Who's Winning Survivor Tonight?
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We had a show over here called "The Mole" last year that was totally addictive - but a little more laid back than the US/UK versions. Same format - challenges each week and all that, but one of the contestants was a Mole who was actively working against the group's success. At the end of each episode they took a test on what the Mole did that day. The lowest score was kicked out (since the Mole would always get 100% they would stay in each week). A little fairer than Survivor. What is it about watching group struggles and dynamics that reaches deep and drags us in front of the box each week? cheers, Chris Maunde
The US gets it's version of "The Mole" in the fall
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The US gets it's version of "The Mole" in the fall
I can't say that I've watched Big Brother, so I can't comment on that. But Survivor is actually a pretty interesting game. Like success in the office, you need both good strategy and good luck to win. Of course Game Theory discounts luck... I was kind of wondering if they filmed multiple endings, in case the winner's name had somehow been leaked out. The objective isn't just making the final two... that's a dead end strategy if you're there with someone who is better liked than you are. That's why Colleen had to go; no one would want to have to go against her in a 2 person vote. The ideal would be to be pitted against Richard, who is never going to win that final vote. So if it were me, Richard would be my best friend, and the guy I would team up with in the next couple of rounds. Anyway, don't get me going... still an interesting game Theory problem if you ask me. Lori
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I can't believe that after ignoring this show for the first ten weeks, that I finally got sucked into it at the end. Anyone else willing to admit to watching? I studied at little bit of Game Theory at University, and I was fascinated by the application of Game Theory to this kind of environment, but then I just fell for the machavellian politics like everyone else. So who is going to win? My prediction, not that anyone cares... 1. If Kelly wins the Immunity Challenge... Sue beats Richard in the final vote, aftering tossing Rudy in the next to last Council. 2. If Kelly doesn't win the Immunity Challenge... then Rudy beats Richard after in the final vote, after they toss Sue in run up. I know... I've got too much free time on my hands. Lor
OK - last night we had the episode where Sean was kicked out. How about someone just posts the results here ASAP so I can get my wednesday nights back... :) cheers, Chris Maunde
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Sigh... we don't have "Survivor" here in the UK, but we do have "Big Brother". Even though this sort of show goes against everything I believe in, there is something compelling about watching these bastards stab each other in the back! hehe
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OK - last night we had the episode where Sean was kicked out. How about someone just posts the results here ASAP so I can get my wednesday nights back... :) cheers, Chris Maunde
Chris Unbelievable... Rich won. Kelly wins the next immunity challenge--a quiz about the personal characteristics of the tribe members. As soon as Kelly wins, good bye Sue. Then its down to Rudy, Kelly, and Rich. The immunity challenge is to stand on a stop and keep touching a poll. Its fascinating because Richard is smart enough to know that he absolutely better not win the immunity challenge, because if he does he'll have to kick Kelly off and then lose to Rudy in the final vote. If he wins the challenge, and kicks Rudy off, betraying the alliance, he loses Rudy's vote in the final. He needs to have Kelly win the immunity challenge, because she will boot Rudy, figuring there is no way she can beat him in the final. So Richard quits the immunity challenge... Rudy quits after 4 hours... and Kelly wins her 5th straight immunity challenge. She boots Rudy and now it is down to the final two. But Kelly is not too smart, because she doesn't size up the jury very well. Kelly should have know that Rudy and Sue were going to Rich; she also should have known that she had Jenna, Colleen, and Gervase's vote. So she only needed Greg or Sean's vote... she should have been pandering to them during the final session. She didn't, and lost their vote, and came in second. Wow! Kelly did not have a singe vote against her in a single tribal council... plus... she won 5 straight immunity challenges... but still lost to Rich. Anyway... Rich certainly understood Game Theory a lot better than Kelly, which is why he won. Lori
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OK - last night we had the episode where Sean was kicked out. How about someone just posts the results here ASAP so I can get my wednesday nights back... :) cheers, Chris Maunde
Rich won. Kelly won two immunity challenges at the end to make it to the final two. Kelly's "backstabbing" incident against Sue and her lack of PR skills cost her dearly in the eyes of the jury. It was a tie vote at the end. Greg had the deciding vote and based his vote on asking the remaining two contestants to pick a number between 1 and 10. Rich guessed 7, Kelly guessed 3, the number was 9. I find oh so ironic that all of this hoopla came down to picking a number between 1 and 10. Ha ha ha ha
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Chris Unbelievable... Rich won. Kelly wins the next immunity challenge--a quiz about the personal characteristics of the tribe members. As soon as Kelly wins, good bye Sue. Then its down to Rudy, Kelly, and Rich. The immunity challenge is to stand on a stop and keep touching a poll. Its fascinating because Richard is smart enough to know that he absolutely better not win the immunity challenge, because if he does he'll have to kick Kelly off and then lose to Rudy in the final vote. If he wins the challenge, and kicks Rudy off, betraying the alliance, he loses Rudy's vote in the final. He needs to have Kelly win the immunity challenge, because she will boot Rudy, figuring there is no way she can beat him in the final. So Richard quits the immunity challenge... Rudy quits after 4 hours... and Kelly wins her 5th straight immunity challenge. She boots Rudy and now it is down to the final two. But Kelly is not too smart, because she doesn't size up the jury very well. Kelly should have know that Rudy and Sue were going to Rich; she also should have known that she had Jenna, Colleen, and Gervase's vote. So she only needed Greg or Sean's vote... she should have been pandering to them during the final session. She didn't, and lost their vote, and came in second. Wow! Kelly did not have a singe vote against her in a single tribal council... plus... she won 5 straight immunity challenges... but still lost to Rich. Anyway... Rich certainly understood Game Theory a lot better than Kelly, which is why he won. Lori
Whoa...thanks for that Lori. cheers, Chris Maunde
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The US gets it's version of "The Mole" in the fall
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The "Mole" was invented by 2 guys here in Belgium and it was a great success. Some months ago they won the golden rose of Montreux with the program. Now they are starting here also with Big Brother, The robison crusoe, ..
F Braem I heard the Mole was coming to North America. Big Brother is on here, but isn't that successful. Survivor was actually a very well thought out game that was quite addictive to watch in this round. If you like strategy and Game Theory it is fascinating. As more people figure out how to play the game it will be interesting to see how it develops. It turns that Kelly made a big mistake winning the last immunity challenge. She should have let go, and forced Rich to beat Rudy. Rich would have tossed Rudy, cheesed him off, and lost the final vote. The only other half decent player in the game was Sue, but she threatened Kelly, and it blew up in her face. Now I'm in Survivor withdrawal. LOL Lori
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I can't say that I've watched Big Brother, so I can't comment on that. But Survivor is actually a pretty interesting game. Like success in the office, you need both good strategy and good luck to win. Of course Game Theory discounts luck... I was kind of wondering if they filmed multiple endings, in case the winner's name had somehow been leaked out. The objective isn't just making the final two... that's a dead end strategy if you're there with someone who is better liked than you are. That's why Colleen had to go; no one would want to have to go against her in a 2 person vote. The ideal would be to be pitted against Richard, who is never going to win that final vote. So if it were me, Richard would be my best friend, and the guy I would team up with in the next couple of rounds. Anyway, don't get me going... still an interesting game Theory problem if you ask me. Lori
>> The ideal would be to be pitted against Richard, who is never going to win that final vote. << I believe Kelly has now found the flaw in your logic. (But I'd agree that if she had picked Rich instead of Rudy to be kicked off, Rudy would have won by a larger margin
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F Braem I heard the Mole was coming to North America. Big Brother is on here, but isn't that successful. Survivor was actually a very well thought out game that was quite addictive to watch in this round. If you like strategy and Game Theory it is fascinating. As more people figure out how to play the game it will be interesting to see how it develops. It turns that Kelly made a big mistake winning the last immunity challenge. She should have let go, and forced Rich to beat Rudy. Rich would have tossed Rudy, cheesed him off, and lost the final vote. The only other half decent player in the game was Sue, but she threatened Kelly, and it blew up in her face. Now I'm in Survivor withdrawal. LOL Lori
>>It turns that Kelly made a big mistake winning the last immunity challenge. She should have let go, and forced Rich to beat Rudy. << Still wouldn't have worked. She knows Rich & Rudy were in an alliance. If she let go, then rich would have let go, and Rudy would have won, and then kicked Her off the island. She would have gotten third instead of second. (BTW, Did it run live outside the USA? Or are we confusing our world audience?)
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>>It turns that Kelly made a big mistake winning the last immunity challenge. She should have let go, and forced Rich to beat Rudy. << Still wouldn't have worked. She knows Rich & Rudy were in an alliance. If she let go, then rich would have let go, and Rudy would have won, and then kicked Her off the island. She would have gotten third instead of second. (BTW, Did it run live outside the USA? Or are we confusing our world audience?)
It isn't/wasn't live here in NZ, But I can follow what you are saying about Kelly having lost anyway. I guess if Rich & Rudy were the only two left, then Rudy would have won. So from Rich's point of view, he had to drop out, And then hope Kelly would beat Rudy for the immunity. I think the interesting thing in the game, is the gamesmanship, or is it the voyeurism
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It isn't/wasn't live here in NZ, But I can follow what you are saying about Kelly having lost anyway. I guess if Rich & Rudy were the only two left, then Rudy would have won. So from Rich's point of view, he had to drop out, And then hope Kelly would beat Rudy for the immunity. I think the interesting thing in the game, is the gamesmanship, or is it the voyeurism
The voyeurism angle didn't play well here, even thought the network tried to push it ("Hot Jungle Sex?"). Basically, people first tuned in for the freak show aspect, and got hooked on the gamemanship. I think Kelly lost it as soon as she changed her vote, and kicked Sue off the island. (At the tribal council with 4 people left, on the first vote there was a tie, two each for Rich and Sue. The first tiebreaker was a vote between the others-- in this case, Rudy & Kelly. Kelly switched her vote, and Sue was kicked off the island). Had Kelly held her ground, they would have had to gone to a secondary tie-breaker, presumably one which doesn't involve voting since that's apparently a deadend. Now, if Sue lost that tiebreaker, they'd be in the same situation, but now, Sue isn't pissed off at Kelly. So, in the final vote, she'd probably would have gotten Sue's vote (but maybe lost Colleen's who said she voted for Kelly because of Sue's rant). On the other hand, if Rich lost the tiebreaker, than the whole balance of power shifts, as Sue, Rudy & Kelly move forward. The pole challenge wasn't Rudy's game, so it's doubtful he would have won immunity against Kelly & Sue, so he'd definately be gone in the next vote, as he was in the real one. So, the final choice would have been between Sue & Kelly, and Kelly had few enemies. I wonder if they'd planned the final challenge to be long & boring specifically so the players would plot out their strategy (just as Rich did)
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The voyeurism angle didn't play well here, even thought the network tried to push it ("Hot Jungle Sex?"). Basically, people first tuned in for the freak show aspect, and got hooked on the gamemanship. I think Kelly lost it as soon as she changed her vote, and kicked Sue off the island. (At the tribal council with 4 people left, on the first vote there was a tie, two each for Rich and Sue. The first tiebreaker was a vote between the others-- in this case, Rudy & Kelly. Kelly switched her vote, and Sue was kicked off the island). Had Kelly held her ground, they would have had to gone to a secondary tie-breaker, presumably one which doesn't involve voting since that's apparently a deadend. Now, if Sue lost that tiebreaker, they'd be in the same situation, but now, Sue isn't pissed off at Kelly. So, in the final vote, she'd probably would have gotten Sue's vote (but maybe lost Colleen's who said she voted for Kelly because of Sue's rant). On the other hand, if Rich lost the tiebreaker, than the whole balance of power shifts, as Sue, Rudy & Kelly move forward. The pole challenge wasn't Rudy's game, so it's doubtful he would have won immunity against Kelly & Sue, so he'd definately be gone in the next vote, as he was in the real one. So, the final choice would have been between Sue & Kelly, and Kelly had few enemies. I wonder if they'd planned the final challenge to be long & boring specifically so the players would plot out their strategy (just as Rich did)
I agree that Kelly made a mistake changing her vote, and kicking off Sue. She should have been gunning for Richard, and making sure he was history. Kicking off Sue didn't help her, since she could probably have beaten Sue in the final vote. Kelly's mistake is that she took her eye of the ball, and went for revenge against Sue, instead of plotting to win. Once Rich was gone, Rudy was next, as long as he didn't win the final immunity challenge which was unlikely. With Sue and Kelly in the final, I liked Kelly's chances. But I still think it would have been interesting if Kelly quit the last immunity challenge immediately, and let Rich and Rudy battle it out. I think Rudy would have quit soon after, thinking that for sure Rich would boot Kelly, but we all know Rich wouldn't have, because he would have known he couldn't beat Rudy. So Rich would have booted Rudy, looked like a rat, and lost the final vote. So the bottom line is that Kelly's biggest mistake was winnning the last immunity challenge. She should have "stumbled" 5 minutes into it, before Rich figured out that if he won the immunity challenge it would cost him the game, whereby he immediately dropped out. When Kelly won the last immunity challenge she won the battle but lost the war. Lori
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I agree that Kelly made a mistake changing her vote, and kicking off Sue. She should have been gunning for Richard, and making sure he was history. Kicking off Sue didn't help her, since she could probably have beaten Sue in the final vote. Kelly's mistake is that she took her eye of the ball, and went for revenge against Sue, instead of plotting to win. Once Rich was gone, Rudy was next, as long as he didn't win the final immunity challenge which was unlikely. With Sue and Kelly in the final, I liked Kelly's chances. But I still think it would have been interesting if Kelly quit the last immunity challenge immediately, and let Rich and Rudy battle it out. I think Rudy would have quit soon after, thinking that for sure Rich would boot Kelly, but we all know Rich wouldn't have, because he would have known he couldn't beat Rudy. So Rich would have booted Rudy, looked like a rat, and lost the final vote. So the bottom line is that Kelly's biggest mistake was winnning the last immunity challenge. She should have "stumbled" 5 minutes into it, before Rich figured out that if he won the immunity challenge it would cost him the game, whereby he immediately dropped out. When Kelly won the last immunity challenge she won the battle but lost the war. Lori
I'll have to continue and watch the final episodes, to understand it still, One thing I kept wondering was did the network have a favourite ? Eg. by choosing the immunity challenges like they did did they have too have preferences ! :- an end war / girl vs boy , and young vs old
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I'll have to continue and watch the final episodes, to understand it still, One thing I kept wondering was did the network have a favourite ? Eg. by choosing the immunity challenges like they did did they have too have preferences ! :- an end war / girl vs boy , and young vs old
I don't think that the network was playing favorites, mainly because in the early epsiodes, it was too soon to predict who would be the first ones to go, and the later challeges required too much set up to change at the last minute to adapt to the changing tribe. The one challenge that seemed most obviously tuned to one contestant was the canoe rescue. With 5 members on each team, four would be swimming and the fifth in a canoe rescuing them. Since Gervise couldn't swim, he had to be his team's canoer. And, since Kelly was a white-water canoe instructor, she naturally was her team's canoer. Now, it seems heavily tilted toward Kelly. And yet, Gervise soundly beat her
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I agree that Kelly made a mistake changing her vote, and kicking off Sue. She should have been gunning for Richard, and making sure he was history. Kicking off Sue didn't help her, since she could probably have beaten Sue in the final vote. Kelly's mistake is that she took her eye of the ball, and went for revenge against Sue, instead of plotting to win. Once Rich was gone, Rudy was next, as long as he didn't win the final immunity challenge which was unlikely. With Sue and Kelly in the final, I liked Kelly's chances. But I still think it would have been interesting if Kelly quit the last immunity challenge immediately, and let Rich and Rudy battle it out. I think Rudy would have quit soon after, thinking that for sure Rich would boot Kelly, but we all know Rich wouldn't have, because he would have known he couldn't beat Rudy. So Rich would have booted Rudy, looked like a rat, and lost the final vote. So the bottom line is that Kelly's biggest mistake was winnning the last immunity challenge. She should have "stumbled" 5 minutes into it, before Rich figured out that if he won the immunity challenge it would cost him the game, whereby he immediately dropped out. When Kelly won the last immunity challenge she won the battle but lost the war. Lori
>>When Kelly won the last immunity challenge she won the battle but lost the war.<< No. If she'd lost that challenge, then the Rudy/Rich alliance would have kicked her off at the next tribal council. She needed that get into the final two. Rudy wouldn't have quit. Green beret work ethic, plus he's not planning that far ahead. (As one of the earlier challenges, where they had to video tape answers to questions showed, he wasn't thinking very clearly by this time). I don't think Rich would have booted Rudy had he won the IC. Rudy would have considered that an end of their alliance, and might have voted for Kelly.
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>>When Kelly won the last immunity challenge she won the battle but lost the war.<< No. If she'd lost that challenge, then the Rudy/Rich alliance would have kicked her off at the next tribal council. She needed that get into the final two. Rudy wouldn't have quit. Green beret work ethic, plus he's not planning that far ahead. (As one of the earlier challenges, where they had to video tape answers to questions showed, he wasn't thinking very clearly by this time). I don't think Rich would have booted Rudy had he won the IC. Rudy would have considered that an end of their alliance, and might have voted for Kelly.
James I didn't see the canoe race between Kelly and Gervase, but it sure doesn't surprise me that Gervase, with no experience, won handily. Water stuff, rowing, paddling, etc. is one of the most unequal of sports when it comes to male/female differences. I use to row a bit in University, and I remember how hot the varsity women's crew thought they were. They were a top ranked boat. One day they challenged the heavyweight novice men's crew to a a mile race. These were guys who had just learned to row 2-3 weeks previously. It wasn't even close... the men just absolutely destroyed them by a couple of boats of open water. I soon learned that the fastest women's crew in the world couldn't beat a half decent men's freshman eight. The women's heavy eight that wins the gold medal in Sydney couldn't make the final of the men's junior varsity collegiate championship. As for Kelly having to win the last immunity challenge, I'm about 95% confident that Rich, had he won that immunity challenge, would have booted Rudy. There is no way he is going to want to have to go against Rudy in the final. As for the possibility of Rich beating Rudy, I'm sure he could have if the whole game hinged on that result. In fact, Rudy probably would have coasted thinking that Rich would toss Kelly. I can't blame Kelly for not tanking however, since I am sure she thought she could beat Rich straight up. I'm kind of surprised she didn't. Lori