Bitcoin: view it as a game for small children
-
Very small children do (or used to) play a game called hot potato. The basic play of the game is to pass around and object, referred to as the potato. It is passed around furiously. Meanwhile, in the background, some sort of time span is being measured by (for example) music or a person who's neither playing nor watching. At any particular time, more or less at random but subject to human whim, they may stop. If you have the hot potato when the interval abruptly ends you are "out" and play continues without you. This goes on as the players keeping being culled for being stuck with the potato until the last two. When the music stops, the one who got rid of the potato last wins - and the one left holding it, the loser. Perhaps it's not played by current generations and thus they don't understand the concept? This, both as a prediction and the analogy to a game for small children, is what bitcoin is all about.* * see, also, "Tag", "Old Maid", and similar left holding the bag games
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Also "Musical chairs" - same idea, but you start with N - 1 chairs which N kids walk / run round, and take one away each time you stop the music. last kid seated is the winner. You can get some good fights going if you are careful when you stop the music ... :-D
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
-
Very small children do (or used to) play a game called hot potato. The basic play of the game is to pass around and object, referred to as the potato. It is passed around furiously. Meanwhile, in the background, some sort of time span is being measured by (for example) music or a person who's neither playing nor watching. At any particular time, more or less at random but subject to human whim, they may stop. If you have the hot potato when the interval abruptly ends you are "out" and play continues without you. This goes on as the players keeping being culled for being stuck with the potato until the last two. When the music stops, the one who got rid of the potato last wins - and the one left holding it, the loser. Perhaps it's not played by current generations and thus they don't understand the concept? This, both as a prediction and the analogy to a game for small children, is what bitcoin is all about.* * see, also, "Tag", "Old Maid", and similar left holding the bag games
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Do you remember our Soapbox discussion, ~18 months ago? One frequent visitor said "I predict an imminent bitcoin crash." A few months later Bitcoin fell from $US 20K to 10K. So he said "Hah! Toldya!". Then it went down to 6K. Now Bitcoin is at 55K. I am not saying that Bitcoin is the best thins since sliced bread. I am saying Bitcoin is such a strange animal that nobody knows what it'll do next.
"If we don't change direction, we'll end up where we're going"
-
Do you remember our Soapbox discussion, ~18 months ago? One frequent visitor said "I predict an imminent bitcoin crash." A few months later Bitcoin fell from $US 20K to 10K. So he said "Hah! Toldya!". Then it went down to 6K. Now Bitcoin is at 55K. I am not saying that Bitcoin is the best thins since sliced bread. I am saying Bitcoin is such a strange animal that nobody knows what it'll do next.
"If we don't change direction, we'll end up where we're going"
Even further back, a friend and I at work were writing an article about Bitcoin as it was fairly new and at the time, it was reaching nearly $1000 and we predicted a crash. It did crash of course, but in a year it was even higher. I still wouldn't touch it though.
Cheers, Vikram.
-
Do you remember our Soapbox discussion, ~18 months ago? One frequent visitor said "I predict an imminent bitcoin crash." A few months later Bitcoin fell from $US 20K to 10K. So he said "Hah! Toldya!". Then it went down to 6K. Now Bitcoin is at 55K. I am not saying that Bitcoin is the best thins since sliced bread. I am saying Bitcoin is such a strange animal that nobody knows what it'll do next.
"If we don't change direction, we'll end up where we're going"
Something with no intrinsic value (even gold can be made into jewelry) is doomed to oblivion. Simply put, it's hardly different than a a ponzi scheme - a house of cards. Everyone thinks themselves the market genius (until they discover how the game is rigged by and for the giant investors). They all know they'll by the bitcoins and sell before it crashes. How much it's insanely grown feeds those who think they'll get it right. Instead of it's absolute magnitude you should consider it commonly fluctuates 20% in a week or two. A track record that would make a junk-bond blush with shame.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
Also "Musical chairs" - same idea, but you start with N - 1 chairs which N kids walk / run round, and take one away each time you stop the music. last kid seated is the winner. You can get some good fights going if you are careful when you stop the music ... :-D
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
I didn't pick musical chair in that the players are eliminated by not having something. Aside from that it's the same picture. My only worry about this fool's gold of the second kind is that when it goes down that it doesn't take any businesses or banks with it and for those who lose there's no government aid. I mean, really, they entered a casino willingly.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
Do you remember our Soapbox discussion, ~18 months ago? One frequent visitor said "I predict an imminent bitcoin crash." A few months later Bitcoin fell from $US 20K to 10K. So he said "Hah! Toldya!". Then it went down to 6K. Now Bitcoin is at 55K. I am not saying that Bitcoin is the best thins since sliced bread. I am saying Bitcoin is such a strange animal that nobody knows what it'll do next.
"If we don't change direction, we'll end up where we're going"
The problem that behind every crypto-currency there is only the demand for it as value (which is actually means it has no value)... Obviously in the long run there will be no demand for thousands of them... A few (backed by banks or government) will stay - but then there will be some kind of trace on them already... There will be a few others for the black-market, and probably we should not get near to it...
"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012
-
Something with no intrinsic value (even gold can be made into jewelry) is doomed to oblivion. Simply put, it's hardly different than a a ponzi scheme - a house of cards. Everyone thinks themselves the market genius (until they discover how the game is rigged by and for the giant investors). They all know they'll by the bitcoins and sell before it crashes. How much it's insanely grown feeds those who think they'll get it right. Instead of it's absolute magnitude you should consider it commonly fluctuates 20% in a week or two. A track record that would make a junk-bond blush with shame.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
Very small children do (or used to) play a game called hot potato. The basic play of the game is to pass around and object, referred to as the potato. It is passed around furiously. Meanwhile, in the background, some sort of time span is being measured by (for example) music or a person who's neither playing nor watching. At any particular time, more or less at random but subject to human whim, they may stop. If you have the hot potato when the interval abruptly ends you are "out" and play continues without you. This goes on as the players keeping being culled for being stuck with the potato until the last two. When the music stops, the one who got rid of the potato last wins - and the one left holding it, the loser. Perhaps it's not played by current generations and thus they don't understand the concept? This, both as a prediction and the analogy to a game for small children, is what bitcoin is all about.* * see, also, "Tag", "Old Maid", and similar left holding the bag games
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Bitcoin has value because many people think it has value. Of course, fiat money, like dollars, rupees and kwacha, also has value because many people think it has value, with an important disctinction - the government makes you pay taxes in that currency.
Cheers, Vikram.
-
Very small children do (or used to) play a game called hot potato. The basic play of the game is to pass around and object, referred to as the potato. It is passed around furiously. Meanwhile, in the background, some sort of time span is being measured by (for example) music or a person who's neither playing nor watching. At any particular time, more or less at random but subject to human whim, they may stop. If you have the hot potato when the interval abruptly ends you are "out" and play continues without you. This goes on as the players keeping being culled for being stuck with the potato until the last two. When the music stops, the one who got rid of the potato last wins - and the one left holding it, the loser. Perhaps it's not played by current generations and thus they don't understand the concept? This, both as a prediction and the analogy to a game for small children, is what bitcoin is all about.* * see, also, "Tag", "Old Maid", and similar left holding the bag games
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
This is actually a very good description of hyperinflation. When it occurred it Weimar Germany, the central bankers lamented that they couldn't print money fast enough! That was true, though it was their prior printing that caused the crisis. When confidence in a currency is lost, velocity goes to the moon because everyone spends their currency immediately, for anything of value, because prices will be higher tomorrow...tonight...a couple of hours from now.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
Bitcoin has value because many people think it has value. Of course, fiat money, like dollars, rupees and kwacha, also has value because many people think it has value, with an important disctinction - the government makes you pay taxes in that currency.
Cheers, Vikram.
Most of the currencies are backed by the value of the products a country creates - real things. Some countries even have gold reserves to be on the safe side...
"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012
-
Bitcoin has value because many people think it has value. Of course, fiat money, like dollars, rupees and kwacha, also has value because many people think it has value, with an important disctinction - the government makes you pay taxes in that currency.
Cheers, Vikram.
This. The post is basically solipsistic because all value is subjective. Nothing has intrinsic value. Everyone has their own subjective valuation for whatever is bought and sold. The interplay of all these valuations, of buyers and sellers, is what can be described by supply and demand curves, which find a market-clearing price. You could call this price an "intrinsic value", but there is nothing "intrinsic" about it because it is constantly changing. Many serious, professional investors are now into Bitcoin. Are they infallible? Hardly. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
Do you remember our Soapbox discussion, ~18 months ago? One frequent visitor said "I predict an imminent bitcoin crash." A few months later Bitcoin fell from $US 20K to 10K. So he said "Hah! Toldya!". Then it went down to 6K. Now Bitcoin is at 55K. I am not saying that Bitcoin is the best thins since sliced bread. I am saying Bitcoin is such a strange animal that nobody knows what it'll do next.
"If we don't change direction, we'll end up where we're going"
megaadam wrote:
nobody knows what it'll do next.
Call me skeptical, but I imagine some folks indeed know what it's going to do, and capitalize (to the detriment of others) on that knowledge/(control?).
"the debugger doesn't tell me anything because this code compiles just fine" - random QA comment "Facebook is where you tell lies to your friends. Twitter is where you tell the truth to strangers." - chriselst "I don't drink any more... then again, I don't drink any less." - Mike Mullikins uncle
-
This is actually a very good description of hyperinflation. When it occurred it Weimar Germany, the central bankers lamented that they couldn't print money fast enough! That was true, though it was their prior printing that caused the crisis. When confidence in a currency is lost, velocity goes to the moon because everyone spends their currency immediately, for anything of value, because prices will be higher tomorrow...tonight...a couple of hours from now.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.I was first vaguely aware of this as a child - my stamp collection had an unused stamp. It was overprinted (not worth new paper, I suppose) as 100 Million Reichsmarks. Excitement waned as I discovered how much it was not worth.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
This. The post is basically solipsistic because all value is subjective. Nothing has intrinsic value. Everyone has their own subjective valuation for whatever is bought and sold. The interplay of all these valuations, of buyers and sellers, is what can be described by supply and demand curves, which find a market-clearing price. You could call this price an "intrinsic value", but there is nothing "intrinsic" about it because it is constantly changing. Many serious, professional investors are now into Bitcoin. Are they infallible? Hardly. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Greg Utas wrote:
Many serious, professional investors are now into Bitcoin. Are they infallible? Hardly. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
They're keeping their hands on the trigger to be the first to get out. You can be sure of that.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
-
I was first vaguely aware of this as a child - my stamp collection had an unused stamp. It was overprinted (not worth new paper, I suppose) as 100 Million Reichsmarks. Excitement waned as I discovered how much it was not worth.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
Greg Utas wrote:
Many serious, professional investors are now into Bitcoin. Are they infallible? Hardly. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
They're keeping their hands on the trigger to be the first to get out. You can be sure of that.
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
No one rings a bell at the top. Anyone playing that game is either a fool or playing with other people's money. Which certainly does describe some of these folks...
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
No one rings a bell at the top. Anyone playing that game is either a fool or playing with other people's money. Which certainly does describe some of these folks...
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Greg Utas wrote:
Anyone playing that game is either a fool or playing with other people's money.
You're confusing value and money here. If you don't want to loose value, put it in something that keeps it. (Like in; not the US dollar)
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
-
Greg Utas wrote:
Anyone playing that game is either a fool or playing with other people's money.
You're confusing value and money here. If you don't want to loose value, put it in something that keeps it. (Like in; not the US dollar)
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
"Money is gold, and nothing else." "Gold is money. Everything else is credit." --J.P.Morgan
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
"Money is gold, and nothing else." "Gold is money. Everything else is credit." --J.P.Morgan
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Greg Utas wrote:
"Money is gold, and nothing else." "Gold is money. Everything else is credit."
I completely agree; but that is the short version. First, gold is easy recognizable and has value during wars, even if you have to trade your wedding ring for some eggs. Never read about BC during wars, it's too young for that. Wood is money. Because it has uses, and there's demand. As wood, gold is a resource, creating demand and giving it value. Also, most stable commodities hardly change in value, it is more often the price of the commodity changing in the local fiat-value. Gold is for kings. Platinum for Emperors, Silver for the nobles. I held gold and silver, and must say that it pays more than a savings-account, just due inflation. And gold is the safer one. Gold is the ultimate money; it has high demand, is easily divided, works good to store value (meaning, no inflation due to people "producing" gold). Silver is a good second, but is a lot more unpredictable in value, very volatile compared to gold. BC is acting like a competitor to my silver holdings, so not happy with that. Personal preferences don't dictate economics. People are moving to BC, even at these rates that look rediculous to me; but I have truly no idea about what the future holds and where we be in hundred years.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
-
Greg Utas wrote:
"Money is gold, and nothing else." "Gold is money. Everything else is credit."
I completely agree; but that is the short version. First, gold is easy recognizable and has value during wars, even if you have to trade your wedding ring for some eggs. Never read about BC during wars, it's too young for that. Wood is money. Because it has uses, and there's demand. As wood, gold is a resource, creating demand and giving it value. Also, most stable commodities hardly change in value, it is more often the price of the commodity changing in the local fiat-value. Gold is for kings. Platinum for Emperors, Silver for the nobles. I held gold and silver, and must say that it pays more than a savings-account, just due inflation. And gold is the safer one. Gold is the ultimate money; it has high demand, is easily divided, works good to store value (meaning, no inflation due to people "producing" gold). Silver is a good second, but is a lot more unpredictable in value, very volatile compared to gold. BC is acting like a competitor to my silver holdings, so not happy with that. Personal preferences don't dictate economics. People are moving to BC, even at these rates that look rediculous to me; but I have truly no idea about what the future holds and where we be in hundred years.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
Silver is more volatile than gold because its monetary role has diminished. More of the demand for it is now industrial, so its value depends more on economic conditions. Mexico and China were on a silver standard (rather than a gold standard) for a while, but even silver coins went out of circulation in the US after 1964, and in Canada after 1967. Nickels aren't even made of nickel any longer, nor pennies of copper. Even most fiat is no longer backed by paper and is just electronic entries in a bank account.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.
