Gartner predictions (just wondering)
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Here is their latest. PC 2009 Shipments will fall[^] Anyone know of a link that measures the historical success of their predictions?
Over the years, I've found that just making shit up is more accurate than Gartner.
Anyone who thinks he has a better idea of what's good for people than people do is a swine. - P.J. O'Rourke
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Over the years, I've found that just making shit up is more accurate than Gartner.
Anyone who thinks he has a better idea of what's good for people than people do is a swine. - P.J. O'Rourke
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Here is their latest. PC 2009 Shipments will fall[^] Anyone know of a link that measures the historical success of their predictions?
I'm pretty sure the Gartner methodology for making these kind of predictions is something like: 1) Find a blindingly obvious factoid (the sky is blue) 2) Make ridiculously obvious prediction about said factoid (the sky will be blue in 2009) 3) Attach meaningless statistic pulled from ass to blindingly obvious prediction about factoid (the sky will be blue at least 13.4% of the year in 2009) Seriously, these guys couldn't predict themselves through an open barn door in broad daylight (with blue skies no less!).
¡El diablo está en mis pantalones! ¡Mire, mire! SELECT * FROM User WHERE Clue > 0 0 rows returned Save an Orange - Use the VCF! VCF Blog Just Say No to Web 2 Point Oh
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Here is their latest. PC 2009 Shipments will fall[^] Anyone know of a link that measures the historical success of their predictions?
Gartner Predicts Apple Will OutSell Linux, Windows 7 Will Fail, Zune will Break Even, Cats and Dogs Will Live In Peace and Steve Jobs Will Reveal Alien Parents[^] Gartner are seriously worse at predicting industry trends than the Weather Network in Canada is at predicting the weekend weather.
cheers, Chris Maunder CodeProject.com : C++ MVP
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I'm pretty sure the Gartner methodology for making these kind of predictions is something like: 1) Find a blindingly obvious factoid (the sky is blue) 2) Make ridiculously obvious prediction about said factoid (the sky will be blue in 2009) 3) Attach meaningless statistic pulled from ass to blindingly obvious prediction about factoid (the sky will be blue at least 13.4% of the year in 2009) Seriously, these guys couldn't predict themselves through an open barn door in broad daylight (with blue skies no less!).
¡El diablo está en mis pantalones! ¡Mire, mire! SELECT * FROM User WHERE Clue > 0 0 rows returned Save an Orange - Use the VCF! VCF Blog Just Say No to Web 2 Point Oh
Well you guys (so far) are all echoing my own beliefs. Problem is I am having trouble finding evidence and that seems wrong given how long they've been at it. I mean here's a company that makes how much money predicting and no one is tracking and publishing their success rate. I mean it seems like a very simple thing to do, or am I missing something?
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Gartner Predicts Apple Will OutSell Linux, Windows 7 Will Fail, Zune will Break Even, Cats and Dogs Will Live In Peace and Steve Jobs Will Reveal Alien Parents[^] Gartner are seriously worse at predicting industry trends than the Weather Network in Canada is at predicting the weekend weather.
cheers, Chris Maunder CodeProject.com : C++ MVP
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Well you guys (so far) are all echoing my own beliefs. Problem is I am having trouble finding evidence and that seems wrong given how long they've been at it. I mean here's a company that makes how much money predicting and no one is tracking and publishing their success rate. I mean it seems like a very simple thing to do, or am I missing something?
Well I would guess a lot of people simply don't bother to even take them seriously at all. Another section of folks order their stuff/services/whatever-the-hell-it-is-they-charge-for simply because they heard the "other" guys all do it. The rest don't care. The IT "journalists" would actually have to - gasp - research this and dig up some numbers. That's as likely as pigs flying. Perhaps there's an NDA requirement in some of their (Gartners) stuff that might prevent this? For example, say you want to research this, and go and back order some older Gartner predictions but to get this you need to order it through Gartner. Maybe they disallow quoting any information from it in public media? I would be curious to know what percentage of companies who order Gartner reports: 1) actually act on the information in the report 2) actually benefit from the actions they took based on the report's info I do know that one place where I consulted at did take Gartners advice regarding their tool choice for a software project, and it was largely a disastrous choice.
¡El diablo está en mis pantalones! ¡Mire, mire! SELECT * FROM User WHERE Clue > 0 0 rows returned Save an Orange - Use the VCF! VCF Blog Just Say No to Web 2 Point Oh
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Well I would guess a lot of people simply don't bother to even take them seriously at all. Another section of folks order their stuff/services/whatever-the-hell-it-is-they-charge-for simply because they heard the "other" guys all do it. The rest don't care. The IT "journalists" would actually have to - gasp - research this and dig up some numbers. That's as likely as pigs flying. Perhaps there's an NDA requirement in some of their (Gartners) stuff that might prevent this? For example, say you want to research this, and go and back order some older Gartner predictions but to get this you need to order it through Gartner. Maybe they disallow quoting any information from it in public media? I would be curious to know what percentage of companies who order Gartner reports: 1) actually act on the information in the report 2) actually benefit from the actions they took based on the report's info I do know that one place where I consulted at did take Gartners advice regarding their tool choice for a software project, and it was largely a disastrous choice.
¡El diablo está en mis pantalones! ¡Mire, mire! SELECT * FROM User WHERE Clue > 0 0 rows returned Save an Orange - Use the VCF! VCF Blog Just Say No to Web 2 Point Oh
Jim Crafton wrote:
I do know that one place where I consulted at did take Gartners advice regarding their tool choice for a software project, and it was largely a disastrous choice.
That sounds almost as bad as the deciders in my company taking their own advice regarding their tool choice for a software project. :laugh:
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You are hereby awarded the silver medal of the "Order of Hoisting Petard" with bronze-leaf clusters in recognition of this outstanding riposte to the randomly ludicrous. best, Bill
"Many : not conversant with mathematical studies, imagine that because it [the Analytical Engine] is to give results in numerical notation, its processes must consequently be arithmetical, numerical, rather than algebraical and analytical. This is an error. The engine can arrange and combine numerical quantities as if they were letters or any other general symbols; and it fact it might bring out its results in algebraical notation, were provisions made accordingly." Ada, Countess Lovelace, 1844
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Here is their latest. PC 2009 Shipments will fall[^] Anyone know of a link that measures the historical success of their predictions?
Unfortunately I know of no site that routinely tracks the success rate of prognosticators of any kind except those of the financial ilk. My own estimation of Gartner predictions is approximately the same as that of Jeanne Dixon[^]. I suspect that they rely (relied) on the same data sources.
"A Journey of a Thousand Rest Stops Begins with a Single Movement"
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Chris Maunder wrote:
the weekend weather.
Ever considered migrating further south? The mid and southern US West has lots of great weekend weather. :-D
led mike wrote:
The mid and southern US West has lots of great weekend weather. Big Grin Quote Selected Text
... if your idea of fun is being covered in sweat. X|
Today's lesson is brought to you by the word "niggardly". Remember kids, don't attribute to racism what can be explained by Scandinavian language roots. -- Robert Royall
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led mike wrote:
The mid and southern US West has lots of great weekend weather. Big Grin Quote Selected Text
... if your idea of fun is being covered in sweat. X|
Today's lesson is brought to you by the word "niggardly". Remember kids, don't attribute to racism what can be explained by Scandinavian language roots. -- Robert Royall
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You are hereby awarded the silver medal of the "Order of Hoisting Petard" with bronze-leaf clusters in recognition of this outstanding riposte to the randomly ludicrous. best, Bill
"Many : not conversant with mathematical studies, imagine that because it [the Analytical Engine] is to give results in numerical notation, its processes must consequently be arithmetical, numerical, rather than algebraical and analytical. This is an error. The engine can arrange and combine numerical quantities as if they were letters or any other general symbols; and it fact it might bring out its results in algebraical notation, were provisions made accordingly." Ada, Countess Lovelace, 1844