AI Economic Modelling
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Logan's Run, or Soylent Green, if certain trends continue. :sigh:
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.
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What I see in (economic) AI is the bringing together of various techniques that have been in use since WWII (operations research). It's just more accessible without having to understand it. The banks have been able to squeeze every service cent without "AI" up to this point. But credit card "flagging" has increased (I hear).
"Before entering on an understanding, I have meditated for a long time, and have foreseen what might happen. It is not genius which reveals to me suddenly, secretly, what I have to say or to do in a circumstance unexpected by other people; it is reflection, it is meditation." - Napoleon I
Gerry Schmitz wrote:
(operations research). It's just more accessible without having to understand it.
Amen. The three most dangerous things in industry are: 1. A software engineer with an item of hardware 2. A hardware engineer with a program 3. A manager with a model :)
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.
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i just now learned of ai economic forecasting/modelling . this could/may/should lead to replacing the Central Bank w/ ai . incredible . further even the tax code could/may/should be composed by ai . all to maximize the +'s and minimize the -'s . incredible . a brave new world . we will soon be living in a sci-fi movie .
I got news for y'all... bots have been used in the markets for years now. Just about every market is manipulated too. So, whether it's to benefit a few people or machines, either way you're screwed. And yes, I know you beat the odds. Don't mean they're not already botted, etc. though.
Jeremy Falcon
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i just now learned of ai economic forecasting/modelling . this could/may/should lead to replacing the Central Bank w/ ai . incredible . further even the tax code could/may/should be composed by ai . all to maximize the +'s and minimize the -'s . incredible . a brave new world . we will soon be living in a sci-fi movie .
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i ignorantly assume ai will find patterns in the economy no-one else can and adjust the levers available to the Central Bank as it deems necessary in real time . like wize re/ the tax code .
That would be an "answer to a question" ... AI (currently) doesn't pose "questions" (to itself), so it doesn't come up with anything new, by itself.
"Before entering on an understanding, I have meditated for a long time, and have foreseen what might happen. It is not genius which reveals to me suddenly, secretly, what I have to say or to do in a circumstance unexpected by other people; it is reflection, it is meditation." - Napoleon I
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I think that you are much too optimistic. It is not sufficient to collect a large mass of data and throw an "AI" at it. A model with a set of degrees of freedom (parameters) must be developed, and then the AI may be "trained" to adjust the parameters so as best to fit the data. This assumes that the parameters are not time-dependent, which is an even more difficult problem. On the micro level, any national economy has a large number of degrees of freedom (underestimated as 1 degree per person). No model, AI or otherwise, comes even close to handling such a large number of variables. Furthermore, the "boundary conditions", i.e. interactions outside the national economy, are at least as complex. It may be possible that the smallest unit that may be modelled is the planetary economy. On the macro level, economists have yet to identify the variables that are important to the economy, the proof being their inability to forecast anything but the most general trends. EDIT: grammar
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.
It also assumes people "never change" ... I "change" based on issues and have never stated "I always vote that way".
"Before entering on an understanding, I have meditated for a long time, and have foreseen what might happen. It is not genius which reveals to me suddenly, secretly, what I have to say or to do in a circumstance unexpected by other people; it is reflection, it is meditation." - Napoleon I
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That would be an "answer to a question" ... AI (currently) doesn't pose "questions" (to itself), so it doesn't come up with anything new, by itself.
"Before entering on an understanding, I have meditated for a long time, and have foreseen what might happen. It is not genius which reveals to me suddenly, secretly, what I have to say or to do in a circumstance unexpected by other people; it is reflection, it is meditation." - Napoleon I
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It also assumes people "never change" ... I "change" based on issues and have never stated "I always vote that way".
"Before entering on an understanding, I have meditated for a long time, and have foreseen what might happen. It is not genius which reveals to me suddenly, secretly, what I have to say or to do in a circumstance unexpected by other people; it is reflection, it is meditation." - Napoleon I
Gerry Schmitz wrote:
It also assumes people "never change"
I wrote: "This assumes that the parameters are not time-dependent, which is an even more difficult problem."
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows. -- 6079 Smith W.
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Yes, fantastic, in how much time compared to those algorithms? In many cases speed and a moderate size reduction is a lot better than smaller but slower (and maybe by a lot, the paper doesn't say and I highly doubt AI is nearly as fast)
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yes . ai can be trained on vast data and so possibly foresee the unforeseen consequences .
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i just now learned of ai economic forecasting/modelling . this could/may/should lead to replacing the Central Bank w/ ai . incredible . further even the tax code could/may/should be composed by ai . all to maximize the +'s and minimize the -'s . incredible . a brave new world . we will soon be living in a sci-fi movie .
It will probably be like Metal Gear. War is the quickest way to make a profit. And the machine will quickly learn that. Without the military industry complex there would be no Federal Reserve. Without the Federal Reserve there wouldn't be a military industry complex. Two evil organizations that need each other.