help with homework
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Hi Could you guys check if my homework is correct: Q A box (A) contains 8 apples and 4 oranges Another box (B) containes 10 apples and 2 oranges A fruit is picked from a random box, and found to be an apple. what is the chance of this apple comming from box A. Use Bayes theorem. scroll down for my answer A: 8/12 * 1/2 ---------------------- 8/12 * 1/2 + 10/12 * 1/2 = 0.444
You're right. I didn't go through and calculate .444 but the equation above it is correct. Out of curiosity how might you calculate this without using Bayes theorem? Saying "use Bayes theorem" is kinda redundant... or at least it is to me as I can't think of another way to approach it.
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You're right. I didn't go through and calculate .444 but the equation above it is correct. Out of curiosity how might you calculate this without using Bayes theorem? Saying "use Bayes theorem" is kinda redundant... or at least it is to me as I can't think of another way to approach it.
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Not to mention the possibility that you pick up an apple masquerading as an orange. Those fruit can be wile, you know. BW CP Member Homepages
"Miraculous you call it babe? You ain't seen nothing yet.
They got Pepsi in the Andes. They got McDonalds in Tibet"Or you may have a rotten apple.:-D Neville Franks, Author of ED for Windows www.getsoft.com and coming soon: Surfulater www.surfulater.com
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You're right. I didn't go through and calculate .444 but the equation above it is correct. Out of curiosity how might you calculate this without using Bayes theorem? Saying "use Bayes theorem" is kinda redundant... or at least it is to me as I can't think of another way to approach it.
Daniel Wilson wrote: or at least it is to me as I can't think of another way to approach it. There's always the Monte Carlo approach... :-D Perl combines all the worst aspects of C and Lisp: a billion different sublanguages in one monolithic executable. It combines the power of C with the readability of PostScript. -- Jamie Zawinski
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You're right. I didn't go through and calculate .444 but the equation above it is correct. Out of curiosity how might you calculate this without using Bayes theorem? Saying "use Bayes theorem" is kinda redundant... or at least it is to me as I can't think of another way to approach it.
There is always brute force. Calculate all posibilities and just count apples and oranges. (or boxes in this case.) My goal is to look at code like a chessmaster looks at a chessboard to see positions and possibilites beyond lines and characters.
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Hi Could you guys check if my homework is correct: Q A box (A) contains 8 apples and 4 oranges Another box (B) containes 10 apples and 2 oranges A fruit is picked from a random box, and found to be an apple. what is the chance of this apple comming from box A. Use Bayes theorem. scroll down for my answer A: 8/12 * 1/2 ---------------------- 8/12 * 1/2 + 10/12 * 1/2 = 0.444
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42 BW CP Member Homepages
"Miraculous you call it babe? You ain't seen nothing yet.
They got Pepsi in the Andes. They got McDonalds in Tibet"I just saw this thread now and I was about to answer with that. :-) Regards, Brian Dela :-) http://www.briandela.com IE 6 required.
http://www.briandela.com/pictures Now with a pictures section :-D
http://www.briandela.com/rss/newsrss.xml RSS Feed -
There is always brute force. Calculate all posibilities and just count apples and oranges. (or boxes in this case.) My goal is to look at code like a chessmaster looks at a chessboard to see positions and possibilites beyond lines and characters.
andy brummer wrote: My goal is to look at code like a chessmaster looks at a chessboard to see positions and possibilites beyond lines and characters. ...and wait for the computer (and illiterate users...) beat you at the game :) My article on a reference-counted smart pointer that supports polymorphic objects and raw pointers
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Hi Could you guys check if my homework is correct: Q A box (A) contains 8 apples and 4 oranges Another box (B) containes 10 apples and 2 oranges A fruit is picked from a random box, and found to be an apple. what is the chance of this apple comming from box A. Use Bayes theorem. scroll down for my answer A: 8/12 * 1/2 ---------------------- 8/12 * 1/2 + 10/12 * 1/2 = 0.444
You cant compare oranges to apples! top secret
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There is always brute force. Calculate all posibilities and just count apples and oranges. (or boxes in this case.) My goal is to look at code like a chessmaster looks at a chessboard to see positions and possibilites beyond lines and characters.
andy brummer wrote: There is always brute force. Calculate all posibilities and just count apples and oranges. (or boxes in this case.) You can make it sound more impressive calling it "the Monte Carlo statistical modelling" (I'm serious) :) Perl combines all the worst aspects of C and Lisp: a billion different sublanguages in one monolithic executable. It combines the power of C with the readability of PostScript. -- Jamie Zawinski
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There is always brute force. Calculate all posibilities and just count apples and oranges. (or boxes in this case.) My goal is to look at code like a chessmaster looks at a chessboard to see positions and possibilites beyond lines and characters.
In this case they are one in the same since there isn't a bias towards one basket. 8/12 * 1/2 24 ---------------------- * ----- 8/12 * 1/2 + 10/12 * 1/2 24 = 8 --- 18 = .444
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Daniel Wilson wrote: Saying "use Bayes theorem" is kinda redundant just a helpful hint, I suppose. tx:)
I guess technically we are both wrong since .444 isn't the "right" answer but instead .4444444 with 4 repeating ad infinitum but I can figure out how to put a line above the 4. ;P
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andy brummer wrote: There is always brute force. Calculate all posibilities and just count apples and oranges. (or boxes in this case.) You can make it sound more impressive calling it "the Monte Carlo statistical modelling" (I'm serious) :) Perl combines all the worst aspects of C and Lisp: a billion different sublanguages in one monolithic executable. It combines the power of C with the readability of PostScript. -- Jamie Zawinski
Again I am amazed by the power of marketing. :-D
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I just saw this thread now and I was about to answer with that. :-) Regards, Brian Dela :-) http://www.briandela.com IE 6 required.
http://www.briandela.com/pictures Now with a pictures section :-D
http://www.briandela.com/rss/newsrss.xml RSS FeedGreat names think alike. BW CP Member Homepages
"Miraculous you call it babe? You ain't seen nothing yet.
They got Pepsi in the Andes. They got McDonalds in Tibet" -
andy brummer wrote: There is always brute force. Calculate all posibilities and just count apples and oranges. (or boxes in this case.) You can make it sound more impressive calling it "the Monte Carlo statistical modelling" (I'm serious) :) Perl combines all the worst aspects of C and Lisp: a billion different sublanguages in one monolithic executable. It combines the power of C with the readability of PostScript. -- Jamie Zawinski
That's the lazy version. Monte Carlo only calculates some of the results and then assumes all the rest are the same. It's great using statistics to calculate statistical results. There's a 20% chance that there is a 30% chance that it was the second box. My goal is to look at code like a chessmaster looks at a chessboard to see positions and possibilites beyond lines and characters.
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Hi Could you guys check if my homework is correct: Q A box (A) contains 8 apples and 4 oranges Another box (B) containes 10 apples and 2 oranges A fruit is picked from a random box, and found to be an apple. what is the chance of this apple comming from box A. Use Bayes theorem. scroll down for my answer A: 8/12 * 1/2 ---------------------- 8/12 * 1/2 + 10/12 * 1/2 = 0.444
0.5 It is either from box A or not.;P