistic here</edit>
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
There is no perfect solution. Wherever you send people you are sending potential or active carriers and certainly additional vectors. Was/is the OP's situation the best solution? I don't have experience in these matters but avoiding larger crowds should (at least theoretically) slow the rate of transmission. One infectious carrier will have fewer contacts. The China method would work = force all the students (and for that matter, everyone else) to stay put. Let the contagion run its course in isolation - bury the bodies and then, I suppose, "all is well". Keeping the students at school reminds of a recent event on a cruise ship in a Japanese harbor. That didn't work out well. It may be that every last one of us gets this - however, the longer it takes the more chance there will treatment/prevention will have been discovered and the better chance, if you need a ventilator it there will be one available.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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No, the idea is to take the strain off the medical facilities by spreading the infection out over a longer period. If 1000 people get it on the same day, that's a lot of stress on limited resources. If the same 1000 people get it at a rate of ten a day, then the stress on resources is lower in the short term and it can be managed better. Instead of having 900 people on trolleys in corridors wondering when they get a share of the oxygen tank, you get a much smaller number on beds with "proper care". And bored students at home is one thing, bored students in a hostel full of other bored, randy, pisshead / dopehead students is entirely another! (Or had you forgotten your Uni days? :laugh: )
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
I listened to the whole of the UK government announcement(the three chaps including the PM) and could see that the government is really stuck between a Scylla and Charybdis. The Scylla of covid19 and the Charybdis of the economy failing. I think that without hindsight there is no really a good choice to make at the moment. If everyone is asked to work from home - transport, hospitality and other sectors will suffer greatly. If everyone can go about there everyday business, covid19 will probably spread and transport, hospitality and other sectors will suffer greatly. The 'flattening the curve' approach that the UK government is taking does seem to be a sensible one to me. I have been out of work for a week, on holiday, but reading through my emails today I see we have been asked to work from home. The interesting part, the email does not mention for how long - everyone is flying blind on this.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
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There is no perfect solution. Wherever you send people you are sending potential or active carriers and certainly additional vectors. Was/is the OP's situation the best solution? I don't have experience in these matters but avoiding larger crowds should (at least theoretically) slow the rate of transmission. One infectious carrier will have fewer contacts. The China method would work = force all the students (and for that matter, everyone else) to stay put. Let the contagion run its course in isolation - bury the bodies and then, I suppose, "all is well". Keeping the students at school reminds of a recent event on a cruise ship in a Japanese harbor. That didn't work out well. It may be that every last one of us gets this - however, the longer it takes the more chance there will treatment/prevention will have been discovered and the better chance, if you need a ventilator it there will be one available.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
There is no perfect solution
God knows that you're right about that. Only complete morons are sure about the right solution.
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
Keeping the students at school reminds of a recent event on a cruise ship in a Japanese harbor. That didn't work out well.
Maybe it was the best for Japan, imagine what would have happened in Yokohama if 700 potentially contagious people had gone ashore. Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
There is no perfect solution
God knows that you're right about that. Only complete morons are sure about the right solution.
W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
Keeping the students at school reminds of a recent event on a cruise ship in a Japanese harbor. That didn't work out well.
Maybe it was the best for Japan, imagine what would have happened in Yokohama if 700 potentially contagious people had gone ashore. Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.
Sort of one of my background mental processes when looking at options that could have (should have?) been taken. It's like climbing a tree. Every now and then we have to choose between branches. The branches further availed us are based upon each choice. From our ever-changing perch in the tree we can often see options offer only via other paths we didn't take - and some might look better. Be we need to pick a branch at each intersection and climb it - holding on for dear life no matter what the option because letting go is not a good option. My younger brother puts it as "shoulda', coulda', woulda'"
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.
Sort of one of my background mental processes when looking at options that could have (should have?) been taken. It's like climbing a tree. Every now and then we have to choose between branches. The branches further availed us are based upon each choice. From our ever-changing perch in the tree we can often see options offer only via other paths we didn't take - and some might look better. Be we need to pick a branch at each intersection and climb it - holding on for dear life no matter what the option because letting go is not a good option. My younger brother puts it as "shoulda', coulda', woulda'"
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
I like the tree-climbing analogy. And if I may expand on it: If you climb the same tree many times you learn the best way of climbing that tree. If you climb many different trees you'll learn to estimate the best way to climb. (Or to bring climbing tools) But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
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My university is undergoing quarantine. All the classes have been cancelled, midterms postponed and all. We can't avail any facilities like gym or squash courts (now where am I supposed to take out my frustration :mad: ). Worst is, we are being kicked out of hostels and forced to go home. Like why can't we do this quarantine thing at hostels and labs. I still have tons of work to finish. How am I supposed to do research at home? :| I had squash tournament going on and my team qualified for nationals which is a big thing at least for me but here we are with Corona......EVERYTHING cancelled. I was literally completely unbothered by the virus until now since I'm not afraid of dying or what so ever but this shut-down is making me go nuts now. I think this shut down is much worse than virus itself. Bankruptcy rate will go much higher than death rate. Whatever :|
This isn't about you, even if you do get it likely you'll recover quickly because your young and strong. But you'll come in contact with old farts like me that already have problems and would likely not survive.
Monday starts Diarrhea awareness week, runs until Friday! JaxCoder.com
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I'd even like to be more specific than that. The point is to keep it away from the more sensitive or important part of society. Namely the elderly and hospital staff, respectively. The vast majority of people getting hospitalized with Covid-19 are elderly. So those are the ones that should be prioritized to be kept away from the disease. And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children. Or the children will be taken care of by the grandparents, because mom is a nurse and would have to stay home otherwise. Counterintuitive? Oh yes! But think about it for a while. Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children.
I don't know in your place, but here, schools and kindergartens have a so called "emergency service". This means they are only "closed" for the average citizen, those parents who work in emergency jobs (medical staff, police, firemen...) and in some places even those who are part (and can prove it) of an important delivery chain for foods and 1st necessity items can still bring the kids to the school.
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.
Agree... or like in a city in spain... people closed at home and a group of elder people playing "petanca" in a park, they that are the ones who the whole damn thing is supposed to be done for. :doh: :doh: :sigh: :sigh: :mad::mad::mad:
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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I like the tree-climbing analogy. And if I may expand on it: If you climb the same tree many times you learn the best way of climbing that tree. If you climb many different trees you'll learn to estimate the best way to climb. (Or to bring climbing tools) But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello
Jörgen Andersson wrote:
But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.
And that's something I have already told a couple of times... the worst thing is... we will probably not learn from this as a society, some individuals will learn of course, but as a whole... we will have the same errors the next time. And then, the virus may be even more mortal.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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That's where you wrong IMHO... I do not know about the size of the risk group - but even in an 'old' country like Germany it is much less than the other... And not all - not even a fraction of those get infected will need to attend to hospital... As - and until - today they were hospitalized as a better way to separate them from others...
"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012
Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter wrote:
That's where you wrong IMHO... I do not know about the size of the risk group - but even in an 'old' country like Germany it is much less than the other...
And I think you missunderstood me. I don't want to have the system collapsed by old people that are going to die anyways in a couple of years. If I need to go to the hospital with my kids because whatever, and I don't get attended because they run out of capacity and / or the medics are infected themselves... I would go nuts. I am not trying to protect the elder, I think this is good to protect us all.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
