Corona weekly pattern
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The "Daily New cases" and "Daily Deaths" at Worldometers.info[^] shows a markedly weekly rythm: Appearently far fewer people catch the virus during the weekend, which I strongly doubt (but I certainly recognize that we are talking about detecting the infection, not cathcing it). But, for the deaths, following the same pattern: The virus knows nothing about weekdays. I strongly suspect that there really are as many Saturday and Sunday deaths as Monday and Tuesday deaths. I could, for myself, make a smoother curve, displaying the average death count the last three days. Yet... The death of a patient is sort of essential, isn't it? You don't just show up at work Monday morning to discover, "Hey, we have got a few more dead people around here!" The weekend personnel must have known. What I am trying to get through: We cannot trust the reporting of Corona deaths (or maybe even any other deaths) to be up to date, complete, or accurate. If, for a significant number patients, even the date of their death cannot be reported accurately, then we cannot expect much higher reliability regarding the death cause. If they probably would have survived the stroke/heart attack if they hadn't been weakened by their corona infection, should it be filed as a corona death or a stroke/hear attack death? In the current political climate, that is certainly a political decision as much as a medical one. The very pronounced weekly pattern is just an indicator that corona cases/death reports must be judged critially, they must be evaluated in the right context. They are not absolute values. And they are subject to policital considerations (or even political directives).
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The "Daily New cases" and "Daily Deaths" at Worldometers.info[^] shows a markedly weekly rythm: Appearently far fewer people catch the virus during the weekend, which I strongly doubt (but I certainly recognize that we are talking about detecting the infection, not cathcing it). But, for the deaths, following the same pattern: The virus knows nothing about weekdays. I strongly suspect that there really are as many Saturday and Sunday deaths as Monday and Tuesday deaths. I could, for myself, make a smoother curve, displaying the average death count the last three days. Yet... The death of a patient is sort of essential, isn't it? You don't just show up at work Monday morning to discover, "Hey, we have got a few more dead people around here!" The weekend personnel must have known. What I am trying to get through: We cannot trust the reporting of Corona deaths (or maybe even any other deaths) to be up to date, complete, or accurate. If, for a significant number patients, even the date of their death cannot be reported accurately, then we cannot expect much higher reliability regarding the death cause. If they probably would have survived the stroke/heart attack if they hadn't been weakened by their corona infection, should it be filed as a corona death or a stroke/hear attack death? In the current political climate, that is certainly a political decision as much as a medical one. The very pronounced weekly pattern is just an indicator that corona cases/death reports must be judged critially, they must be evaluated in the right context. They are not absolute values. And they are subject to policital considerations (or even political directives).
Statistically, there are more heart attacks Monday. The least are on Saturday. Go figure.
It was only in wine that he laid down no limit for himself, but he did not allow himself to be confused by it. ― Confucian Analects: Rules of Confucius about his food
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Statistically, there are more heart attacks Monday. The least are on Saturday. Go figure.
It was only in wine that he laid down no limit for himself, but he did not allow himself to be confused by it. ― Confucian Analects: Rules of Confucius about his food
So you think that the incrased heart attack numbers on Monday are reported as corona deaths? I guess that there would be studies showing why there are more heart attacks on Mondays. I am not willing to believe that this is "by nature"; it must be a cultural phenomenon. So what is it, in our culture, that causes more heart attacks on Mondays? I guess that deserves some investigation!
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The "Daily New cases" and "Daily Deaths" at Worldometers.info[^] shows a markedly weekly rythm: Appearently far fewer people catch the virus during the weekend, which I strongly doubt (but I certainly recognize that we are talking about detecting the infection, not cathcing it). But, for the deaths, following the same pattern: The virus knows nothing about weekdays. I strongly suspect that there really are as many Saturday and Sunday deaths as Monday and Tuesday deaths. I could, for myself, make a smoother curve, displaying the average death count the last three days. Yet... The death of a patient is sort of essential, isn't it? You don't just show up at work Monday morning to discover, "Hey, we have got a few more dead people around here!" The weekend personnel must have known. What I am trying to get through: We cannot trust the reporting of Corona deaths (or maybe even any other deaths) to be up to date, complete, or accurate. If, for a significant number patients, even the date of their death cannot be reported accurately, then we cannot expect much higher reliability regarding the death cause. If they probably would have survived the stroke/heart attack if they hadn't been weakened by their corona infection, should it be filed as a corona death or a stroke/hear attack death? In the current political climate, that is certainly a political decision as much as a medical one. The very pronounced weekly pattern is just an indicator that corona cases/death reports must be judged critially, they must be evaluated in the right context. They are not absolute values. And they are subject to policital considerations (or even political directives).
Member 7989122 wrote:
You don't just show up at work Monday morning to discover, "Hey, we have got a few more dead people around here!" The weekend personnel must have known.
Right now, it might have got better, but some years ago in spain, you would have got the deads of the weekend more or less on thrusday... Functionaries / Burocrats are /were (at least there are / were A LOT OF) laziest, most inconsiderate and reckless people you could find.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Member 7989122 wrote:
You don't just show up at work Monday morning to discover, "Hey, we have got a few more dead people around here!" The weekend personnel must have known.
Right now, it might have got better, but some years ago in spain, you would have got the deads of the weekend more or less on thrusday... Functionaries / Burocrats are /were (at least there are / were A LOT OF) laziest, most inconsiderate and reckless people you could find.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
Are you saying that they would report, on Thursday, that deaths occuring though the weekend would be reported as as occuring on the following Thursday (or maybe Wednesday night), even to the dependants? Could the officil date of death be off by 3-5 days from the actual day of death? Or are you just talking about the speed of reporting the death? If you are really are talking about the official time of death, that could have essential importance for how the wealth of the deceased one(s) are distributed among the inheritants. Inheritance laws differ enormously from country to country, and on whether the deceased has written a will or not. Around here, if my former wife and daughter both dies, it is very significant if my former wife dies before or after my daughter, as long as my daughter has written no will. If my daughter dies first, half of her assets go to my former wife. If my wife is dead when my daughter dies, all her assets will go to me. (Unless she has written a will - but a written will is still has as limited freedom).
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Are you saying that they would report, on Thursday, that deaths occuring though the weekend would be reported as as occuring on the following Thursday (or maybe Wednesday night), even to the dependants? Could the officil date of death be off by 3-5 days from the actual day of death? Or are you just talking about the speed of reporting the death? If you are really are talking about the official time of death, that could have essential importance for how the wealth of the deceased one(s) are distributed among the inheritants. Inheritance laws differ enormously from country to country, and on whether the deceased has written a will or not. Around here, if my former wife and daughter both dies, it is very significant if my former wife dies before or after my daughter, as long as my daughter has written no will. If my daughter dies first, half of her assets go to my former wife. If my wife is dead when my daughter dies, all her assets will go to me. (Unless she has written a will - but a written will is still has as limited freedom).
I was saying that they are so lazy and so bad organized that the deaths of the weekend (it might be even the previous weekend) get reported on thursday (meaning really delayed). In other words, just saying that "no fvck sherlock" to your "during the weekends there are lower statistics" because the burocrats are not there. The official reports are not depending on the hospitals. Hospitals only certified the death of a person, the rest is done by burocrats on monday (or tuesday, or following week or next month... depending on which country you are).
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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I was saying that they are so lazy and so bad organized that the deaths of the weekend (it might be even the previous weekend) get reported on thursday (meaning really delayed). In other words, just saying that "no fvck sherlock" to your "during the weekends there are lower statistics" because the burocrats are not there. The official reports are not depending on the hospitals. Hospitals only certified the death of a person, the rest is done by burocrats on monday (or tuesday, or following week or next month... depending on which country you are).
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Would they then report the deaths occuring on Saturday/Sunday as Thursday deaths, or would they report them as Saturday/Sunday deaths, but reported a few days later?
I don't know. But it wouldn't surprise me that they did it wrong.
M.D.V. ;) If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about? Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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The "Daily New cases" and "Daily Deaths" at Worldometers.info[^] shows a markedly weekly rythm: Appearently far fewer people catch the virus during the weekend, which I strongly doubt (but I certainly recognize that we are talking about detecting the infection, not cathcing it). But, for the deaths, following the same pattern: The virus knows nothing about weekdays. I strongly suspect that there really are as many Saturday and Sunday deaths as Monday and Tuesday deaths. I could, for myself, make a smoother curve, displaying the average death count the last three days. Yet... The death of a patient is sort of essential, isn't it? You don't just show up at work Monday morning to discover, "Hey, we have got a few more dead people around here!" The weekend personnel must have known. What I am trying to get through: We cannot trust the reporting of Corona deaths (or maybe even any other deaths) to be up to date, complete, or accurate. If, for a significant number patients, even the date of their death cannot be reported accurately, then we cannot expect much higher reliability regarding the death cause. If they probably would have survived the stroke/heart attack if they hadn't been weakened by their corona infection, should it be filed as a corona death or a stroke/hear attack death? In the current political climate, that is certainly a political decision as much as a medical one. The very pronounced weekly pattern is just an indicator that corona cases/death reports must be judged critially, they must be evaluated in the right context. They are not absolute values. And they are subject to policital considerations (or even political directives).
Member 7989122 wrote:
We cannot trust the reporting of Corona deaths (or maybe even any other deaths) to be up to date, complete, or accurate.
That's been true since day one. Nearly every day there is a new article about misreporting the deaths. Just last week was a report about gun shot victims being included in the numbers. People want to make this thing out to be worse than it is so everyone dying is getting lumped into the numbers. It's a sham.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Member 7989122 wrote:
We cannot trust the reporting of Corona deaths (or maybe even any other deaths) to be up to date, complete, or accurate.
That's been true since day one. Nearly every day there is a new article about misreporting the deaths. Just last week was a report about gun shot victims being included in the numbers. People want to make this thing out to be worse than it is so everyone dying is getting lumped into the numbers. It's a sham.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
And there are those who need to defend the claim that it will go away by Easter time. Or when the summer heat flows in. We don't know which side is the strongest one in influencing the numbers. But I'd say that it is more dangerous to force the estimates too low down, pretending that the spreading is a lot less than it is in reality, rather than the opposite, urging us to be more careful than strictly necessary. Maybe some countries will experience a second wave while others won't. I suspect that there will be more second waves in countries where the common attitude is that there is nothing to worry about, it is nothing but a sham.
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And there are those who need to defend the claim that it will go away by Easter time. Or when the summer heat flows in. We don't know which side is the strongest one in influencing the numbers. But I'd say that it is more dangerous to force the estimates too low down, pretending that the spreading is a lot less than it is in reality, rather than the opposite, urging us to be more careful than strictly necessary. Maybe some countries will experience a second wave while others won't. I suspect that there will be more second waves in countries where the common attitude is that there is nothing to worry about, it is nothing but a sham.
Member 7989122 wrote:
But I'd say that it is more dangerous to force the estimates too low down
But no one, as far as I can tell, has ever done that.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Member 7989122 wrote:
But I'd say that it is more dangerous to force the estimates too low down
But no one, as far as I can tell, has ever done that.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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I see a pattern with you. An illogical one, but still a pattern. ;)
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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I see a pattern with you. An illogical one, but still a pattern. ;)
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other. Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it. Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.