Some whacky ideas
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Rob Graham wrote:
And Secy. Clinton seems to have just given them a freer hand...
You noticed that, too: "Let's you and me beat him up" I wonder if there's an accurate count of the number of times giant armies from Greater China have decided they wanted a piece of Russia, India, etc.
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
Sometimes Russia and India were not enough - just how big was Genghis Khan's empire?
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Stan Shannon wrote:
The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors.
I would argue that that is not at all the case, but rather that we tend to take to short a view of those cycles (and perhaps lack enough data). 1837, 1873, 1930, 2008... Not many data points to figure out what the long cycle might be, but 35-60 years looks suspicious. This[^] is a strong candidate in my opinion.
I am a strong believer in hisotric cycles. There are cycles within cycles as with most complex systems. Consider 1776-1860-1940 average about 80 years or so, about a single life span. That means that the next great catastrophy in our national history is only about a decade away. That would jive well with a depression lasting about 10 years or so. Right on schedule. We have a few more years of national economic and social turbulance, than some kind of great confrontation between warring principles.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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I think you misunderstood, or I made my point poorly (most likely). I was disagreeing with Stan's contention that the old economic/political cycles did not apply, and that the extent of crisis was largely fabricated. I think the long cycle theory supports another severe depression in the current time frame, and think the Democrats will have a difficult time sorting it out. If anything, I thing they will prolong it, although that will be difficult to prove (just as it has remained with FDR's efforts). It will sort itself out, but likely not for a decade or more again, and when it does, the world will be vastly different, just as it was the last couple of times. I just worry that wid scale war is the 'sort it out ' mechanism, it sure looks like it could be...
Rob Graham wrote:
I was disagreeing with Stan's contention that the old economic/political cycles did not apply, and that the extent of crisis was largely fabricated
That isn't my contention, it is merely a possibility that I don't think can be ignored. Even if the crisis is fabricated, however, that doesn't mean an end to the problem. It means that someone has the power to fabricate such a crisis for thier own purposes - which is a crisis in its own right. Either way, we have a crisis.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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Rob Graham wrote:
I was disagreeing with Stan's contention that the old economic/political cycles did not apply, and that the extent of crisis was largely fabricated
That isn't my contention, it is merely a possibility that I don't think can be ignored. Even if the crisis is fabricated, however, that doesn't mean an end to the problem. It means that someone has the power to fabricate such a crisis for thier own purposes - which is a crisis in its own right. Either way, we have a crisis.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Stan Shannon wrote:
Either way, we have a crisis.
Agreed. And given the politicization of the press, the means exist. And they're all playing along (what's worrisome is that Fox is playing along with the gloom and doom line too, just painting it a different shade). Although i don't think the initial crisis was fabricated, they've definitely jumped on it as a means to an end.
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I am a strong believer in hisotric cycles. There are cycles within cycles as with most complex systems. Consider 1776-1860-1940 average about 80 years or so, about a single life span. That means that the next great catastrophy in our national history is only about a decade away. That would jive well with a depression lasting about 10 years or so. Right on schedule. We have a few more years of national economic and social turbulance, than some kind of great confrontation between warring principles.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Sadly, I see much the same thing. I don't see this as a conspiracy so much as just the result of some natural cycle we don't understand. Perhaps we can influence the amplitude in small ways, but I suspect we don't know how to influence the frequency. The coincidence of wide scale warfare and the apparent frequency of major contractions is disturbing, but makes sense in the most macabre way.
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Sadly, I see much the same thing. I don't see this as a conspiracy so much as just the result of some natural cycle we don't understand. Perhaps we can influence the amplitude in small ways, but I suspect we don't know how to influence the frequency. The coincidence of wide scale warfare and the apparent frequency of major contractions is disturbing, but makes sense in the most macabre way.
Rob Graham wrote:
Sadly, I see much the same thing. I don't see this as a conspiracy so much as just the result of some natural cycle we don't understand. Perhaps we can influence the amplitude in small ways, but I suspect we don't know how to influence the frequency. The coincidence of wide scale warfare and the apparent frequency of major contractions is disturbing, but makes sense in the most macabre way.
I don't rule out the very real possibility of conspiracy. Consider that the American revolution was most certainly the consequence of conspiracy. The Civil War had very real conspiratorial causal factors, as did WWII. Almost all major historic events happen when and why they do because of powerful forces purposefully at work to bring about desired results. They play a far more major role in history than what history itself will ever acknowledge. But such conspiracies merely take advantage of very real and uncontrollable economic and social processes constantly at work. Its all a matter of timing, things suddenly coming together at the same time in a way that mutually reinforces otherwise indepedent factors, which probably explains the cycles.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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Rob Graham wrote:
Sadly, I see much the same thing. I don't see this as a conspiracy so much as just the result of some natural cycle we don't understand. Perhaps we can influence the amplitude in small ways, but I suspect we don't know how to influence the frequency. The coincidence of wide scale warfare and the apparent frequency of major contractions is disturbing, but makes sense in the most macabre way.
I don't rule out the very real possibility of conspiracy. Consider that the American revolution was most certainly the consequence of conspiracy. The Civil War had very real conspiratorial causal factors, as did WWII. Almost all major historic events happen when and why they do because of powerful forces purposefully at work to bring about desired results. They play a far more major role in history than what history itself will ever acknowledge. But such conspiracies merely take advantage of very real and uncontrollable economic and social processes constantly at work. Its all a matter of timing, things suddenly coming together at the same time in a way that mutually reinforces otherwise indepedent factors, which probably explains the cycles.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Stan Shannon wrote:
I don't rule out the very real possibility of conspiracy.
I'll just bet you don't. It was really the socialists who snuck in on September 10th and mined the twin towers, wasn't it? And killed Cock Robin?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Sometimes Russia and India were not enough - just how big was Genghis Khan's empire?
Rob Graham wrote:
Sometimes Russia and India were not enough - just how big was Genghis Khan's empire?
So you are saying Europe may be facing the Wrath of Khan?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Stan Shannon wrote:
Either way, we have a crisis.
Agreed. And given the politicization of the press, the means exist. And they're all playing along (what's worrisome is that Fox is playing along with the gloom and doom line too, just painting it a different shade). Although i don't think the initial crisis was fabricated, they've definitely jumped on it as a means to an end.
Rob Graham wrote:
Although i don't think the initial crisis was fabricated, they've definitely jumped on it as a means to an end.
I think a lot of the media as well as most politicans think that the problems we face are surmountable in a year or two and thusly they are all jockying for position to insure the best possible advantage when everything returns to "normal." These days we even have Bill Clinton telling Obama to smile more, not act like this was a big problem. . .
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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BoneSoft wrote:
What struck me as interesting, was the recent action of these states, proposing bills that warn the fed in no uncertain terms that "if you pull any of this crap, we're outa here". Makes me wonder even more what we're not being told.
That is a most interesting and encouraging sign. The simple fact of the matter is that most of the power exercised by the modern federal government at virtually every level is flagrantly unconstitutional, and was declared unconstitutional at some point in our history. None of it could stand up to a real, heartfelt, contest in the courts. That is the greatest challange for the left - preventing the American people from realizing that the entire power structure of the US federal governemnt is literally built on a house of cards - bizarre and contorted interpretations of a constitution that was crafted specifically to disallow most of this kind of behavior. The only reason it has been acceptable to so many for so long is because we have benefitted from it economically. Now that it becomes more and more economically onerous, the challange of keeping it in place will be ever more daunting. That is precisely why I welcome the eonomic chaos, and hope it continues and worsens. It took economic devastation to create it, and it will take economic devastation to destroy it. One way or another, if it is real, it should all precipitate the greatest constitutional crisis in our history. Once it all starts to unravel, it will unravel completely.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Stan Shannon wrote:
That is precisely why I welcome the eonomic chaos, and hope it continues and worsen
But , I thougt you said the only possible outcomes were a socialist world leader, or anarchy ? Why do you welcome that ?
Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista.
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Rob Graham wrote:
Although i don't think the initial crisis was fabricated, they've definitely jumped on it as a means to an end.
I think a lot of the media as well as most politicans think that the problems we face are surmountable in a year or two and thusly they are all jockying for position to insure the best possible advantage when everything returns to "normal." These days we even have Bill Clinton telling Obama to smile more, not act like this was a big problem. . .
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
Sure, now that they've scared the Congress out of another $700B from the taxpayers bottomless pocket, they're beginning to worry about that old self-fulfilling prophecy thing. But you heard not one bit of that before it was signed, sealed and delivered.
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Stan Shannon wrote:
I don't rule out the very real possibility of conspiracy.
I'll just bet you don't. It was really the socialists who snuck in on September 10th and mined the twin towers, wasn't it? And killed Cock Robin?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
Oakman wrote:
It was really the socialists who snuck in on September 10th and mined the twin towers, wasn't it?
No, I think 9/11 was exactly what it appeared to be. But that doesn't mean that it wasn't a conspiracy.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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Stan Shannon wrote:
That is precisely why I welcome the eonomic chaos, and hope it continues and worsen
But , I thougt you said the only possible outcomes were a socialist world leader, or anarchy ? Why do you welcome that ?
Christian Graus Driven to the arms of OSX by Vista.
Christian Graus wrote:
I thougt you said the only possible outcomes were a socialist world leader, or anarchy ? Why do you welcome that ?
No, I said the conspiratorial plan would be to make it appear that we have only two options - socialism or anarchy. Obviously, most would choose socialism. A complete collapse puts everything back in play - all the options would be back on the table.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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Sure, now that they've scared the Congress out of another $700B from the taxpayers bottomless pocket, they're beginning to worry about that old self-fulfilling prophecy thing. But you heard not one bit of that before it was signed, sealed and delivered.
Rob Graham wrote:
they've scared the Congress out of another $700B from the taxpayers bottomless pocket
well ... mine's not bottomless, but it has a hole in it and guess what Congress is squeezing now.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
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Rob Graham wrote:
they've scared the Congress out of another $700B from the taxpayers bottomless pocket
well ... mine's not bottomless, but it has a hole in it and guess what Congress is squeezing now.
Mike - typical white guy. The USA does have universal healthcare, but you have to pay for it. D'oh. Thomas Mann - "Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." The NYT - my leftist brochure. Calling an illegal alien an “undocumented immigrant” is like calling a drug dealer an “unlicensed pharmacist”. God doesn't believe in atheists, therefore they don't exist.
I heard that! :rolleyes:
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I think a small part of what is going on is "normal" - after 8 years of republican domination things were likely to move left a bit, particularly with an increasingly unpopular war. The 2nd Bush term was full of blunders, staring with the waste of political capital on SS reform, katrina, and corruption problems. All of these would have resulted in a change of direction (as the 2006 election showed). The incredible economic mess that began to be obvious in 2007 with the collapse of Countrywide, that was either missed or ignored by the administration, leading to the October 2008 collapse - just sealed the outcome (and made it sufficiently one-sided to insure that in the early going the winners could claim and exercise a "mandate"). Add to that the "prophsies of impending economic calamity" started by Paulson, and gleefully picked up by Obama, and you have what we see. The "New World Order" conspiracy stuff still seems a very big stretch, but it is not a surprise to see conservatives adopting it, it serves as a convenient way to avoid having to admit that they bungled the last 4 years (at least) and threw away their access to power for the foreseeable future.
Rob Graham wrote:
after 8 years of republican domination things were likely to move left a bit, particularly with an increasingly unpopular war.
On the other hand, the last 8 years hardly represented a normal presidential term - a devastating terrorist attack on the US, a hurricane that drowned an entire city, weapons of mass destruction that weren't there, and a collapse of the banking system. I refuse to blame Bush for not handling all of that as perfectly as it might have been handled. Which president ever has done so? Why so much vitriolic criticism? An overt demonization of conservatism. How fucking convenient. Even if all those crisis were exactly what they appeared to be, they were still manipulated by people who had everything to gain from any degree of failure of a Republican administration.
Rob Graham wrote:
The "New World Order" conspiracy stuff still seems a very big stretch,
Its more than a bit of a stretch. I acknowledge that. I obviously have no idea whats really going on. But the timeing of it all is certainly more than a bit curious.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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That would only be true if what we are being told about the extent of the financial crisis is not true. If it is true, we are in a completely different ball game. The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors. But certainly, if the crisis is not nearly as bad as defined, if Obama can get control of it, than absolutely, they will have control for the next seveal decades, if not permanently. Conservatism will have been entirely invalidated as a viable political option. The pendulum might swing back in some direction, but it will never swing back towards anything resembling traditional American civilization.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Stan Shannon wrote:
That would only be true if what we are being told about the extent of the financial crisis is not true. If it is true, we are in a completely different ball game. The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors. But certainly, if the crisis is not nearly as bad as defined, if Obama can get control of it, than absolutely, they will have control for the next seveal decades, if not permanently. Conservatism will have been entirely invalidated as a viable political option. The pendulum might swing back in some direction, but it will never swing back towards anything resembling traditional American civilization.
We aren't in a completely different ball game. We are in the same ball game as in the Great Depression: the need for government to save capitalism's arse. Government succeeded in doing that in the Great Depression. This time around it will do it more quickly and with less pain because of what was learned then and subsequently. So Obama will "get control of it" and we apparently agree on what will follow from that. I know you don't agree with the economic diagnosis. After all, "government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem". It was, at best, a very partial truth when Reagan said it and now people are going to realise it.
John Carson
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Stan Shannon wrote:
That would only be true if what we are being told about the extent of the financial crisis is not true. If it is true, we are in a completely different ball game. The old historic cycles are completely useless as predictors. But certainly, if the crisis is not nearly as bad as defined, if Obama can get control of it, than absolutely, they will have control for the next seveal decades, if not permanently. Conservatism will have been entirely invalidated as a viable political option. The pendulum might swing back in some direction, but it will never swing back towards anything resembling traditional American civilization.
We aren't in a completely different ball game. We are in the same ball game as in the Great Depression: the need for government to save capitalism's arse. Government succeeded in doing that in the Great Depression. This time around it will do it more quickly and with less pain because of what was learned then and subsequently. So Obama will "get control of it" and we apparently agree on what will follow from that. I know you don't agree with the economic diagnosis. After all, "government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem". It was, at best, a very partial truth when Reagan said it and now people are going to realise it.
John Carson
John Carson wrote:
We are in the same ball game as in the Great Depression
Not according to Soros.
John Carson wrote:
Government succeeded in doing that in the Great Depression
Actually, it didn't, and the belief that it did actually makes the current problems (if they are real) all the more dangerous. Capitalism ultimately saved the government after 10 years of the government trying to beat it to death.
John Carson wrote:
So Obama will "get control of it" and we apparently agree on what will follow from that.
Not if he follows FDR's lead. FDR had control of nothing. The undelieing social integrity of the US is what really held society together until the aftermath of WWII left American capitalism as the savior of the world. If this crisis is actually as bad as it is being characterized, and Obama tries to deal with it as FDR did, we are fucking doomed. It won't work.
John Carson wrote:
I know you don't agree with the economic diagnosis. After all, "government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem". It was, at best, a very partial truth when Reagan said it and now people are going to realise it.
The kind of government you promote is most certainly the problem. And will continue to be until it is finally destroyed.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
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Oakman wrote:
It was really the socialists who snuck in on September 10th and mined the twin towers, wasn't it?
No, I think 9/11 was exactly what it appeared to be. But that doesn't mean that it wasn't a conspiracy.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.
Stan Shannon wrote:
No, I think 9/11 was exactly what it appeared to be. But that doesn't mean that it wasn't a conspiracy
Whenever two or more people plan a crime together it's a conspiracy. So why bother talking about it?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
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Stan Shannon wrote:
No, I think 9/11 was exactly what it appeared to be. But that doesn't mean that it wasn't a conspiracy
Whenever two or more people plan a crime together it's a conspiracy. So why bother talking about it?
Jon Smith & Wesson: The original point and click interface Algoraphobia: An exaggerated fear of the outside world rooted in the belief that one might spontaneously combust due to global warming.
Oakman wrote:
Whenever two or more people plan a crime together it's a conspiracy. So why bother talking about it?
Because 3000 people died as a result.
Chaining ourselves to the moral high ground does not make us good guys. Aside from making us easy targets, it merely makes us idiotic prisoners of our own self loathing.