The Euro, the next 6 months [modified]
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So, aparently Greece lied about its finances whend it joined the Euro, and should never have been let in in the first place.^[] Now there is talk of Greece temporarily leaving the euro (and not rejoining untill it gets its finances straight, ie, never). The word 'temporary' is of course calming for the market.^[] And there are rumours of Greece already printing Drachmas: ^[] It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment, ^[
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So, aparently Greece lied about its finances whend it joined the Euro, and should never have been let in in the first place.^[] Now there is talk of Greece temporarily leaving the euro (and not rejoining untill it gets its finances straight, ie, never). The word 'temporary' is of course calming for the market.^[] And there are rumours of Greece already printing Drachmas: ^[] It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment, ^[
By continuing all of these meeting and discussions, the euro banks get the opportunity to at least unload their Greek debt holdings. The smart ones are doing so already even though it's a 60 to 65 cent haircut. Soon enough, Greece will be removed from the EUC, it will then repudiate it's debt and begin printing 'new' Drachma currency. Oh and I'm pretty sure the sun is going to rise tomorrow. Just look in the east, you'll see it rising. :)
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra] posting about Crystal Reports here is like discussing gay marriage on a catholic church’s website.[Nishant Sivakumar]
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So, aparently Greece lied about its finances whend it joined the Euro, and should never have been let in in the first place.^[] Now there is talk of Greece temporarily leaving the euro (and not rejoining untill it gets its finances straight, ie, never). The word 'temporary' is of course calming for the market.^[] And there are rumours of Greece already printing Drachmas: ^[] It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment, ^[
Erudite__Eric wrote:
or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment
It's popular with my German friends as well. There is a feeling in Germany, right now, that they are effectively having to carry the economies of the other Eurozone countries. This has nothing to do with any ideas of Germany running the ECB; it's just that they have a strong economy and they (quite rightly in my opinion) don't want to have to bear the burden of propping up the economies of countries that haven't worked quite so hard or honestly as they have.
Erudite__Eric wrote:
A kind of olive tree line division, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, are all, of course, olive oil producers. (Don't know how Ireland can be fitted in here, but it should be
That's easy; O'Live - there, now it's Irish.
Forgive your enemies - it messes with their heads
My blog | My articles | MoXAML PowerToys | Mole 2010 - debugging made easier - my favourite utility
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So, aparently Greece lied about its finances whend it joined the Euro, and should never have been let in in the first place.^[] Now there is talk of Greece temporarily leaving the euro (and not rejoining untill it gets its finances straight, ie, never). The word 'temporary' is of course calming for the market.^[] And there are rumours of Greece already printing Drachmas: ^[] It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment, ^[
I don’t believe this is going to happen no matter how spectacular and well deserved it may look. Adopting the Euro is one thing – it’s an existing currency with a fixed exchange rate with your national currency, but going back will be something completely different. They’ll have to create a bright new currency with unknown exchange rate to the Euro and the other convertible currencies i.e. the dollar. Nobody will know when to stop printing money. If they decide to play "Greek tricks" and devaluate their currency thus killing their debt this will also kill their economy. And believe me, there is nothing valuable in Greece apart from the people and the Acropolis. Bare hills, olives, lemons and a lot of heat is what they have. You cannot feed 12 million people with olives exports. If they lost their economy, industry and the tourists they will start starving - literally. Also there will be a significant immigration waves. I don’t think anyone wants all this, including their creditors.
There is only one Vera Farmiga and Salma Hayek is her prophet! Advertise here – minimum three posts per day are guaranteed.
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So, aparently Greece lied about its finances whend it joined the Euro, and should never have been let in in the first place.^[] Now there is talk of Greece temporarily leaving the euro (and not rejoining untill it gets its finances straight, ie, never). The word 'temporary' is of course calming for the market.^[] And there are rumours of Greece already printing Drachmas: ^[] It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment, ^[
Bring on the volatility baby! I have to get greedy sometime...
"I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson My comedy.
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By continuing all of these meeting and discussions, the euro banks get the opportunity to at least unload their Greek debt holdings. The smart ones are doing so already even though it's a 60 to 65 cent haircut. Soon enough, Greece will be removed from the EUC, it will then repudiate it's debt and begin printing 'new' Drachma currency. Oh and I'm pretty sure the sun is going to rise tomorrow. Just look in the east, you'll see it rising. :)
Chris Meech I am Canadian. [heard in a local bar] In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. [Yogi Berra] posting about Crystal Reports here is like discussing gay marriage on a catholic church’s website.[Nishant Sivakumar]
Chris Meech wrote:
By continuing all of these meeting and discussions, the euro banks get the opportunity to at least unload their Greek debt holdings
Yes, that could be a very good explanation of the general slowness of the process so far.
============================== Nothing to say.
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Erudite__Eric wrote:
or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment
It's popular with my German friends as well. There is a feeling in Germany, right now, that they are effectively having to carry the economies of the other Eurozone countries. This has nothing to do with any ideas of Germany running the ECB; it's just that they have a strong economy and they (quite rightly in my opinion) don't want to have to bear the burden of propping up the economies of countries that haven't worked quite so hard or honestly as they have.
Erudite__Eric wrote:
A kind of olive tree line division, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, are all, of course, olive oil producers. (Don't know how Ireland can be fitted in here, but it should be
That's easy; O'Live - there, now it's Irish.
Forgive your enemies - it messes with their heads
My blog | My articles | MoXAML PowerToys | Mole 2010 - debugging made easier - my favourite utility
Pete O'Hanlon wrote:
There is a feeling in Germany, right now, that they are effectively having to carry the economies of the other Eurozone countries.
They have been doing this since they attacked France in 1914... $90 million of gold paid to France then. 1939 lead to the EU and Germany paying France again through the CAP... As soon as a new generation came along they were always bound to resent the EU, let alone specific, failed members who lied to join the club. (And for that alone Greece should have been thrown out in 2004, it would have saved the hassle and the first 80 billion euro payout). It is going to be interesting, the next few months, thats for sure. :)
============================== Nothing to say.
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I don’t believe this is going to happen no matter how spectacular and well deserved it may look. Adopting the Euro is one thing – it’s an existing currency with a fixed exchange rate with your national currency, but going back will be something completely different. They’ll have to create a bright new currency with unknown exchange rate to the Euro and the other convertible currencies i.e. the dollar. Nobody will know when to stop printing money. If they decide to play "Greek tricks" and devaluate their currency thus killing their debt this will also kill their economy. And believe me, there is nothing valuable in Greece apart from the people and the Acropolis. Bare hills, olives, lemons and a lot of heat is what they have. You cannot feed 12 million people with olives exports. If they lost their economy, industry and the tourists they will start starving - literally. Also there will be a significant immigration waves. I don’t think anyone wants all this, including their creditors.
There is only one Vera Farmiga and Salma Hayek is her prophet! Advertise here – minimum three posts per day are guaranteed.
Deyan Georgiev wrote:
. If they decide to play "Greek tricks" and devaluate their currency thus killing their debt this will also kill their economy.
This is precisely what they have to do. And it wont kill their economy, but at the very least bring it in line with the devaluation carried out by the US, UK and Switzerland. The Euro itself could do with some devaluation just to bring it back in line with these other currencies that have done so, eventually Eurozone exports WILL be damaged. Already UK exports are up 16% (mostly to the EU). Thats 16% LESS of something paid for and produced in the Euro zone. Be it French potatoes, cars, or washing machines. Germany, a massive exporter, is going to suffer the most from this. And all, aparently, because it is scared of inflation. (I havent had many good reasons put forward for Germanies fear of devaluing the Euro). But if the Euro zone as a hwole could benefit from the Euro coming down a bit, the PIGS desperately need it. Austerity measures, where the govt spends less money, also kill growth. And growth kills the ability to pay back loans, loans which are more expensive the weker the ecconomy. If this leads to more austerity then you are in a bad downwards circle leading to stagnation. Devaluing on the otherhand, especially when done, as did the Swiss recently, just to keep in line with the others, has the benefit of maintaining spending and restoring growth with the risk of subsequent inflation in a few years. Of course that inflation can be dealt with then by taking some of the excess cash OUT of circulation. (Mandatory personal pension payments is my favourite, but for some reason the west seems to prefer interest rates)
Deyan Georgiev wrote:
and the tourists
And with a devalued currency they will flock back in their droves. The alternative is continued ecconomic stagnation, or a Euro collapse. The latter will cause shock waves which will cause a recession the world has never known before.
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Bring on the volatility baby! I have to get greedy sometime...
"I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson My comedy.
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Erudite__Eric wrote:
or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment
It's popular with my German friends as well. There is a feeling in Germany, right now, that they are effectively having to carry the economies of the other Eurozone countries. This has nothing to do with any ideas of Germany running the ECB; it's just that they have a strong economy and they (quite rightly in my opinion) don't want to have to bear the burden of propping up the economies of countries that haven't worked quite so hard or honestly as they have.
Erudite__Eric wrote:
A kind of olive tree line division, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, are all, of course, olive oil producers. (Don't know how Ireland can be fitted in here, but it should be
That's easy; O'Live - there, now it's Irish.
Forgive your enemies - it messes with their heads
My blog | My articles | MoXAML PowerToys | Mole 2010 - debugging made easier - my favourite utility
On the other hand, these same countries depress the value of the Euro, keeping down the cost of German exports. If Germany were to leave, would'nt the Mark be a much stronger currency (i.e. seen as a 'safe haven'), thus raising the cost of their exports? Might impact German employment.
Pete O'Hanlon wrote:
That's easy; O'Live - there, now it's Irish.
:-D
Be dogmatic, not thoughtful. It's easier, and you get bumper stickers.- Anon.
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So, aparently Greece lied about its finances whend it joined the Euro, and should never have been let in in the first place.^[] Now there is talk of Greece temporarily leaving the euro (and not rejoining untill it gets its finances straight, ie, never). The word 'temporary' is of course calming for the market.^[] And there are rumours of Greece already printing Drachmas: ^[] It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro, a very popular UK sentiment, ^[
Erudite__Eric wrote:
It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro
As a resident of Geermany, I like this Idea. I dont have to pay the takes for other's goof up but who am I to influnce this
cheers, Super ------------------------------------------ Too much of good is bad,mix some evil in it
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Erudite__Eric wrote:
It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro
As a resident of Geermany, I like this Idea. I dont have to pay the takes for other's goof up but who am I to influnce this
cheers, Super ------------------------------------------ Too much of good is bad,mix some evil in it
super wrote:
I dont have to pay the takes for other's goof up but who am I to influnce this
A voter. Ultimately it's the voters who the politicians have to answer to.
Forgive your enemies - it messes with their heads
My blog | My articles | MoXAML PowerToys | Mole 2010 - debugging made easier - my favourite utility
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On the other hand, these same countries depress the value of the Euro, keeping down the cost of German exports. If Germany were to leave, would'nt the Mark be a much stronger currency (i.e. seen as a 'safe haven'), thus raising the cost of their exports? Might impact German employment.
Pete O'Hanlon wrote:
That's easy; O'Live - there, now it's Irish.
:-D
Be dogmatic, not thoughtful. It's easier, and you get bumper stickers.- Anon.
ict558 wrote:
If Germany were to leave, would'nt the Mark be a much stronger currency
Yes, so strong it would destroy exports and force Germany to devalue it. The fact is that the Euro needs devaluing, regardless of how it impacts Germany.
============================== Nothing to say.
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Erudite__Eric wrote:
It is either that or Germany leaving the Euro
As a resident of Geermany, I like this Idea. I dont have to pay the takes for other's goof up but who am I to influnce this
cheers, Super ------------------------------------------ Too much of good is bad,mix some evil in it
super wrote:
As a resident of Geermany, I like this Idea
Why? --edit-- Serious question, so I dont understand the one vote. Anyway, as I see it, if Germany leaves the Euro then Holland, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France and Luxembourg will want to go it and form a new currency. This results in a new Euro. Since many countries currently hold euros as foreign reserves it will be a nightmare switching their old, devalued euros for new and cause an ecconomic upheaval. Better to eject the failures from the Euro and return it to stability. This sends a strong message to the world that the Eurozone is serious and can manage its currency.
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wizardzz wrote:
Bring on the volatility baby!
How much more do you want! :D
============================== Nothing to say.
So much that our systems almost can't handle it!
"I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours. " — Hunter S. Thompson My comedy.