Mirrors and prisoners

Dan Neely

One in 2 of the A's and C's survive in each cell. None of the B's survive at all. Half of the A's and C's is 100/200, none of the B's is 0/100, for a net result of 100/300 surviving. Before the question you had: Person Chance of survival A 1/3 B 1/3 C 1/3 Total: 1 survivor per cell. After the question you have: Person Chance of survival A 1/2 B 0 C 1/2 Total: 1 survivor per cell.

-- You have to explain to them [VB coders] what you mean by "typed". their first response is likely to be something like, "Of course my code is typed. Do you think i magically project it onto the screen with the power of my mind?" --- John Simmons / outlaw programmer

Chadlling

Fred... multiplying the number of cells doesn't change the basic analysis. I think you are stretching the notion of "probability" outside its natural domain. Probability hinges on possible outcomes. What if the guard at 9:00 pm tells A, B, and C that 2 will die in the morning. but at midnight tells A he is going to be spared and tells B he is going to die and tells C nothing. Because probabilities hinge on possible outcomes, they will change for different people at different times. At 9:00 A/B/C all have a 1/3 chance of survival. At 12:00 the probability of survival is relevant to each person, dependent on how many possible outcomes are still viable. At midnight: A has a 100% probability of surviving B has a 0% chance of surviving C has a 33.3% chance of surviving You are thinking of probability as an absolute, when it is dependent on the individual, the timeline, and the availability of information. A and B know that C is going to die, but C doesn't, so his probablity (personal to him) is still 33.3%. If probability equals outcome/possible outcomes... there is no issue here. Because possible outcomes are entirely dependent on the flow of information. Let's say I pick one card out of a deck of cards, identify the card without showing it to you, and then putting it face down, while telling you that I will give you a million dollars if you tell me what card it is? What is the probability of winning the million? That is an unanswerable question, until you specify whose perspective you are talking about. Before you take your guess what is the probability that you will win. My perspective 1/52 Your perspective 1/52 God's perspective ?? There is no such thing as probability when talking about God because God operates outside of time, where there are no "possible outcomes" there is only THE outcome. You guess, but I haven't turned the card over. Your perspective still 1/52 My persoective ?? Probability no longer applies to me because the notion of possible outcomes has disapeared. Once I turn the card over, the notion of probability disappears for you too, since possible outcomes have also evaporated. It should not surprise you that probabilities change in accordance with information that changes the number of possible outcomes.

Dalek Dave

If a woman is moaning and her husband isn't there to hear it, is it still his fault? Also eggs came first, eggs were around hundreds of millions of years before chickens.

Dalek Dave

My son just got his GCSE results, Maths grade A, Further Maths grade A and Math and Stats grade C. We put the grade C down to Standard Deviation.

barney_parker

it might not be his fault as such, but he still has some level of responsibility!