Time Estimates - Black Art? [modified]
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My estimates are very accurate. When I do err, it's usually on the long side. My methodology is simple, but not easily reproduced since it's entirely based on working in the industry for 18+ years. It's not as conscious and deliberate as I make it sound, but I compare the task presented with comparable tasks from my past experience and those where family, friends and collegues have given me a post mortem type critique (I always do post mortem examinations, though usually they are solitary affairs (see below).) I then factor in the number of assets available, their skill level, how they program, how many meetings are held, how clueless product management is, how indecisive upper management is and even how optimistic the developers are when first told about the project (there is generally an inverse relationship between initial optimism and how long it takes to finish a product.) I also factor in the problem areas I foresee (for example, if printing is required, add two to three months right away), the problems with the computer language and/or environment being used and whether or not a technical writer is going to be hired/assigned sooner or later. (This last requirement may seem weird, but I've found that management's failure to assign a technical writer sooner, or even at all, indicates a certain cluelessness about software development and the unwillingness to spend money on assets whose benefits are not immediately obvious.) Post Mortems: Unfortunately, most companies promise they will do these, but rarely do and if they do, it will be a superficial examination that does more harm than good. The reason is simple; most projects fail because of the people with the big paychecks. If you are brutally honest, the fingers end up being pointed squarely at the VPs, CTO and President/CEO. (In my experience, the worse offenders are usually the top level sales managers, followed closely by the CTO.) Anyone who thinks he has a better idea of what's good for people than people do is a swine. - P.J. O'Rourke
I like the idea of doing post mordems. My time is more like juggling live fish than anything else though, and some of those fish get slippery. Documentation is another poor area of mine. We have technical writers documenting the product, and that's actually out of my cycle and estimates, but does factor into the end date, what I have trouble with is producing documentation for the development itself. Like relationships between data, overview of the framework, using doxygen style comments and actually producing an intranet version of the api. etc.
Joe Woodbury wrote:
he reason is simple; most projects fail because of the people with the big paychecks. If you are brutally honest, the fingers end up being pointed squarely at the VPs, CTO and President/CEO.
This is one of those things that while most people will agree with, in practice the developers take the hit. This statement is false.
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Chris S Kaiser wrote:
I agree with this, but sometimes you get on a project to find out that sales already sold and promised a date to a client. And its either put yourself to the task or gamble with your employment. I'm a little tired of being the nail that stood up only to get pounded down.
In that case, more resources (people and/or money) must be thrown at the problem if the estimates given do not fit the expected timeline. All the while, people must remember that nine women cannot make a baby in one month - some things are a matter of time, plain and simple. Remember - there is always another job. But more than likely, you are a talented developer with existing domain knowledge that is necessary to solve the problem. In other words, there is only one you. It pays to remind people of that fact every now and then. :) Peace! -=- James
If you think it costs a lot to do it right, just wait until you find out how much it costs to do it wrong!
Avoid driving a vehicle taller than you and remember that Professional Driver on Closed Course does not mean your Dumb Ass on a Public Road!
DeleteFXPFiles & CheckFavorites (Please rate this post!)James R. Twine wrote:
nine women cannot make a baby in one month
I'm gonna plagerise this if you don't object. I like it.
James R. Twine wrote:
In other words, there is only one you. It pays to remind people of that fact every now and then.
Yeah, true.. and I'm isolated in this sense. Ever the balancing act. My current scenario really isn't that bad. I would consider it one of the good ones for sure. And the due dates were kinda made before my time. I inherited a project another guy failed to finish. But these things crop up from time to time and I'd just like to get better at managing it from my end. This statement is false.