Bitcoin: view it as a game for small children
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Gold coins went out of circulation in the US in 1933, when FDR confiscated them all. Americans were not allowed to own gold again until 1975 (except for jewelry and collectible coins). I think you're referring to 1971, when Nixon no longer allowed other countries to exchange the US dollars (that they received in trade) for gold. This broke the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944. "Inflation target of 2%" = "That's how much, in excess of economic growth, we need to conjure and give to special interests."
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Greg Utas wrote:
Gold coins went out of circulation in the US in 1933, when FDR confiscated them all
Officially they did. Don't be naive and assume that all gold coins were confiscated.
Greg Utas wrote:
Americans were not allowed to own gold again until 1975 (except for jewelry and collectible coins)
And thus, lots more coins became colletible :D
Greg Utas wrote:
I think you're referring to 1971
You shouldn't think. Verifying is better than thinking.
Greg Utas wrote:
This broke the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944.
Tis, but there's much more history to it than that, like Browns' Bottom.
Greg Utas wrote:
That's how much, in excess of economic growth, we need to conjure and give to special interests
With an ageing population, that's just a fraction of how much refugees we require. Our economic growth is based on lending, and that growing pool is only vaiable if the amount of participants grow. Our economy is based on the amount of consumers growing, and we an aging population. So we create wars and generate regugees, and conjure up more consumers to keep the boat going. We not taking those refugees because we think they deserve it, but because we need to grow the population, which our greying society just doesn't. No new consumers without refugees. And anyone who knows basic math can explain how that line will break. May take more than a hundred years, but eventually, it will break. Even if we go "rabbit" and grow our own; there's a natural limit to supply, and as such, the current trend of growth will stop. We dunno when, but math says it will. And me? I'll be having fun, because silver doesn't have an inflation target. Like BC, the amount of silver is limited. Look up historical gains, if you really interested. Gold did over 300% over the last years, compare that to your fiat savings account.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Greg Utas wrote:
Gold coins went out of circulation in the US in 1933, when FDR confiscated them all
Officially they did. Don't be naive and assume that all gold coins were confiscated.
Greg Utas wrote:
Americans were not allowed to own gold again until 1975 (except for jewelry and collectible coins)
And thus, lots more coins became colletible :D
Greg Utas wrote:
I think you're referring to 1971
You shouldn't think. Verifying is better than thinking.
Greg Utas wrote:
This broke the Bretton Woods agreement of 1944.
Tis, but there's much more history to it than that, like Browns' Bottom.
Greg Utas wrote:
That's how much, in excess of economic growth, we need to conjure and give to special interests
With an ageing population, that's just a fraction of how much refugees we require. Our economic growth is based on lending, and that growing pool is only vaiable if the amount of participants grow. Our economy is based on the amount of consumers growing, and we an aging population. So we create wars and generate regugees, and conjure up more consumers to keep the boat going. We not taking those refugees because we think they deserve it, but because we need to grow the population, which our greying society just doesn't. No new consumers without refugees. And anyone who knows basic math can explain how that line will break. May take more than a hundred years, but eventually, it will break. Even if we go "rabbit" and grow our own; there's a natural limit to supply, and as such, the current trend of growth will stop. We dunno when, but math says it will. And me? I'll be having fun, because silver doesn't have an inflation target. Like BC, the amount of silver is limited. Look up historical gains, if you really interested. Gold did over 300% over the last years, compare that to your fiat savings account.
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
Good old Gordon Brown, who sold a pile of Her Majesty's gold on a bottom tick. Your refugee take is interesting, but economic growth would be far less important without all the unfunded pension liabilities. I think that's more of a driving force. But so far it isn't working, because many refugees have low-paying jobs, or none. Doomsayers keep channeling Malthus, but nothing so far. Maybe one day. Or maybe humankind will eventually be expanding at the speed of light. :laugh: Gold since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 (USD 42/oz) is a good starting point, for a CAGR of 7.8% since the printing presses really got cranked up. And in 1967, when Canada last minted silver coins, 10 cents bought a liter of gasoline. It still does, despite far greedier tax collectors.
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
Good old Gordon Brown, who sold a pile of Her Majesty's gold on a bottom tick. Your refugee take is interesting, but economic growth would be far less important without all the unfunded pension liabilities. I think that's more of a driving force. But so far it isn't working, because many refugees have low-paying jobs, or none. Doomsayers keep channeling Malthus, but nothing so far. Maybe one day. Or maybe humankind will eventually be expanding at the speed of light. :laugh: Gold since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 (USD 42/oz) is a good starting point, for a CAGR of 7.8% since the printing presses really got cranked up. And in 1967, when Canada last minted silver coins, 10 cents bought a liter of gasoline. It still does, despite far greedier tax collectors.
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Greg Utas wrote:
Good old Gordon Brown, who sold a pile of Her Majesty's gold on a bottom tick.
And gave more trust in our fiat, causing our economy to bloom. It's not that black and white, there's just pro's and con's.
Greg Utas wrote:
economic growth would be far less important without all the unfunded pension liabilities. I think that's more of a driving force. But so far it isn't working, because many refugees have low-paying jobs, or none.
It is the only important factor, and it don't matter if they contribute. What matters is debt, and consumption. The hallmarks of the US economy. "And nothing else matters, ejeeejej!"
Greg Utas wrote:
Gold since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 (USD 42/oz) is a good starting point
For what? As a silverbug, we cannot go back. There's not enough to go around, simple as that. If economy fails, the price of gold and silver will fall also!
Greg Utas wrote:
It still does, despite far greedier tax collectors.
American? You been promised "no more taxes" during every presidential campaign in the last 30 or so years. Taxes is what makes Europe better than the US. In every way. Feel free to move, there's some nations in Africa where you hardly pay anything :D :thumbsup:
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Also "Musical chairs" - same idea, but you start with N - 1 chairs which N kids walk / run round, and take one away each time you stop the music. last kid seated is the winner. You can get some good fights going if you are careful when you stop the music ... :-D
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony "Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
And it's the likes of Musk playing the tune; deciding when to stop and start; and the "kids" thinking he's got their best interest at heart. But he's actually also in the game, and wants the last chair; and doesn't care if you land on your tail bone.
It was only in wine that he laid down no limit for himself, but he did not allow himself to be confused by it. ― Confucian Analects: Rules of Confucius about his food
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This. The post is basically solipsistic because all value is subjective. Nothing has intrinsic value. Everyone has their own subjective valuation for whatever is bought and sold. The interplay of all these valuations, of buyers and sellers, is what can be described by supply and demand curves, which find a market-clearing price. You could call this price an "intrinsic value", but there is nothing "intrinsic" about it because it is constantly changing. Many serious, professional investors are now into Bitcoin. Are they infallible? Hardly. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.The "pros" are just playing the part of Barnum and Bailey; riding the wave of suckers that don't have the means to survive the volatility. No smarts required; just cash (the old stuff). The "pros" are swimming in cash (and real-time data); that's why they're in the game. It's the "fool and his money" angle they're playing. Blinded by the light.
It was only in wine that he laid down no limit for himself, but he did not allow himself to be confused by it. ― Confucian Analects: Rules of Confucius about his food
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"Money is gold, and nothing else." "Gold is money. Everything else is credit." --J.P.Morgan
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Isn't that 'historic' view what got us into this mess? It's like the (upcoming) economics of a habitable climate..
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Isn't that 'historic' view what got us into this mess? It's like the (upcoming) economics of a habitable climate..
Not sure what you're getting at. I could quibble with the quotes, but both are essentially correct. Economics tries to explain things like how scarce resources are allocated and how prices are determined, so the economics of a habitable climate would be no different than any other.
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
The "pros" are just playing the part of Barnum and Bailey; riding the wave of suckers that don't have the means to survive the volatility. No smarts required; just cash (the old stuff). The "pros" are swimming in cash (and real-time data); that's why they're in the game. It's the "fool and his money" angle they're playing. Blinded by the light.
It was only in wine that he laid down no limit for himself, but he did not allow himself to be confused by it. ― Confucian Analects: Rules of Confucius about his food
Pretty much right on the mark. Another perspective to add to your list - think of it for what it is: gambling. If you get involved in gambling with someone and the odds of either of you winning is 50%, the one of you with the most money has the better chance of winning. That's because there are streaks of wins and losses. Eventually one streak will be long enough to wipe out one of the players and that's more like as the difference in assets increases. In a way, it's a complimentary description to your "surviving the volatility". Another offshoot of your reply, two components that are relatable (Barnum and "fool and his money") - which a famous quote usually attributed to P.T. Barnum: "There's a sucker born every minute".
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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Greg Utas wrote:
Good old Gordon Brown, who sold a pile of Her Majesty's gold on a bottom tick.
And gave more trust in our fiat, causing our economy to bloom. It's not that black and white, there's just pro's and con's.
Greg Utas wrote:
economic growth would be far less important without all the unfunded pension liabilities. I think that's more of a driving force. But so far it isn't working, because many refugees have low-paying jobs, or none.
It is the only important factor, and it don't matter if they contribute. What matters is debt, and consumption. The hallmarks of the US economy. "And nothing else matters, ejeeejej!"
Greg Utas wrote:
Gold since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 (USD 42/oz) is a good starting point
For what? As a silverbug, we cannot go back. There's not enough to go around, simple as that. If economy fails, the price of gold and silver will fall also!
Greg Utas wrote:
It still does, despite far greedier tax collectors.
American? You been promised "no more taxes" during every presidential campaign in the last 30 or so years. Taxes is what makes Europe better than the US. In every way. Feel free to move, there's some nations in Africa where you hardly pay anything :D :thumbsup:
Bastard Programmer from Hell :suss: "If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Taxes is what makes Europe better than the US. In every way.
I finally figured out the very weird perspective and twists you have on things! **Your real name is "Candide".
**"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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Very small children do (or used to) play a game called hot potato. The basic play of the game is to pass around and object, referred to as the potato. It is passed around furiously. Meanwhile, in the background, some sort of time span is being measured by (for example) music or a person who's neither playing nor watching. At any particular time, more or less at random but subject to human whim, they may stop. If you have the hot potato when the interval abruptly ends you are "out" and play continues without you. This goes on as the players keeping being culled for being stuck with the potato until the last two. When the music stops, the one who got rid of the potato last wins - and the one left holding it, the loser. Perhaps it's not played by current generations and thus they don't understand the concept? This, both as a prediction and the analogy to a game for small children, is what bitcoin is all about.* * see, also, "Tag", "Old Maid", and similar left holding the bag games
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
Quatloos are the next big thing! Anyone know where can I buy them?
obligatory ref The Gamesters of Triskelion - Wikipedia[^] ?but was the ref necessary?
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Not sure what you're getting at. I could quibble with the quotes, but both are essentially correct. Economics tries to explain things like how scarce resources are allocated and how prices are determined, so the economics of a habitable climate would be no different than any other.
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.Hi Greg, I wasn't sure if you were thinking of money as a commodity item, which was then suitable for use as an exchangeable token for value (like those longing for a return to 'gold standard' and everything else as 'fake' money). The shift to digital accounting has made the majority of physical commodity money obsolete, but the problem of maintaining 'trust' in the money (as value) is still there (as per the bitcoin game). The core element is that the money (digital or otherwise) is (has smallest unit elements) that are smaller than the value of the items traded (pennies and cents). So we can slice and dice our trading in the capitalist economy. However Climate isn't traded that way, and is more 'socialist/communist' (community) than capitalistic, so can't actually be valued as a trade, so the 'money' (fiat or commodity) approach starts to fade. The scarce resource of habitable climate can't be allocated using the old mechanisms, hence my thought about 'upcoming economics'. Which is all a bit of a way from the current children's bitcoin game..
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Hi Greg, I wasn't sure if you were thinking of money as a commodity item, which was then suitable for use as an exchangeable token for value (like those longing for a return to 'gold standard' and everything else as 'fake' money). The shift to digital accounting has made the majority of physical commodity money obsolete, but the problem of maintaining 'trust' in the money (as value) is still there (as per the bitcoin game). The core element is that the money (digital or otherwise) is (has smallest unit elements) that are smaller than the value of the items traded (pennies and cents). So we can slice and dice our trading in the capitalist economy. However Climate isn't traded that way, and is more 'socialist/communist' (community) than capitalistic, so can't actually be valued as a trade, so the 'money' (fiat or commodity) approach starts to fade. The scarce resource of habitable climate can't be allocated using the old mechanisms, hence my thought about 'upcoming economics'. Which is all a bit of a way from the current children's bitcoin game..
Digital accounting has made it unnecessary to routinely exchange commodity money, but that doesn't mean that currency units shouldn't be backed by a commodity. Without this, history shows that the privilege to conjure currency units will be abused. It's a tax, but one that is easier to collect because most people don't even realize that they're being diluted if it's done at a modest rate of, say, 2% in excess of economic growth per year. Climate can be traded, which is what carbon credits and taxes are about. Whether these are good solutions is debatable. But pollution can (or should) be prosecuted as a tort, in which case the cost of polluting can be factored into economic decisions.
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The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. -
Digital accounting has made it unnecessary to routinely exchange commodity money, but that doesn't mean that currency units shouldn't be backed by a commodity. Without this, history shows that the privilege to conjure currency units will be abused. It's a tax, but one that is easier to collect because most people don't even realize that they're being diluted if it's done at a modest rate of, say, 2% in excess of economic growth per year. Climate can be traded, which is what carbon credits and taxes are about. Whether these are good solutions is debatable. But pollution can (or should) be prosecuted as a tort, in which case the cost of polluting can be factored into economic decisions.
Robust Services Core | Software Techniques for Lemmings | Articles
The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.There is no need of a single commodity to base a currency on (i.e. none is a sufficient base). The market dynamics aggregate across all the commodities being traded to decide the exchange rate between currencies. The costs of goods fluctuate all the time for many reasons. We enjoy the illusion of certain stabilities - e.g. "The pound in your pocket" unaffected by the devaluation of sterling (Wilson, 1967). For some currencies there is also government interaction for 'common' federal money (e.g. European union, and other Unions). Conceptual elements of climate can be traded, but habitability isn't decided by the parties to the trade, hence the problem.
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Eddy Vluggen wrote:
Taxes is what makes Europe better than the US. In every way.
I finally figured out the very weird perspective and twists you have on things! **Your real name is "Candide".
**"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010
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Quatloos are the next big thing! Anyone know where can I buy them?
obligatory ref The Gamesters of Triskelion - Wikipedia[^] ?but was the ref necessary?
I wouldn't give one ningy for your quatloos.
