Where did all the money go?

Oakman

fat_boy wrote:

In sumary, its time to get of your high horse. The UK is f***ed. It is nothing. It is finished. Time to accept that fact.

Interesting. If I am reading this right, every SB-er who lives in France - even an ex-pat like you - seems to need to believe that the UK is going down for the last time, but that new French Empire (aka EU) is somehow going to be untouched by the global crisis. Yet Reuters has just reported a record low euro zone business and consumer confidence and says that the euro zone economy is sinking deeper into its first recession. Why the disconnect?

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Lost User

Oakman wrote:

Why the disconnect?

I know businesses in the UK do better in general, they have easier employment laws, one of the big burdens the Eurozone has. But, the ease of lending pushed house prices up in the UK beyond all reasonable values. Now the bubble has burst a large part of the UK populaiton is facing negative equity of around £50,000 plus. Add this to an average credit card debt of around £15,000 PER PERSON, and IF the banks dont start lending, but instead start forclosing, then the debt level per capita will be so high it wil take the UK ten years before the populace are capable of spending money on anything except food and clothes. Then unemployment. It is rising massively. And the impact on the internal business structure (ie that services home customers) is going to be catastrophic further adding to the unenployment levels and speeding the downturn. House prioces in the UK are, at a reasonable estimate, were least 40$ overvalued. They have corrected by 20% already. And theres lots of downside still to go. The UK is hanging by a thread over a pit of ecconomic and hence social collapse the like of which will shock the world when the thread snaps. Which is what it will do by october. Unless the banks are forced to lend.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Dalek Dave

Oakman wrote:

Why the disconnect?

One word - FEAR!

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Lost User

Jesus, you're such a scaremonger. Your posts read like fucking Daily Mail headlines and, to be honest, you're starting to sound like a broken record. So we're in a recession, but it won't last forever. Sure it's going to hurt, recessions always do, but we'll get through it. If everyone thought like you we'd never get out of bed in the fucking morning. Being born in the UK, France, or anywhere else in the West is a massive stroke of good fortune compared to what the rest of the developing world has to endure, so I think we can handle the economy contracting by a few percent. People will still eat. They will still get healthcare. There won't be food riots and there won't be 'social collapse'. The housing market was always going to crash; it has before and it will again, and governments the world over aren't going to let the banking system fall off a cliff and totally collapse. We'll still be here arguing the toss this time next year, mark my words.

Chris Austin

Exactly. I am amazed reading some of these arguments.

Sovereign ingredient for a happy marriage: Pay cash or do without. Interest charges not only eat up a household budget; awareness of debt eats up domestic felicity. --Lazarus Long

Lost User

Britain will hurt. But Britain will eventually recover. But your remark "economic and hence social collapse" is not helpful but can understand why you suggest that, but I don't see Britain, no more than America sinking into oblivion.

Oakman

Dalek Dave wrote:

One word - FEAR!

It seems from this side of the puddle that every French SB-er is in denial about the effects of the crisis on the EU/France and gloating over the problems that the UK has - while providing what seem to be faith-based assurances that the UK's only hope of salvation is to remain in the EU.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Dalek Dave

Britain has always looked west. We may have our obligations to Europe, especially our obligations to save France from German domination. But we are culturally and politically closer to the US and Canada. An old alliance, tempered over the years by differences, but still a strong bond as H Clinton said yesterday.

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Oakman

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

But you and I agree that any American protectionism will be bad news for all and Europe will need to have a robust response.

Perhaps the EU could start by lowering its own trade barriers? Or do you believe they don't exist?

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

Presently, EU without UK participation is unthinkable

To whom? The UK or to the EU?

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Lost User

Jon, there is no getting away from the fact that if UK withdraws its membership of the EU that it will adversely affect the quantity and quality of trade. As UK no longer trades to the extent it once did with Commonwealth nations, there would be no short-term comfort to be had by trying to re-establish those trade-links. If USA chooses to go protectionist (as reported might happen - personally I doubt that outcome though), then the world, not just Britain, would be in for a very long winded bumpy ride. Boosting trade with China would be nice but again not a short-term solution. That leaves EU, and the relationship between UK & EU thus cannot fail. Salvation ? no, necessary.

Lost User

Oakman wrote:

Perhaps the EU could start by lowering its own trade barriers? Or do you believe they don't exist?

Yes they exist for some commodities, and they should be removed on a like for like basis with barriers that exist in America and other countries.

Oakman wrote:

To whom? The UK or to the EU?

Both.

KaRl

Rob Caldecott wrote:

People will still eat. They will still get healthcare.

Really? Some people already don't. Not everybody has something to eat everyday, and a growing number have no access to health care. I don't think the crisis will help to solve this situation, on the contrary.

Rob Caldecott wrote:

there won't be 'social collapse'.

I disagree. I think there could be huge social disorders, which are already starting this side of the Channel.

The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread Fold with us! ¤ flickr

Dalek Dave

yeah, started in 1914

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Oakman

Dalek Dave wrote:

An old alliance, tempered over the years by differences, but still a strong bond as H Clinton said yesterday.

No question. (Although we still owe you one for burning the White House :mad: )

Dalek Dave wrote:

We may have our obligations to Europe, especially our obligations to save France from German domination.

Maybe that should be rethought. ;)

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Dalek Dave

If UK were outside the EU, would we still trade with it? Yep, example... We are one of the biggest markets for French Wines and French Cars. German Cars and German Pizzas (Seriously). Italian Leather and Italian Cheese. Etc They would want to sell to us, so they could not close our market down. We would be like Norway and Switzerland, a trading partner, not but part of the EU. Look at those poor third world European Countries like Norway and Switzerland, think how much richer they would be. All they have to do is give up their own laws and currencies and surrender themselves to the unelected commissioners that rule by dictat without democratic elections and they too could enjoy the lack of freedoms and rights that we do. They could give up their successful economies too, so that they could pay for Poland and Romania. Or perhaps the thought of UK surviving outside the EU, not being saddled with the CAP and producing as much milk and meat and grain as it could and therefore selling it far cheaper than anyone else in Europe upsets you. Maybe it is our trade links and free entry to the US market that hurts deep down? OK, UK is in trouble, but it is far from fucked.

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Lost User

Rob Caldecott wrote:

Jesus, you're such a scaremonger. Your posts read like f***ing Daily Mail headlines

Recall, oh, whats his name, the chancellor, his comments last year in september. He said the economy was in a frightening state. He was right. Bcak in october the system nearly colapsed. Tell me, what kind of conversations do you think are being held behind closed doors onm the corridors of power that could result in an interest rate cut of 1.5%? Tell you what, they were scary, Scary as in, 'if we dont do this we are going down the pan' 'and hope to god its enough'. Yes, the UK will recover, people are like that, but dont think for one minute that house prices will get back to the same dizzying heights they did in 2007. The machine is broken. And they are not going to put it back together. All the govt can do is by taking ownership of the banks not forclose on mortage repayment failure. Quite whaty the state of the property becomes is anyoes guess. PArt owned by the govt, to whom the ex-owner now pays rent? Sounds like council housing to me. Perhaps it is what has to happen to save the UK.

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Dalek Dave

Oakman wrote:

Although we still owe you one for burning the White House

Hey, you got a nice new one in it's place! (Who you put in it is your own business!)

Oakman wrote:

Dalek Dave wrote: We may have our obligations to Europe, especially our obligations to save France from German domination. Maybe that should be rethought

Hmm 1914, 1939, 2009(?)

------------------------------------ "Your manuscript is both good and original. But the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good." Dr Samuel Johnson

Lost User

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

But Britain will eventually recover

Yeah, in about 10 years.

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

But your remark "economic and hence social collapse" is not helpful

Neither is cancer, but its often the truth. OK, facileness aside, The UK is on the brink of collapse. One way out is to massively devalue the pound and go back to a manufacturing exporting state, but its going to take years (10) to pay off the collective debt built up by false property prices. Tell me, house proces have come off by 20%. How much more do you reken they need to go before they reach 'fair value' (when banks will start lending on property again? That difference is the negative equity sum owners will be saddled with if they fail to make payments and the house is reposessed. Next, how long will that debt take to pay off assuming work can be found? During that period of paying of (possibly £50,000) will people be eating out? Going on holiday? Buying new cars? New TVs?

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription

Oakman

I note in passing that implicit in what you are saying is there are strong protectionist barriers placed by the EU when it comes to trade with non member countries.

Richard A. Abbott wrote:

Salvation ? no, necessary

Something tells me that France will do everything in its power slowly to reduce the UK to third world status as long as you remain in. FWIW, my guess is that if the US becomes more protectionist - say to the same amount that our trading partners are - it will very quickly create a meaningful "most favored nation" status for a few countries like Canada, Ireland, Israel and Great Britain. But that's just conjecture. I do see where you are coming from.

Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.

Lost User

Oakman wrote:

French SB-er is in denial about the effects of the crisis on the EU/France and gloating over the problems that the UK has

No gloating here. Our UK house has halved its euro value in the last 12 months. I fully expect it to drop another 20% in sterling, and if sterling devalues as I believe it must and it has already by 40% against the euro) then take off another 20% in euros terms. I am not gloating, just looking at reality. And plenty of people in the UK want to keep hoping, and not acting. (And I wish we had sold, because come october I would have been able to buy 4 houses)

Morality is indistinguishable from social proscription