Greece prepares to exit the Euro
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It will be an orderly enough exit provided it is planned, known, and transparent. Holders of greek debt will lose out, but tough. Thats the risk. Greece itself will be able to devalue it currency, print enough cash to cover its needs and in a few years will have recovered.
============================== Nothing to say.
French Banks will be pounded though, may even see one or two bite the dust. France would also likely lose it's Triple A rating.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
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Greece to hold referendum on EU debt deal [^] I heard the ex Greek finance minister saying that if Greece defaults they will exit the Euro. There are also rumours circling that new Drachmas are being printed. So, why would Greece hold a referendum on whether to acept the bailout? Because if the people reject it, the politicians have a clear go ahead to exit the Euro which will benefit their ecconomy bewcause they can devalue it, writing off debt and encouraging tourism and whatever exports they have. Of course after the day long eupohoria over the latest Greek bailout/Eurozone patch up, in detail, it is a feeble thing: The 50% 'haircut' (aka, debt write off) to be suffered by private holders of Greek debt is 'voluntary'. Voluntary? Who is going to volounteer to loose 50% of their investement? The leveraging of the EFSF from 200 bn to 1 tr by offering it as an attractive investement package (Klaus Reglings 'new instruments' 'optimistic')[^], somewhat backed up by a kind of insurance (details to be worked out later) was obviously totally unappealing to the Chineese. As it will be to any other investor (especialy if they are expected to lose money). The only shred of hope, which the Inflation Terrified Germans wanted totally off the table, but the French and Britich insisted on keeping in reserve was QE as a kind of 'Euro nuculear shelter'. OK OK, inflation in Germany lead to the rise of Faschism, but really, cause and effect! Just because it happened once doesnt mean thet if by QE the Euro inflates 6 million indesirables are heading off to the gas ovens! Get over it Germany! QE the damn currency or accept the loss of Greece and Portugal, and possibly Italy! The Greeks know this, and IMO are therefore playing a game here to see how far they can push Germany into doing so. If Germany doesnt, then the Greeks will exit the euro. --edit-- Just found this commentary:
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It will be an orderly enough exit provided it is planned, known, and transparent. Holders of greek debt will lose out, but tough. Thats the risk. Greece itself will be able to devalue it currency, print enough cash to cover its needs and in a few years will have recovered.
============================== Nothing to say.
I am expecting chaos rather than orderly exit. An exit of this kind has not been tried before, consequently, there will be many unknowns and casualties for Greek and non-Greek alike. And especially for the people. The Greek political may hope for planned, known and transparent activities in exiting the Euro, but the financial muscle men will ensure they get their pound of flesh before the process concludes. And the Greek people themselves will suffer that much more than they are now considering they spend more in imports than they export. A near-future Greece that tries to go down the route of "protectionism" will soon find that also becomes a failed policy.
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French Banks will be pounded though, may even see one or two bite the dust. France would also likely lose it's Triple A rating.
------------------------------------ I will never again mention that I was the poster of the One Millionth Lounge Post, nor that it was complete drivel. Dalek Dave CCC Link[^] Trolls[^]
Dalek Dave wrote:
French Banks will be pounded though
They have been stupid, and deserve to lose out. As for Tripple A, yeah, probably, but again, it is deserved. We have to stop dressing up the fraud and incompetence over the last 8 years shown by the financial system. And we have to make those responsible pay.
============================== Nothing to say.
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I am expecting chaos rather than orderly exit. An exit of this kind has not been tried before, consequently, there will be many unknowns and casualties for Greek and non-Greek alike. And especially for the people. The Greek political may hope for planned, known and transparent activities in exiting the Euro, but the financial muscle men will ensure they get their pound of flesh before the process concludes. And the Greek people themselves will suffer that much more than they are now considering they spend more in imports than they export. A near-future Greece that tries to go down the route of "protectionism" will soon find that also becomes a failed policy.
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
An exit of this kind has not been tried before
2000, Argentina I believe. It went well actually, in a dew years they were back to growth. 'Death by a thousand cuts', as the Greek austerity measures have been described will take a decade to get over. It will be good for the Euro too, Show the world its governors mean bsuiness and can get tough.
Richard A. Abbott wrote:
And the Greek people themselves will suffer that much more than they are now considering they spend more in imports than they export
That will readdress itself. They will import less, export more, and tourism will pick up a lot.
============================== Nothing to say.
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Greece to hold referendum on EU debt deal [^] I heard the ex Greek finance minister saying that if Greece defaults they will exit the Euro. There are also rumours circling that new Drachmas are being printed. So, why would Greece hold a referendum on whether to acept the bailout? Because if the people reject it, the politicians have a clear go ahead to exit the Euro which will benefit their ecconomy bewcause they can devalue it, writing off debt and encouraging tourism and whatever exports they have. Of course after the day long eupohoria over the latest Greek bailout/Eurozone patch up, in detail, it is a feeble thing: The 50% 'haircut' (aka, debt write off) to be suffered by private holders of Greek debt is 'voluntary'. Voluntary? Who is going to volounteer to loose 50% of their investement? The leveraging of the EFSF from 200 bn to 1 tr by offering it as an attractive investement package (Klaus Reglings 'new instruments' 'optimistic')[^], somewhat backed up by a kind of insurance (details to be worked out later) was obviously totally unappealing to the Chineese. As it will be to any other investor (especialy if they are expected to lose money). The only shred of hope, which the Inflation Terrified Germans wanted totally off the table, but the French and Britich insisted on keeping in reserve was QE as a kind of 'Euro nuculear shelter'. OK OK, inflation in Germany lead to the rise of Faschism, but really, cause and effect! Just because it happened once doesnt mean thet if by QE the Euro inflates 6 million indesirables are heading off to the gas ovens! Get over it Germany! QE the damn currency or accept the loss of Greece and Portugal, and possibly Italy! The Greeks know this, and IMO are therefore playing a game here to see how far they can push Germany into doing so. If Germany doesnt, then the Greeks will exit the euro. --edit-- Just found this commentary:
Erudite__Eric wrote:
The 50% 'haircut' (aka, debt write off) to be suffered by private holders of Greek debt is 'voluntary'. Voluntary? Who is going to volounteer to loose 50% of their investement?
Those who are facing the very high possibility to lose 100% of their investments if EU doesn’t bail out Greece and the country declare bankruptcy.
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Yep. An utterly corrupt country that should never have been part of the EU let a lone the Euro. And they are talking about Albania joining! :wtf:
============================== Nothing to say.
Breathe, they are talking about Turkey for so many years and nothing happens. I think Croatia will be the last joining country (and AFAIK the country is okay) for the coming decades (if EU survives so far after some “repair”, which I hope so).
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Greece to hold referendum on EU debt deal [^] I heard the ex Greek finance minister saying that if Greece defaults they will exit the Euro. There are also rumours circling that new Drachmas are being printed. So, why would Greece hold a referendum on whether to acept the bailout? Because if the people reject it, the politicians have a clear go ahead to exit the Euro which will benefit their ecconomy bewcause they can devalue it, writing off debt and encouraging tourism and whatever exports they have. Of course after the day long eupohoria over the latest Greek bailout/Eurozone patch up, in detail, it is a feeble thing: The 50% 'haircut' (aka, debt write off) to be suffered by private holders of Greek debt is 'voluntary'. Voluntary? Who is going to volounteer to loose 50% of their investement? The leveraging of the EFSF from 200 bn to 1 tr by offering it as an attractive investement package (Klaus Reglings 'new instruments' 'optimistic')[^], somewhat backed up by a kind of insurance (details to be worked out later) was obviously totally unappealing to the Chineese. As it will be to any other investor (especialy if they are expected to lose money). The only shred of hope, which the Inflation Terrified Germans wanted totally off the table, but the French and Britich insisted on keeping in reserve was QE as a kind of 'Euro nuculear shelter'. OK OK, inflation in Germany lead to the rise of Faschism, but really, cause and effect! Just because it happened once doesnt mean thet if by QE the Euro inflates 6 million indesirables are heading off to the gas ovens! Get over it Germany! QE the damn currency or accept the loss of Greece and Portugal, and possibly Italy! The Greeks know this, and IMO are therefore playing a game here to see how far they can push Germany into doing so. If Germany doesnt, then the Greeks will exit the euro. --edit-- Just found this commentary:
http://news.uk.msn.com/world/europe-heaps-pressure-on-greece[^] I believe if they remove the grease-paint from the Papandreou’s face, we will find out a blushing spot with the exact shape of the Angela Merkel’s right palm.
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http://news.uk.msn.com/world/europe-heaps-pressure-on-greece[^] I believe if they remove the grease-paint from the Papandreou’s face, we will find out a blushing spot with the exact shape of the Angela Merkel’s right palm.
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